Fed Expectations (What’s The Best Scenario?)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Right Fed Expectation for This Market
  • More Proof There’s No Chinese Buyers Strike for Treasuries (That’s a Positive)

Futures are modestly lower following a night of bad micro and macro-economic news.

On the micro front, Broadcom (AVGO), a major semi-conductor company, missed earnings and provided ugly guidance for 2H ‘19, citing the trade war as a major negative on demand.

On the macro front, Chinese economic data was on balance disappointing as Fixed Asset Investment and Industrial Production both missed estimates, although Retail Sales was a mild beat.

Looking ahead to today, the major number is the Retail Sales report (E: 0.7%), and the market would welcome a slightly disappointing number as it would further solidify the expectations for a Fed rate cut in July, and likely spur a rebound this morning. We also get Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 98.4) this morning as well.