Tech Leads the Rally, But Breadth Signals Are Flashing | Sevens Report Weighs In

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Tom Essaye says the rally looks healthy—but it’s not without warning signs

Tech stocks are powering this record-setting rally on Wall Street – but how long can it last?

RECORD HIGHS GET SUPPORT FROM NYSE BREADTH, BUT 200-DAY INDICATORS TELL A DIFFERENT STORY

Wall Street’s rally to new highs continues to be led by tech stocks, but according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, the strength may be broader than it looks—though not without its risks.

“The recent advance is broad-based… historically healthy and likely sustainable.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye pointed to new highs in the NYSE Advance/Decline (A/D) line, a key signal that the rally has expanded beyond just megacap names.

But there’s a catch: only about 50% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to Sevens Report data—well below May’s 55% high.

“The divergence… is a source of concern,” Essaye wrote. “Some areas show real strength, while others may just be staging bear-market rallies.”

For bulls, Essaye says confirmation would come from more S&P names clearing their 200-DMAs—surpassing the May threshold of 55% would help validate the rally’s staying power.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Tom Essaye Says PCE Report Could Make or Break Rate Cut Hopes

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Markets need a tame report to keep the soft landing story alive: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

EMEA Morning Briefing: Investors Await Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge

Investors are closely watching the PCE inflation report, set for release today, as it remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric.

According to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, the market is hoping for a quiet reading to preserve the case for two rate cuts later this year.

“Markets are counting on inflation to stay subdued to keep expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 intact.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

While recent CPI and PPI data have come in light, any surprise to the upside in today’s PCE could push Treasury yields higher and pressure equity markets, Essaye warned.

“If inflation surprises to the upside… that will push yields higher and pressure stocks.”

With stocks near all-time highs and rate cut optimism priced in, a hotter-than-expected inflation print could shift sentiment quickly.

Also, click here to view the full Dow Jones article published in Morningstar on June 27th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Investor Sentiment Remains Cautious — And That’s Bullish, Says Sevens Report

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Tom Essaye explains why wariness may be just what keeps the rally going

Investors Are Still Wary of the Stock Rally. Five Things That Could Prove Them Right.

Despite stocks pushing higher, investors haven’t gone all-in—and that’s a good thing, according to Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research.

Citing multiple sentiment measures, Essaye noted that investor optimism is still muted compared to historical averages:

  • AAII Investor Sentiment Survey shows just 33.2% bullish, below its long-term average of 37.5%

  • Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears spread stands at a cautious 10.2%

  • The CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 60%, barely in “Greed” territory and trending lower in recent weeks

“It would be much more concerning if every reading were overwhelmingly bullish.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye says this balance is actually healthy—it prevents bubbles and leaves room for the market to rise further as sentiment gradually improves.

“Investor sentiment is much more balanced and neutral than the price action would imply.”

In his view, the continued skepticism could fuel further upside, so long as macro headwinds like tariffs, geopolitics, and economic growth don’t deteriorate.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 26th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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If inflation surprises to the upside then that will pressure yields and stocks

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Markets are counting on inflation to stay subdued: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

What’s up with inflation? PCE likely to show a small rise in prices despite tariffs.

“Markets are counting on inflation to stay subdued to keep expectations for two rates cuts in 2025 intact,” wrote Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research. “If inflation surprises to the upside — which is unlikely given CPI and PPI were light — then that will push yields higher and pressure stocks.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 26th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term Says Tom Essaye

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Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term: Sevens Report Founder Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

US Stocks Extend Losing Run as Geopolitics Dampens Investor Mood

“There were already a lot of unknowns for investors to contend with and we’ve added another with the Israel/Iran conflict,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter. “Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term and make rallies a bit harder to manufacture, but these unknowns are not, by themselves, enough to cause a correction.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Stocks Rebound as Middle East Risks Stay Contained, Says Sevens Report

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It’s unlikely to materially impact the markets: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Xinhua

U.S. stocks rebound as investors brush off Middle East tensions

GEOPOLITICAL FEARS FADE AS FUNDAMENTALS AND POSITIONING SUPPORT RISK

U.S. stocks bounced back Friday as investors looked past Middle East tensions, driven by historically low equity positioning and resilient fundamentals.

According to Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, markets are focused on geopolitical headlines, but remain stable as long as conflict stays limited.

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

So far, the restraint in global escalation is giving risk appetite a chance to reemerge—but markets remain sensitive to any broadening of the conflict.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on June 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The Markets focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Gulfnews.com

Oil rises, US futures drop on Trump Tehran warning: Markets wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally

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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

4 Ways to Find Winners in a Rising Market

“The gap between what we (and investors and clients) are reading daily in the mainstream and financial media is wide and getting wider,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye, citing the disconnect between “scary headlines” dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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No signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict

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No signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in USA Today

US stocks close higher as oil dips on Iran’s openness to ceasefire, nuclear talks

“There are no signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict and that’s keeping geo-political concerns anchored” and stock markets buoyed, said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report Editor Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise on Reports Iran Wants to Restart Talks: Markets Wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here