Jobs Day (Slight Shift in Expectations)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day (Slightly Shift in Expectations)
  • Washington Update  –  Why Manchin’s Op-Ed is Important

Futures are modestly higher as markets ignored disappointing economic data ahead of today’s jobs report.

Global PMIs were disappointing as the Chinese Services PMI dropped to 46.7 vs. (E) 52.3 while the EU (59.0 vs. (E) 59.5) and UK (54.8 vs. (E) 55.0) Composite PMIs both slightly missed estimates

Japanese stocks surged 2% after PM Suga resigned, igniting speculation the government will unleash more stimulus.

Today the Employment Situation report is the key event, and the expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 740K, UE Rate: 5.2%, Wages: 3.9% yoy.  Because of the soft ADP report, the “whisper number” is slightly underwhelming vs. expectations (say around 500k), so the market may be a bit more sensitive if the actual jobs report is slightly stronger than expectations (it may cause a mild decline in stocks, but nothing major).

We also get the ISM Services PMI (E: 62.0) and markets will want to see stability in that PMI.