Jobs Day (A Critical Day for Markets)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)
- December Retail Sales Takeaways – Consumer Spending Sputtered into Yearend
Stock futures are trading cautiously higher with focus on the delayed release of today’s January jobs report following a quiet night of news.
Economically, Chinese CPI cooled to 0.2% Y/Y vs. (E) 0.4% in January, down from 0.8% Y/Y in December, a favorably “cool” inflation print but one that is not materially impacting markets ahead of the BLS report today.
This morning, traders will be keenly focused on the tardy release of the January BLS Employment Situation Report: (E: +67K Job Adds, 4.4% UE Rate, +3.6% Wage Growth). After a swath of soft labor market reports last week, markets will want to see a solid/”Goldilocks” dataset today to ease worries about a sudden downturn in the labor market while a “too-hot” release could spark hawkish money flows and subsequent volatility in equity markets.
Looking beyond the jobs report, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that will offer a good read on the bond market’s interpretation of the latest BLS report. Solid demand will shore up expectations for an accommodative Fed stance in 2026 and support risk assets today.
On the Fed front, there are three officials speaking today: Schmid (10:10 a.m. ET), Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET), and Hammack (4:00 p.m. ET), and markets will be looking for clues as to when the FOMC will cut rates next amid the fresh context of today’s jobs numbers.
Finally, earnings season continues with SHOP ($0.41), MCD ($3.04), TMUS ($2.03), APP ($2.89), CSCO ($0.82), and ALB ($-0.40) all due to report Q4 results today.
