Today the Employment Situation report is the key event…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research before the report hit the wires. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are little changed this morning while overseas markets were mixed overnight with Asian stocks outperforming on upbeat Chinese economic data but EU shares drifted lower with focus turning to this week’s ECB meeting.
Economically, Chinese Exports were encouragingly up 25.6% vs. (E) 19.5% y/y in August which supported risk-on money flows in Asian markets however a soft German ZEW Survey is weighing on EU stocks this morning.
Today’s U.S. trading session is lining up to be fairly quiet as there are no economic reports and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
There is a 3-Year Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, however, and weak demand would likely lead to a hawkish reaction across markets with yields moving higher and stocks potentially trading with a defensive tone.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher as markets ignored disappointing economic data ahead of today’s jobs report.
Global PMIs were disappointing as the Chinese Services PMI dropped to 46.7 vs. (E) 52.3 while the EU (59.0 vs. (E) 59.5) and UK (54.8 vs. (E) 55.0) Composite PMIs both slightly missed estimates
Japanese stocks surged 2% after PM Suga resigned, igniting speculation the government will unleash more stimulus.
Today the Employment Situation report is the key event, and the expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 740K, UE Rate: 5.2%, Wages: 3.9% yoy. Because of the soft ADP report, the “whisper number” is slightly underwhelming vs. expectations (say around 500k), so the market may be a bit more sensitive if the actual jobs report is slightly stronger than expectations (it may cause a mild decline in stocks, but nothing major).
We also get the ISM Services PMI (E: 62.0) and markets will want to see stability in that PMI.
How demand expectations change in the wake of the storm will depend…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, according to MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
The group’s leadership reiterated commitment to stable market conditions and flexibility in…Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher following a very quiet night of news as investors position for tomorrow’s jobs report.
Euro Zone PPI was much hotter than expected, rising 2.3% vs. (E) 1.2%, and that is the second consecutive strong inflation number from the EU.
There were no new infrastructure or COVID headlines overnight, and investors continue to add exposure ahead of an anticipated “Goldilocks” jobs report.
Today’s focus will be on economic data, especially Jobless Claims (E: 350K) and Unit Labor Costs (which is contained in Productivity & Costs). Unit Labor Costs are expected to rise 1.0% but if the number comes in decidedly higher than that, it will add to inflation fears (and could be a mild headwind on stocks today).
The 10-year yield continues to build upside momentum, and Powell’s dovish tone on Friday won’t…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said in a note on Monday. Click here to read the full article.
The fundamentals are cautiously bullish for gold as a dovish taper outlook could…said analysts at Sevens Report Research, in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s ‘dovish Powell’ rally, following…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are trading near record highs this morning after mostly disappointing economic data helped reinforce dovish expectations for global central bank policy overnight.
Economically, a private Manufacturing PMI in China showed factory activity fell into contraction last month while European PMI data underwhelmed versus estimates and German Retail sales fell 5.1% vs. (E) -0.9% in July.
Looking into the U.S. session, focus will be one economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 500K) due out ahead of the bell and then the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 59.0) and Construction Spending (E: 0.3%) reports due shortly after the open.
There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so the biggest driver of markets will likely be the reaction to the economic data and what it means for Fed policy expectations. The biggest risk to the rally into the end of the week is data that is “too hot” and causes a hawkish shift to a currently very accommodative Fed policy outlook.