Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s
Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on February 6, 2019.
“Futures are slightly lower as Trump’s SOTU was a non-event for markets…” Read the full article here.
Sectors to Buy If This is A ’15/’16 Repeat
Today’s Report is attached as a PDF.
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What Sectors to Buy If This Is a ‘15/’16 Repeat
- Why Are Global Central Banks Turning Dovish? (And Is It A Good Thing?)
- What’s Next for Oil
Futures are moderately weaker as concerns about global growth rise following more weak EU economic data.
German Industrial Production badly missed estimates, falling –0.4% vs. (E) 0.8%, while the European Commission cut 2019 expected EU GDP to 1.3% from 1.9%.
The Reserve Bank of India surprisingly cut rates over night and is now the second large central bank to give markets a dovish surprise (after the RBA on Wednesday).
Today focus will remain on economic data and Fed speak, as we get Jobless Claims (E: 223K), Consumer Credit ($17.5B) and comments by dovish Fed Governor Bullard at 7:30 p.m. ET. If the news is generally dollar bullish and we see a further rise in the dollar, that might weigh on stocks more as a weaker dollar is needed to help boost corporate earnings going forward.
Repeat of 2015/2016?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Is this a Repeat of 2015/2016?
Futures are slightly lower as Trump’s SOTU was a non-event for markets while growth concerns continue in the wake of soft data o/n and earnings were mixed since yesterday’s close.
German Manufacturers’ Orders fell –7.0% y/y in December from –3.4% in November, the lowest reading since 2012, which is weighing modestly on EU shares in morning trade.
Looking ahead to today’s Wall Street session we are likely to see more digestion as there are limited catalysts.
There are two, second-tiered economic reports due out: International Trade (-$53.9B) and Productivity and Costs (E: 1.6%, 1.7%) while on the Fed front, Powell is scheduled to speak after the close (7:00 p.m. ET) but his remarks will be watched closely and could move markets after hours tonight.
Lastly, earnings season is winding down but there are still a few notables to watch today: GM ($1.21) and FDC ($0.37) before the open and CMG ($1.19) after the close.
Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch
Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Quoted in MarketWatch on February 4, 2019.
“There have been a lot of shifting pieces in the oil market to start 2019 as a dovish [Federal Reserve], and subsequently weaker dollar, sanctions on Venezuela, and…” Read the full article here.
Tom Essaye appeared on TD Ameritrade Network
Tom Essaye appeared on TD Ameritrade Network on February 4, 2019.
“The whole tech space, is getting a boost from Friday, positive comments on U.S.- China trade deal from Trump and…”Watch the full interview here.
Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg
Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg on February 3, 2019.
“The S&P 500 was priced for perfection in the economy, earnings and the Fed, and while we’ve seen a lot of positive improvement, we’re a long way…”
Read the full article here.
An Old Wall Street Indicator
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Why an “Old Wall Street Indicator” Isn’t So Optimistic this Year
- Citi’s Bullish Call on Copper
Futures are trading higher with EU shares this morning on the back of strong earnings from BP while the mixed GOOGL results from yesterday are digested along with the Trump-Powell dinner ahead of tonight’s SOTU speech.
Economically, Composite PMI data released overnight was largely in-line with estimates and is not materially moving markets.
Today, there is one economic report to watch: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 57.1) and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.
That will leave earnings in focus with notables: VIAB ($1.02) before the open and SNAP (-$0.08), DIS ($1.57), and ALL ($1.01) after the close.
Beyond earnings, investors are already looking ahead to tonight’s State of the Union Address which is the only significant macro-catalyst this week.
Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC
Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on February 4, 2019.
“Part of the reason that the market reacted so positively to the earnings is because expectations had fallen into this earnings season. From a sentiment perspective, it was definitely better than…” Read the full article here.
What’s Next for Markets
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Why We Still Think Stocks Are in a Trading Range (And We’re Near the Top)
- Two Indicators That Would Make Us More Bullish on Stocks (In the Currency & Bond Section)
- Weekly Market Preview
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet
Futures are flat following a very quiet weekend of no incremental news (the weekend news flow was similar to the scoring in the first half of the super bowl).
The only notable economic report was Chinese Service PMI which met expectations at 53.6 vs. (E) 53.9. But, the composite PMI still dropped to 50.9 vs. the previous 52.2 so there are still legitimate reasons to worry about Chinese, and global, economic growth.
Today there are no notable economic reports and the only notable earnings report comes after the close (GOOGL ($11.08)) so I’d expect a generally quiet trading day as investors digest the recent rally/news.
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in MarketWatch on February 1, 2019.
“Under normal circumstances we would have had a negative reaction to this number, because it would cause the market to expect more rate hikes. But this won’t change the Fed’s calculus. Also, jobs are a really…” Read the full article here.