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How Is the Market at All-Time Highs?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Is the Market at All-Time Highs?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Earnings and Economic Growth Continue to Support This Market?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Flash PMIs the Key Report This Week (More Insight into Stagflation Risks)

Futures are moderately lower on higher oil prices (up 5%) as Iran backtracked on its commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Iran fired on two commercial ships transiting the Strait while the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, escalating tensions between the two countries.

Despite that escalation, ceasefire talks between the two countries are still expected to occur on Tuesday and markets still fully expect a lasting ceasefire to be agreed to in the relatively near future.

Today, focus will stay on geopolitics and as long as the ceasefire talks in Pakistan aren’t cancelled, markets should mostly ignore any negative geopolitical headlines.

Earnings season also rolls on this week and some notable reports today include: CLF ($-0.40), ALK ($-1.61), STLD ($2.79).

 

Technical Take – All Time Highs (Bull vs. Bear Case)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take – All Time Highs (Bull vs. Bear Case)

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as markets digested the new highs.

There was no notable news on the U.S. and Iran overnight and the consensus view is that the ceasefire will be extended with an announcement coming any day.

Today focus will remain on Iran although as mentioned, a ceasefire extension is already priced in so if/when that’s announced, it likely won’t be an incremental positive catalyst.

Away from geopolitics, there are three notable economic reports including: Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 12.0) and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).  Given stagflation fears, solid activity that’s near expectations will be welcomed by markets.  There are also two Fed speakers today, Williams (8:35 a.m. ET) and Miran (10:35 a.m. ET), with Williams the more important of the two (he’s part of Fed leadership).  If he’s a bit hawkish, that could marginally pressure markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up with several important results today including: TSM ($3.31), ABT ($1.14), PEP ($1.55), NFLX ($0.76), AA ($1.60).