Our technical view of oil has now shifted from cautiously bullish to neutral with rising risks to the downside, especially after WTI closed below that aforementioned support at the March and April double bottom lows ($95.18) for a second time in a week yesterday. Wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
By making borrowing more expensive and thereby tempering demand, rate increases are critical in combating inflation, but “growing fears” that the hikes will spur a recession by undercutting economic growth are the “driving forces” behind recent market weakness, says analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher following a solid night of earnings.
AAPL (up 2%) and AMZN (up 12%) both beat estimates and that’s helping to extend this week’s rally.
Eurozone inflation came in slightly hotter than expected, as EU HICP rose 8.9% yoy vs. (E ) 8.8% yoy, but stronger than expected earnings are helping the market look past the slightly hot number.
Today the focus will be on inflation as we get three notable inflation readings: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.5% m/m, 4.7% y/y), Employment Cost Index (E: 1.1%), and the University of Michigan Five Year Inflation Expectations (E: 2.8%). Markets have aggressively priced in a near term peak in inflation, and the data needs to start to confirm that, starting today. If these inflation stats run hot, don’t be surprised to see stocks decline.
On the earnings front, the season is starting to wind down but there are still a few more days of notable results. Some reports we’re watching today include: XOM ($3.80), CVX ($5.02), PG ($1.23) and CL ($0.71).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower on disappointing earnings and the increased probability of higher corporate taxes.
Earnings from META, QCOM, and others disappointed and that’s reversing some of Wednesday’s tech-driven gains.
Senate Democrats agreed on a smaller Build Back Better bill that includes some corporate tax increases, although it’s still not clear when this becomes law.
Today will be a busy day from a data and earnings standpoint. Economically, Jobless Claims (E: 249K) is the key report and if it moves considerably above 250k that will signal further deterioration in the labor market. We also get Preliminary Q2 GDP (E: 0.5%) and as we said yesterday, don’t be shocked if it’s negative and you hear a lot of recession commentary.
On the earnings front, today is an important day and the key reports will be: PFE ($1.72), MA ($2.36), AAPL ($1.14), AMZN ($0.15), INTC ($0.69).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are solidly higher this morning as quarterly earnings results from tech giants MSFT and GOOGL were both well received by investors after the close yesterday while investor focus shifts to the Fed today.
This morning, economic data will be in focus early with Durable Goods Orders (E: -0.5%), International Trade in Goods (-$103.2B), and Pending Home Sales (-1.0%) all due out by 10:00 a.m. ET.
From there, expect price action to slow considerably as focus turns to the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Markets have priced in a 75% chance of a 75 basis point hike today while no changes to forward-guidance are expected so any variance from those expectations could result in sizeable moves in the market this afternoon.
Finally, earnings season remains in full swing with SHOP ($0.03), TMUS ($0.41), HLT ($1.06), SHW ($2.81) reporting ahead of the bell and META ($2.51), F ($0.43), and QCOM ($2.86) releasing results after the close. Any of those reports could lead to sector specific volatility despite the Fed today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are modestly lower on soft retailer earnings from yesterday as focus turns to the July FOMC meeting.
WMT is down 9% in pre-market trading after the retail giant slashed its profit outlook, citing inflation pressures on consumers which is driving risk-off money flows in pre-market trade amid a resurgence in recession fears.
Today, investors will begin to look ahead to tomorrow’s Fed announcement as the FOMC meeting begins this morning however there are also several important economic reports including: Case-Shiller House Price Index (E: 1.6%), Consumer Confidence (E: 96.8), New Home Sales (E: 664K), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -10).
Earnings season also continues to pick up today with UPS ($3.14), KO ($0.67), GM ($1.40), GE ($0.38), and MCD ($2.46) reporting ahead of the bell while MSFT ($2.28), GOOGL ($1.28), and V ($1.74) will release results after the close.
The market looks at that, and basically, the logic is, ‘oh crap, if they’re doing this then what about the ones aren’t as strong?’ And what are they seeing coming that everyone else isn’t…said Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
You’ve seen a relief rally, the Fed maybe being slightly less hawkish than you think is the hope…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Sevens Report Research said gasoline supplied, a measure of implied demand, only bounced by 459K bbl/day to 8.52M bbl/day last week after plunging 1.35M bbl/day in the previous week, which was the largest drop since the initial COVID lockdowns. Click here to read the full article.
Additionally, gasoline supplied, a measure of implied demand, only bounced by 459,000 b/d (barrels a day) to 8.52 million b/d last week after the measure plunged 1.35 million b/d the prior week, which was the largest since the initial COVID lockdowns…wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
