While Russia/Ukraine will dominate near-term headlines, it’s not what’s going to determine the medium- and longer-term direction of this market…wrote Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Gold is doing exactly what it should be doing right now, but it’s a much more mature asset and it’s got a proven history in these types of conflicts of how it trades…said Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
Bitcoin is much more of a momentum and risk-driven asset than it is the independent store of value that people want it to become, it’s not there yet…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower (about 1%) as there were no major changes in Ukraine overnight and as markets digest Thursday’s rebound.
Russian troops have arrived at Kiev and there are reports of heavy fighting near the city, and many analysts expect Kiev to fall as soon as today or in the coming days.
There was no notable economic data overnight.
Today obviously markets will be focused on Ukraine headlines, but as long as there are no signs of the conflict spreading beyond Ukraine then it shouldn’t be too much of a direct impact on stocks. Outside of geo-politics, the key economic report today is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.5% m/m, 5.2% y/y) and if that is much stronger than expectations, it will weigh on futures as it will make the Fed more hawkish, and if it shows signs of inflation peaking, it could extend yesterday’s rally. We also get Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%), Consumer Sentiment (E: 61.7) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.8%) but those numbers shouldn’t move markets unless they are large misses vs. expectations.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine remains very fluid and tensions remain high, so in the short term it will continue to be an obstacle to actions…Sevens Report said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
Regarding Ukraine, investors will await the announcement of new sanctions from the west against Russia, and depending on how severe they are, it could add to the selling pressure on stocks…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
The Russia/Ukraine situation remains very fluid, and tensions remain high, and in the short term that will remain a headwind on stocks…said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
The Russia/Ukraine situation remains very fluid, and tensions remain high, and in the short term that will remain a headwind on stocks…Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report told CNBC Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are down close to 3% as Russia launched an attack on Ukraine beyond the Donbas region.
Early Thursday morning Russia launched missiles at numerous targets in Ukraine and landed troops throughout the country, dramatically escalating the conflict.
Commodity prices shot higher, including oil, which is up more than 7%
Today focus will obviously be on the Russian attack and how far it goes, along with the severity of the international sanctions against Russia. Anything that implies a further escalation will weigh further on markets and send commodity prices even higher.
Outside of Russia/Ukraine, there are numerous economic reports and Fed speakers: Revised Q4 GDP (E: 7.0%), Jobless Claims (E: 230K). Fed Speak: Barkin (9:00 a.m., 12:00 p.m. ET), Bostic (11:10 a.m. ET), Mester (12:00 p.m. ET), Waller (8:00 p.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are enjoying a bounce this morning, tracking global equity markets higher as investors view the initial rounds of sanctions on Russia as less severe than feared while inflation data out of Europe was mildly encouraging.
Economically, the Eurozone’s Narrow Core HICP reading was -0.9%, down from +0.4% in December suggesting price pressures may finally be peaking in parts of the world.
Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports to watch and just one Fed speaker ahead of the bell: Daly (9:00 a.m. ET).
There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move markets but investor focus is likely to remain on any developments with the Russia/Ukraine situation.
After the close yesterday, it was reported that the scheduled meeting this week between Blinken and Lavrov was called off, which was a negative development but if we see a new meeting agreed to, or any signs of further de-escalation in the conflict today, stocks could enjoy a potentially sizeable relief rally. Conversely, further aggressive actions in Ukraine by Russia and/or more severe sanctions being announced by the West would likely drive more risk-off money flows.