S&P 500 Market Multiple Levels Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • S&P 500 Market Multiple Targets – December Update (Shareable PDF Available)
  • Housing Market Update: Where Are the Declines?
  • Housing Starts Come in “Hot” – Chart

Stock futures are modestly lower and bond yields are continuing to fall. As cooler-than-expected European inflation data o/n has investors weighing simmering recession fears.

Economically, U.K. CPI fell from 4.6% to 3.9% vs. (E) 4.3% in November while German PPI was down -7.9% vs. (E) -7.5%. The data is being digested by some as “too cold”. This is causing renewed recession worries which is weighing on risk assets this morning.

Today, we will get two economic reports in the morning: Consumer Confidence (E: 103.4) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.775 million). The market will want to see more signs of a resilient consumer to reaffirm soft landing hopes and keep recession fears contained.

Finally, in the afternoon there is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could shed light on how sustainable the bond market rally is. There is a risk that a weak auction outcome could pour some cold water on bonds and lead to some profit taking in equities ahead of more critical economic data due in the back half of the week.

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