What’s in Today’s Report:
- ECB Preview (This is more important to U.S. stocks than it seems)
- Jobs Report Preview
Futures are drifting slightly lower following a quiet night as markets await the ECB decision later this morning.
Economic data generally met expectations overnight as Euro Zone Q4 GDP was 1.1% vs. (E) 1.2% while Chinese FX reserves were in line at $3.09T.
Today the key event will be the ECB Decision at 7:45 a.m. ET and then the ECB Press Conference at 8:30 a.m. ET. For this to meet dovish expectations (and not be a disappointment for stocks) we’ll need to see 1) An extension of the promise not to raise rates until 2020 and 2) A strong hint more TLTROs are coming. This decision will have direct impacts on Treasuries and stocks (more inside the report).
Away from the ECB we also get Jobless Claims (E: 223K) and Q4 Productivity and Costs (E: 1.6%, 1.8%) plus there’s one Fed speaker: Brainard (12:15 p.m. ET).