Trump Branded With Embarrassing Nickname Over Tariff Confusion

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Wall Street is beginning to understand the president’s roller-coaster foreign trade decisions with the help of a trendy acronym: TACO—or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The TACO theory was coined earlier this month by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, adding a catchy name to the practice of loading up on stocks when Donald Trump first announces the tariffs and then selling when he ultimately backtracks on enforcing them.

In a Wednesday note obtained by Market Watch, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye insisted that Trump does, in fact, always chicken out. So far, that’s been true for enacting additional tariffs on Mexico and Canada, postponing his “reciprocal” tariff plan on dozens of countries after his “Liberation Day” announcement went south, delaying a tariff on imports from the European Union, and smashing his plan to fine China, temporarily decreasing tariffs on Chinese products to 30 percent from 145 percent. Click here to view the full article in The New Republic on May 28, 2025.

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The ‘Trump always chickens out’ trade is the talk of Wall Street. Here’s one way to play it.

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Tariff threats may still offer near-term opportunity but won’t determine market’s next big move, strategist says.

Let’s hear it for the TACO trade.

Wall Street loves a catchy acronym, and the TACO trade, coined earlier this month by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, has captured the mood as investors and analysts attempt to make sense of the roller-coaster market action that has followed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff threats and subsequent walk-backs.

It stands for “Trump always chickens out.” The idea is that investors have profited by buying the dip that has followed Trump’s tariff threats. Does Trump always chicken out on his tariff threats? So far, the answer is yes, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Wednesday note. Click here to view the full article featured in MarketWatch, published on May 28, 2025.

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The valuation is flawed by earnings per share

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The valuation is flawed by earnings per share: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey Quoted in S&P Global

S&P 500 valuations stumble on tariff uncertainty

While the forward P/E ratio is widely viewed as the best measure of a stock or index’s fair value, the valuation is flawed by earnings per share and assumptions of fair market multiples from Wall Street analysts, portfolio managers and strategists, said Tyler Richey, a co-editor with Sevens Report Research.

“So effectively, both sets of proverbial goal posts are constantly being moved amid earnings estimate revisions and shifting geopolitical and macroeconomic landscapes impacting multiples,” Richey said. “Specifically, when volatility picks up meaningfully, it is very challenging to recalculate multiples based on fluid fundamental changes impacting the markets.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured in S&P Global, published on May 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign debt

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Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign debt: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

What the Moody’s downgrade means for markets

According to the latest Sevens Report, the move is unlikely to drive long-term market direction.

“Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign debt to Aa1 from Aaa. That downgrade boosted long-term Treasury yields, as some investors sold long-term Treasuries,” the analysts wrote.

Stocks opened lower Monday, but Sevens emphasized that the downgrade “revealed nothing new.”

But Sevens called the timing questionable: “Downgrading U.S. debt for larger deficits and rising interest costs is the financial equivalent to saying ‘water is wet.’”

Sevens said, “There’s been no dramatic deterioration lately,” and noted that speculative fears tied to potential legislation “don’t justify the downgrade.”

“The deteriorating fiscal situation hasn’t stopped stocks from rallying over the past few years and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on May 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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There are three core drivers behind the shift in sentiment

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There are three core drivers behind the shift in sentiment: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Here are 3 key reasons why markets are rallying

According to the Sevens Report, there are three core drivers behind the shift in sentiment, even as some analysts remain skeptical about the sustainability of the surge.

“In the past month, the S&P 500 has surged basically 10%, the VIX has dropped from 30 to 18 and sentiment indicators have swung more bullish,” Sevens wrote.

“Tariff levels aren’t enough to derail the economy,” Sevens said. Despite isolated price increases, like a 40% jump in the price of a Barbie at Target, Sevens notes that “if tariffs rates are 10%,” and cost absorption is split among supply chain players, the consumer burden remains limited.

“Once that’s obvious, the Fed will cut rates and further support stocks,” wrote the firm.

“However, I do think they’re aggressive right now and as such, I continue to think that while short-term momentum is bullish, chasing stocks here remains an unattractive risk/reward proposition.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on May 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Alleviate consumer-demand concerns and recession worries

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Alleviate consumer-demand concerns and recession worries: Tyler Richey, editor of Sevens Report Technicals Quoted in MarketWatch

U.S. oil prices settle at highest in 3 weeks as trade-war optimism eases consumer-demand concerns

U.S. benchmark oil prices settled Tuesday at their highest in three weeks, as trade-war optimism helped “alleviate consumer-demand concerns and recession worries,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

A multiyear low in annualized U.S. headline inflation was also a “welcomed surprise that effectively poured gasoline on an already raging risk-on fire across financial markets since the better-than-anticipated outcome of the U.S.-China trade negotiations over the weekend,” he told MarketWatch.

A continued relief rally seems to be likely in the weeks ahead, with the $70- to $72-a-barrel range the “first logical upside price target for WTI,” said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The reality of the trade war won’t be as bad as feared back in early April

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The reality of the trade war won’t be as bad as feared back in early April: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Where is the ’Trump Put’ now? Analyst weighs in

According to Sevens Report analysts, that rebound is largely thanks to easing fears around trade war escalation and renewed optimism from the Trump administration.

“The reality of the trade war won’t be as bad as feared back in early April,” Sevens wrote, citing a larger-than-expected U.S.-China tariff reduction and “lots of Trump ‘happy talk’ on trade” involving potential deals with the U.K., South Korea, Japan, and India.

But Sevens cautioned investors not to mistake this relief rally for a sustainable bull run. “While I’m enjoying this morning’s rally I remain skeptical this news can push the S&P 500 sustainably towards (or above) 6,000,” the note said.

The more important takeaway, according to the firm, is that the so-called “Trump Put” — the idea that Trump will pivot policy to support markets if stocks fall far enough — appears to have moved higher.

“Markets freaked out in early April because, in part, investors feared the Trump Put wouldn’t occur until the S&P 500 was well in the 4,000s,” Sevens explained. “But the past few weeks implied the Trump Put kicks in somewhere in the mid-to-low 5,000s.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on May 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report, Interviewed on Yahoo Finance.

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Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report, Interviewed on Yahoo Finance.

Rate cut hopes are rising but the data says otherwise

On this week’s Trader Talk, host Kenny Polcari is joined by macro analyst Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research to break down what’s happening with the Federal Reserve, Trump’s economic reset, and how investors should think about hard versus soft data. With markets clinging to rate cut hopes, Essaye warns that traders may be misreading the Fed’s signals—and underestimating the disruption Trump’s trade overhaul could cause. Together, they explore why investors must separate emotion from strategy and resist the urge to bet on a narrative rather than the numbers.

Trader Talk Interview 5.8.25

Also, click here to view the full interview featured on Yahoo Finance published on May 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Their comments shouldn’t move markets

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Their comments shouldn’t move markets: Tom Essaye, editor of the Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch

It’s a busy day for Fedspeak — but there’s one official worth listening to

“However, unless Williams is hawkish, their comments shouldn’t move markets,” said Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on May 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%

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Still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%: Tom Essaye, editor of Sevens Report Quoted in USA Today

US stocks end near flat as investors turn cautious, take profits ahead of China deal talks

An 80% tariff is down from a levy as high as 145% currently but still higher than some forecasts for 50% to 60%, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Research Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on USA Today published on May 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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