“Let me be clear: The only reason we do not have a stimulus bill passed yet is because the economy and…” explained Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
“Let me be clear: The only reason we do not have a stimulus bill passed yet is because the economy and the markets are performing…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are seeing a marginal oversold bounce after Thursday’s big sell off, as newswires were quiet overnight.
Economic data again disappointed, as German Manufacturers’ Orders rose 2.8% vs. (E) 6.2%, while the UK Construction PMI fell to 54.6 vs. (E) 58.5.
Both reports, combined with other lack luster data this week, are limiting the size of the bounce this morning.
Today the focus will be on the Employment Situation Report and the expectations are as follows: Jobs Adds: 1.413M, UE Rate: 9.9%. As mentioned, the “best” outcome for this report is a strong number towards 2 MM job adds, but not so strong that it relieves pressure on Congress to pass a stimulus bill. A very soft number (less than 1MM job adds) likely adds to yesterday’s downside.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower on digestion of Wednesday’s rally and some disappointing economic data.
EU Retail Sales badly missed estimates (-1.3% vs. (E) 1.5%) which is slightly increasing concern about the EU economic recovery.
Global August service and composite PMIs (China/EU) were generally in-line with expectations while the British service PMI slightly missed estimates (58.8 vs. (E) 60.1). Bottom line, the numbers weren’t great, but they weren’t awful either and generally speaking they won’t change the current market outlook.
Today there are two important economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 977K) and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (E: 56.8), and the market will want to see the actual data close to or better than both numbers to reinforce the economic recovery is ongoing. There’s also one Fed speaker today, Evans at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Finally, it’s important to note that vaccine “chatter” is getting louder and the chance we get a vaccine announcement before the election (November 3rd) is rising. Yesterday the CDC formally notified all 50 states to be ready to distribute a vaccine by late October/early November, so I want everyone to be aware of that, as a vaccine announcement would be another positive for stocks.
“Once different industry participants start sending people out to the field again and visiting customers, everyone else will follow. Zoom is a…” said Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading at record highs this morning amid renewed stimulus hopes and soft economic data overseas.
Late yesterday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin urged Congress to pass new stimulus funding and expressed willingness to sit down with Congressional Democrats to work towards a deal.
German Retail Sales were -0.9% vs. (E) +0.5% in July bolstering the case that more stimulus is needed globally.
Today, we will get an initial look at labor market data for the month of August via the ADP Employment Report (E: 850K) which could move markets if there is a material surprise (either way) in the headline. Data on Factory Orders for July (E: 5.8%) will also be released this morning.
There are multiple Fed speakers today including: Williams (10:00 a.m. ET), Mester (12:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (3:00 p.m. ET), and Daly (6:00 p.m. ET), from which the market will look for additional signals that the FOMC will remain very accommodative for the foreseeable future.
Finally, the next stimulus package has jumped back into the forefront of the market’s focus so any developments regarding progress towards a deal will be well-received by risk assets including stocks while concerns of an ongoing stalemate will be a headwind.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat and overseas equities were little changed overnight as investors digest the recent run to fresh record highs in the S&P amid very quiet news flow.
Internationally, Germany extended a “crisis job support program” which has helped keep millions employed since Q1 lockdowns. The extension is bolstering sentiment globally and helping EU shares modestly outperform today.
There were no notable or market-moving economic reports overnight.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch ahead of the bell: Durable Goods Orders (E: 4.3%) and one Fed official scheduled to speak shortly after the open: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET).
The limited number of catalysts today will likely leave stocks to trade with a sense of “Powell paralysis” ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech during the Economic Policy Symposium tomorrow morning however markets will remain sensitive to any further vaccine headlines or stimulus bill developments.
“What does that mean for us? It means stay long stocks in longer-dated accounts, and make sure…” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye recently explained to Yahoo Finance.
“While the early use authorization for plasma is clearly a positive, from a market standpoint a vaccine remains a true…” says Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
”Futures are moderately higher on Covid-19 treatment optimism following the FDA’s authorization of plasma treatment…” wrote The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye before the open. Click here to read the full article.
