U.S. natural-gas supplies are tight, sitting 23.9% below where they were last year and 17.8% below the five-year average…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Looking at the yield curve, the 10s-2s spread continued to widen out and is now smack in the middle of the 30-40 basis point resistance range, and we think that’s a critical resistance level…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures declined overnight as NFLX dropped sharply on disappointing earnings (specifically declining subscribers) but a pullback in yields has helped the market stabilize in early morning trade.
Economically, German PPI was the latest hot inflation print as the headline spiked 4.9% vs. (E) 2.3% M/M.
Looking into today’s session, there is a slew of potential catalysts for the market beginning with another report on the housing market: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.86M) and then a busy Fed speaker circuit with: Daly (10:30 a.m. ET), Evans (11:30 a.m. ET), and Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET) all scheduled to speak.
There is also a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact equity markets.
Finally, earnings season continues today with: PG ($1.29) ahead of the bell and TSLA ($2.27), UAL (-$4.15), AA ($2.99), and CSX ($0.38) due to report after the close.
The crude supply rise was partially explained by a steep and unexpected drop in the refinery utilization rate and contributed to a drawdown in gasoline and distillate stocks…Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
Banks only do that when they think that default rates, which are currently low, will start to rise…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading lower after another quiet night of news as bond yields hit new multi-year highs overnight while investors look ahead to a fresh set of earnings reports today.
The 10-year Treasury Note yield notably tested 2.90% overnight following hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Bullard, who mentioned the possibility of a 75 basis point hike late yesterday.
Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.75M, 1.83M) but it is not likely to move markets. Then there is one Fed speaker mid-day: Evans (12:05 p.m. ET).
Finally, earnings season continues to pick up today with JNJ ($0.34), LMT ($6.22), TRV ($3.70), and CFG ($0.96) reporting before the open and NFLX ($2.92) and IBM ($1.34) due to report after the closing bell.
Looking ahead, the outlook for gold is still bullish and “the level to beat for futures to begin a new leg in the current uptrend is the 2022 high close of $2,058” an ounce, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Thursday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
The catalyst behind this week’s rally in natural gas has been a “late season blast of cold weather making its way across the country,” boosting demand for heating in many parts of the nation… said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
We do see them [commodities] as stretched in the short term… said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower following a generally quiet weekend of news.
Chinese economic data was better than expected as Q1 GDP rose 4.8% vs. (E) 4.2%, but concerns remain about future economic growth given continued lockdowns (concerns about future Chinese growth is a headwind on global stocks right now).
Geopolitically there was no change in the Russia/Ukraine war as fighting ranges in eastern Ukraine and there is no reason to expect a cease fire anytime soon.
Today the key report is the Housing Market Index (E: 78) and we’ll be looking for any signs that mortgage rates at 10+ year highs are starting to slow the housing market. We also get one Fed speaker, Bullard (4:00 p.m. ET), and we can expect him to be hawkish (but the market already knows that).
Finally, this is a big week for earnings and some important reports today include: BAC ($0.76), SCHW ($0.85), JBHT ($1.91).