Posts

How Much Has the Bullish Case Deteriorated?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Has the Bullish Case Deteriorated?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can AI Enthusiasm Stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Important Growth Data Despite the Short Week

Futures are slightly higher as investors digest last week’s volatility following a generally quiet weekend of news.

Most global markets are higher on momentum from Friday’s U.S. rally, except Japanese shares which fell sharply (down more than 2%) after unions negotiated more pay increases, boosting chances for a rate hike.

Economically, the only report was German IFO Business Expectations which missed expectations (90.6 vs. (E) 91.4).

This is a holiday shortened week but the “catch up” in economic data from the government shutdown will continue despite only three and a half trading days.  As a general rule, the more Goldilocks the data (so basically at expectations) the better as it’ll keep growth expectations stable but boost rate cut chances.

Economic reports we’re watching today include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.12) and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).

 

Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech Is Weak?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech is Weak?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can AI Enthusiasm Rebound? (NVDA Earnings on Wednesday Are Key)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The First Look at November Data (Flash PMIs on Friday)

Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rebound and following a quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was positive news as the White House confirmed reduced tariffs on numerous food products as it aims to boost affordability.

Economically, the only notable report was Italian CPI which rose 1.3%, as expected.

Today we have the first economic report for November, Empire Manufacturing (6.10), and numerous Fed speakers.  Williams (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (3:35 p.m. ET) are the most important speakers today but we will also hear from Jefferson (9:30 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and Logan (7:55 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, if Empire manufacturing is stable and the tone of Fed speak today is open to a December cut (especially from Williams and Waller) that should help extend Friday’s rebound.

 

Is Something Wrong with AI Enthusiasm?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Something Wrong with AI Enthusiasm?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Earnings Help the Tech/AI Stocks Stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: What Will Delayed Data Tell Us (Growth Stable, or Not?)

Futures are moderately higher as the Senate voted to, effectively, end the government shutdown later this week.

The Senate passed an important procedural vote late Sunday night that paved the way for the government to reopen later this week, ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history and removing an increasing economic headwind.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

There are no economic reports today so focus will be on Fed speak (Daly at 8:30 a.m. ET), and earnings, as AI darling CRWV ($-0.39) reports after the close (and the stronger the report, the better for tech and the market).