Could the Yield Curve Be Wrong This Time?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Could the Yield Curve Be Wrong This Time?
  • Chart: 10s-2s Yield Curve Spread Near Multi-Decade Lows

Futures are lower this morning as economic data confirmed weakness in the global manufacturing sector while the RBA unexpectedly paused their rate hiking cycle at the conclusion of their latest meeting overnight.

Economically, China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a contractionary reading of 49.2 vs. (E) 50.1 while the Eurozone PMI met estimates at a very weak reading of 42.7, underscoring the challenges facing the global manufacturing sector.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports to watch: ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 46.5), Construction Spending (E: 0.6%), and JOLTS (E: 9.650 million). Investors will be looking for better than feared manufacturing data in the U.S. and signs that the domestic labor market is softening but not collapsing.

Earnings season also continues with multiple notable companies reporting quarterly results today including: UBER ($0.00), PFE ($0.57), CAT ($4.51), and JBLU ($0.40) before the open and AMD ($0.57), SBUX ($0.95), and AIG ($1.54) after the close.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on November 25th, 2022

U.S. bond market holds steady in shortened post-Thanksgiving session

“Looking at the curve, the 10s-2s yield curve spread remained near a multidecade low of nearly minus-80 basis points. That deep of an inversion suggests that the Fed’s current policy and expected path of future policy are far too restrictive for the state of the economy and growth expectations, which will almost certainly end in a recession — and potentially a severe one given the scope of the current inversions across the Treasury yield curve,” said Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article. 

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on July 12th, 2022

Bond yields fall with key part of yield curve hits lowest level since 2007

The widening spread between the 2-year and the 10-year is signaling a very clear recession warning, especially if it reaches 15 basis points…wrote Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on April 18th, 2022

10-year yield highest since late 2018 as Treasury selloff continues

Looking at the yield curve, the 10s-2s spread continued to widen out and is now smack in the middle of the 30-40 basis point resistance range, and we think that’s a critical resistance level…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

The Yield Curve Is Hitting Resistance

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • 10s-2s Into Resistance (Chart)
  • U.S. Consumer Price Index Takeaways
  • Chart – WTI Crude Oil Hits Technical Resistance

Stock futures are attempting to stabilize this morning while global shares were mixed overnight as traders assess the latest economic data ahead of today’s unofficial start to Q1 earnings season and another important U.S. inflation print.

Economic data was negative and again pointed to stagflation overnight as Japanese Machine Orders plunged -9.8% vs. (E) -1.5% while U.K. CPI jumped to 7.0% vs. (E) 6.7%.

Today is lining up to be a very busy session from a news flow and catalyst standpoint as we kick off Q1 earnings season with reports from: JPM ($2.73), BLK ($8.92), and DAL (-$1.33) ahead of the bell. Investors will be looking for solid results to confirm the strength and resilience of corporate America.

Then we will get the March PPI report at 8:30 a.m. ET (E: 1.1%, 10.6%), but as long as the headlines are not materially hotter than expected, and the “core figures” are in line with estimates, stocks could mount a relief rally as the market has become near-term oversold.


In the afternoon, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (12:30 p.m. ET) as well as a 30-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. And if bond yields hold below the highs from earlier this week, that should be an additional tailwind for stocks today, especially the beaten-down tech sector.

Is the 10’s-2’s Spread Outdated?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the 10’s-2’s Spread Outdated?
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update (Prices Back Near the Recent Highs)

Futures are modestly higher following good economic data and as oil didn’t continue Wednesday’s rally (at least not overnight).

Economic data was solid as both the March EU Flash Composite PMI (54.5 vs. (E) 54.1.) and the UK Flash Composite PMI (59.7 vs. (E) 58.7) beat estimates, implying the Russia/Ukraine war wasn’t materially slowing growth.

Today focus will be on economic data, specifically the March Flash PMIs (E: 56.7).  With inflation still high and the Fed threatening a 50 bps hike in May, the PMIs need to give markets a “goldilocks” number to extend the early rally, as a “Too Hot” number will invite even more Fed tightening, while a “Too Cold” number will increase stagflation risks.  Outside of the PMIs, we also get Jobless Claims (210K) and Durable Goods (E: -0.5%) although they shouldn’t move markets.

From the Fed today we get Kashkari (8:30 a.m. ET), Waller (9:10 a.m. ET) and Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) and of the three, Waller is the most important (he’s Fed leadership and if he hints at a 50 bp hike expect that to mildly weigh on stocks).

Why Aren’t TIPS Rising?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Aren’t TIPS Rising?
  • What Could Send 10’s-2’s Closer to Inversion?

Futures are slightly lower as markets continue to digest Wednesday’s Fed decision (50 bps in March or five hikes in 2022) amidst mixed earnings results.

AAPL posted better than expected earnings and the stock was up 3% overnight, but overall results continue to be mixed and that’s contributing to market volatility.

Today’s focus will be on important inflation data and the reason is clear:  If the inflation data is materially stronger than estimates, that will only encourage the Fed to get more hawkish/unpredictable, and that will add to the headwinds on stocks.  The key inflation numbers to watch today are: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.5%, 4.8%), Employment Cost Index: (E: 1.2%, 4.1%), and the Inflation Expectations in the 10:00 a.m. Consumer Sentiment Index.

We also get some notable earnings today, including CAT ($2.22), CVX ($3.10), SYC ($1.47), and CL ($0.79).  But, barring a major disappointment, they shouldn’t move markets.