Micro Positives vs. Macro Negatives

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Micro-Economic Positives vs. Macro-Economic Negatives
  • Weekly Market Preview:  COVID Trends and Economic Data
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Week

Futures are moderately higher following solid economic data and positive lockdown comments from Dr. Fauchi.

Global July manufacturing PMIs were generally solid, as the EU PMI beat estimates (62.9 vs. (E) 62.6) while the UK PMI was in line (60.4).  The Chinese PMI missed estimates (50.4 vs. (E) 50.8) but remained above 50.  Overall, the PMIs implied the global economic recovery was on going.

Dr. Fauchi stated over the weekend that he did not think the U.S. would reinstitute lockdowns despite rising COVID cases (which is a positive for the economy).

Today the key economic report will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 60.8) and markets will be looking for a “Goldilocks” number – one that meets or exceeds expectations but is not so strong that it makes the Fed less dovish.  COVID headlines will also potentially move markets but unless there are signs of people changing their behavior (TSA Throughput, consumer surveys) then COVID headlines shouldn’t move markets.

Economic Breaker Panel (Some Loss of Momentum)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel (Some Loss of Momentum)

Futures are moderately lower on disappointing earnings and more negative COVID commentary.

AMZN earnings disappointed investors and the stock was down –6% after hours and that’s weighing on futures.

On COVID, a CDC internal memo called the Delta variant potentially as contagious as Chickenpox, although markets remain generally optimistic given positive corporate commentary on economic activity.

Today the key number will be the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.5%, 3.7%) which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.  If that number runs well above expectations (so above 4% yoy) expect a “hawkish” reaction from markets (yields up, stocks flat to down).   Also today we get Consumer Sentiment (E: 80.8) and have one Fed speaker, Bullard at 9:00 a.m. ET, but they shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front, much of the discussion this morning is on AMZN but there are some other notable reports out this morning including:  PG ($1.08), CAT ($2.38), XOM ($1.02), ABBV ($3.11), CVX ($1.54).

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are marginally higher following some infrastructure progress combined with a bounce in Chinese stocks.

The bi-partisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill (which the market wants) comfortably passed a key Senate vote on Wednesday, although it still remains a long way from becoming law.

Chinese shares bounced as officials tried to calm markets, although nothing materially positive happened and this should be viewed as nothing more than an oversold bounce.

Today the financial media focus will be on Initial Q2 GDP (E: 8.0%), but as we and others have said, GDP doesn’t usually move markets, and likely won’t today.  Instead, Jobless Claims (E: 390K) will be the key economic report today, specifically whether the increase from last week continues, or is reversed (if it’s reversed, that will be a mild positive for stocks).  We also get Pending Home Sales (E: -0.8%) but that shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front, the key number today comes after the close from AMZN ($12.22), while we’ll also be watching MA ($1.72) and MO ($1.17).

Vaccine Mandates vs. Mask Mandates

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Vaccine Mandates vs. Mask Mandates
  • Durable Goods Data Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are little changed this morning as Chinese markets began to stabilize amid easing concerns about increased regulation while focus turns to the Fed.

In company specific news, MSFT and GOOGL are trading higher after reporting record earnings while AAPL is down on disappointing guidance.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave markets focused on the FOMC Decision (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET). But as long as there is not a materially hawkish shift in tone, the market reaction should be relatively muted.

Additionally, there are some major companies releasing Q2 earnings results today including: PFE ($0.98), BA (-$0.65), MCD ($2.12), GD ($2.52) before the open, and FB ($3.03), PYPL ($1.14), and QCOM ($1.67) after the close.

FOMC Preview

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Positive COVID News?

Futures are modestly lower again for the same reasons as Monday:  Global equity pressure following another sharp decline in Chinese shares (Hang Seng was down 4% again).

There was no new regulatory news from China overnight but fears remain and sellers remained aggressive.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are three notable economic reports, Durable Goods (E: 2.1%), Cash-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.5%) and U.S. Consumer Confidence (E: 124.9) but unless there’s a major surprise from one or more, I don’t expect them to move markets and with the Fed looming tomorrow and key earnings after the close, today shouldn’t be too volatile.

On the earnings front, today is probably the biggest single day of earnings of the season, and key reports (mostly after the close) include:  AAPL ($1.00), AMD ($0.54), MSFT ($1.90), GOOGL ($19.89), UPS ($ 2.75), and MMM ($2.25).

All About Demand

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • All About Demand
  • Weekly Market Preview:  The Fed and Inflation
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Fed Meeting, Core PCE Price Index and GDP.

Futures are marginally lower as increased concerns about regulation in China caused a sharp drop in Chinese shares, and that’s weighing on global equities.

The Hang Seng dropped more than 4% on Monday on fears of increased regulation from the Chinese government, following reports China was going to make the education business sector “not for profit.”

COVID headlines remained generally unchanged over the weekend as cases continued to rise in the U.S, although governments continue to resist restrictions and lockdowns.

Today there’s only one notable economic report, New Home Sales (E: 800k), and that shouldn’t move markets.  On the earnings front, the key report today comes after the close (TSLA $0.96), so focus will be on COVID headlines and if there are any reports of increased restrictions or lockdowns here in the U.S., that will hit stocks.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Coinspeaker on July 22, 2021

Wall Street Keeps Up with Upward Momentum for Second Consecutive Day, Dow Jones Up 280 Points

In a report on Wednesday, Thomas Essaye of Sevens Report Research said “Tuesday was a textbook oversold bounce following Monday’s…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Report Door on July 20, 2021

Stock market is at risk of a correction if this happens amid the spread of the Delta variant

This market is vulnerable to a bigger pullback or correction if there’s a new negative…warns Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye in a research note to clients. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 21, 2021

Chipotle Rises, Netflix Falls, and the Dow Continues Rebounding

Futures are modestly higher thanks to continued momentum from Tuesday’s…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 21, 2021

Stocks Close Up. Investors Focus on Earnings and Covid.

Companies like Chipotle and United Airlines said the increase in COVID cases was not…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.