History suggests the answer is probably no

History suggests the answer is probably no. More often, the reversal of a yield-curve inversion has signaled that the wheels are about to come off the economy and the stock market with it, according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader and founder of Sevens Report Research.

Market Multiple Chart

Yield Curves and Real Rates

What’s in Today’s Report: Yield curves and real rates, Ceasefire talks between Ukraine and Russia, Quarterly Letter sign up, and more…

Barron's logo

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on March 24, 2022

Implying the Russia/Ukraine war wasn’t materially slowing growth…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. 

Have the Real Headwinds on Stocks Even Started Yet?

What’s in Today’s Report: Have the real headwinds on stocks even started yet? Is economic growth stable? Jobs Report on Friday, and more…

What’s Driving Stocks

What’s in Today’s Report: What’s driving stocks, Natural gas update (New highs ahead?), this week’s economic data, and more…

Is the 10’s-2’s Spread Outdated?

What’s in Today’s Report: Is the 10’s-2’s Spread outdated? EIA analysis and oil market update (Prices back near the recent highs)

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch on March 17, 2022

Upwards of 3 million barrels a day in Russian oil supply could be lost in the…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.