Are Investors Expecting Too Much from This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Investors Expecting Too Much from This Market?

Futures are modestly lower following a generally quiet night as Biden’s stimulus plan met market expectations.

President Elect Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plan is being met by a “sell the news” reaction as markets already priced in most of what was included, while easy passage of the bill is not guaranteed (this could still take months to become law).

Economically, UK Industrial Production missed estimates, while EU Exports were in line with expectations but neither number is moving markets.

Today focus will be on economic data, as we get the first data point from January via the  Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 6.0) and markets will want to see stability in the data to imply that the recovery isn’t losing too much momentum. Other notable reports include Retail Sales (E: -0.1%), Industrial Production (E: 0.5%) and PPI (E: 0.4%).  There’s also one Fed speaker, Kashkari at 11:30 a.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season begins today with results from JPM (E: $2.72), WFC (E: $0.59) and C (E: $1.35).

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on January 14, 2021

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Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said the proposal was “being met by a ‘sell the news’ reaction as markets already priced in most of what was included…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye

Tom Essaye Quoted in NBC Philadelphia on January 11, 2021

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Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, noted that “with all this current and expected stimulus, the risks of a disorderly acceleration in bond yields and inflation…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on January 11, 2021

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Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, noted that “with all this current and expected stimulus, the risks of a disorderly acceleration in bond yields…” Click here to read the full article.

 

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Takeaways

Stock futures are little changed this morning as investors continue to digest the recent sprint to new record highs following a mostly quiet night of news.

Eurozone Industrial Production rose 2.5% vs. (E) 2.3% in November but EU stocks are trading slightly lower due to ongoing, tight economic lockdowns across the continent.

Looking into today’s session there is one economic report to watch this morning: CPI (E: 0.4%), and a “hot” number could trigger a renewed rise in bond yields that would ultimately weigh on stocks.

Meanwhile, there is also a 30-Yr Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if demand is strong, as it was for the 10-Yr auction yesterday, that may help stocks stabilize, especially if the inflation numbers come in above expectations.

Finally, it is another busy for the Fed as several officials are scheduled to speak including: Bullard (9:30 a.m. ET), Brainard (1:00 p.m. ET), Harker (2:00 p.m. ET), and Clarida (3:00 p.m. ET), but as long as they all stick to the mostly dovish narrative of recent, they should not have a significant impact on equity markets today.

Update on the Pillars of the Rally (Negative News)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Last Week Wasn’t As Positive As the Price Action Implies
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Stimulus Expectations (Thursday) and Bank Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  If the Recovery Losing Further Momentum?

Futures are moderately lower following a generally quiet weekend as markets digest last week’s rally.

News over the weekend was dominated by politics, and it appears President Trump will be impeached again by the House.

But, impeachment will again be largely a theatrical exercise, and markets will ignore it and instead focus details on Biden’s stimulus plan (which will be announced Thursday).

There are no economic reports today and just two Fed speakers, Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and Kaplan (6:00 p.m. ET) but neither should move markets.  Instead, yields (do they keep rising?) and any further details about Biden’s stimulus plan (official announcement Thursday) will move markets.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Business Insider India on January 6, 2020

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The potential for a more aggressive regulatory approach from Democrats should have Big Tech investors ready for underperformance, argues Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report.

Essaye said in a note, “in the immediate term, markets are pricing in more stimulus. From an equity standpoint, that means tech underperformance and cyclical/value outperformance…” per CNBC. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Interviewed with BNN on January 7, 2021

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Tom Essaye interiewed with BNN on January 7, 2021., to discuss, the recent rally, U.S. stimulus dispersal will benefit Canadian markets due to an energy-rich makeup and more. Click here to watch the full video.

Tom Essaye Quoted in ETF Trends on January 6, 2021

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“In the immediate term, markets are pricing in more stimulus. From an equity standpoint, that means tech underperformance and cyclical/value outperformance…” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.

The Reason Stocks Rallied Yesterday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Reason Stock Rallied Yesterday (Despite the Democrat’s Win and Chaos in the Capital)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly higher after Congress certified the Presidential election results late Wednesday night.

Following the chaos at the Capital yesterday, Congress certified Joe Biden’s election win and President Trump committed to an orderly transition.  That will help markets continue to look past the political and civil unrest related to the election, because none of it will ultimately change the outcome and Biden will be inaugurated on January 20th.

Economic data was mixed as EU Retail Sales collapsed (-6.1%) while German Manufacturers Orders beat estimates, but neither number is moving markets.

With the Presidential transition now largely settled, focus will turn back towards economic data and the two key reports today are Jobless Claims (E: 855K) and the ISM Services Index (E: 54.5).  Both are equally important, and markets will want to see continued improvement in claims and stability in the services PMI, as that would imply the economic recovery isn’t losing too much momentum in the face of still surging COVID cases.  Outside of economic data, we also have several Fed speakers including: Harker (9:00 a.m. ET), Bullard (12:00 p.m. ET), Evans (1:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (3:00 p.m. ET), but none of them should move markets.