Stock Market Update: Trumponomics

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Wednesday was volatile as Trump’s press conference induced a mid-day sell off, but stocks recovered after lunch to finish with moderate gains.  The S&P 500 rose 0.28%.

The markets are now experiencing “Trumponomics.”  The Sevens Report, a daily macro-economic report for financial advisors, just released it’s “Stock Market Update:  Investors Guide to Trumponomics.”

Stock Market Update

stock market updateStocks were basically flat throughout the morning yesterday in what was very quiet trading.  Trump really dominated the narrative all day yesterday as the Russian “dossier” story weighed on sentiment slightly pre-open on Wednesday, and that was made worse by the fact that there was no economic data or corporate news to distract from the Trump story.

So, stocks opened basically flat and chopped sideways ahead of the Trump press conference at 11 a.m..

As we said earlier this week, this event had the potential to move markets and, at least temporarily, it did not disappoint.

The press conference was full of figurative fireworks but the fact that there was absolutely no mention of fiscal stimulus or tax cuts hit stocks (as we cautioned it might in our preview on Wednesday). First, Trump’s left field comment about reducing the cost of drug prices sent biotechs into mini free-fall, and that took healthcare lower which weighed on the whole market.  Then, after a brief rebound, stocks rolled over again after Trump failed to imply a timeline for tax cuts of fiscal stimulus.

But, the market is giving Trump and the Republicans the benefit of the doubt and his omissions weren’t damming yesterday (yet).  So, stocks rebounded after lunch and rallied throughout the final two hours of trading to close basically at the higher of the day.  Oil, which accelerate higher during the afternoon, also helped stocks rally, as oil remains an important short term influence over stocks.

Stock Market Update: Trading Color

Trump dominated sector trading as well yesterday as this comments about “bidding” for drug prices hit biotech stocks (NBI dropped nearly 3%) and healthcare more broadly (XLV fell 1%).   XLV the only SPDR we track to finish negative yesterday.

But, it wasn’t just the biotech comments as the quasi disappointing press conference did cause some defensive outperformance as utilities rose 1%. Besides energy (XLE), which was up on the oil rally, utilities were the best performing SPDR in the markets yesterday.

Continuing that cautious theme, cyclical sectors also rose (again every SPDR except healthcare was higher yesterday) but banks, tech and industrials were up just .5%., so clearly there was no real, cyclical outperformance.

So, Trump’s comments (or lack thereof regarding tax cuts of stimulus) took some wind out of the cyclical led “Trump Trade” sails yesterday.

Bottom Line

Yesterday’s price action after the press conference gave us some important insight into how we can expect stocks to trade over the next few weeks:

The fact that there was no mention of tax cuts, infrastructure spending or de-regulation by Trump weighed on stocks temporarily Wednesday, and bigger picture that lack of specifics does threatens to undermine the post Election rally.

But, while stocks are lower this morning mostly because of that disappointment, yesterday’s press conference likely won’t cause a material unwind of the “Trump Trade” because the market is still willing to give Trump/Republicans the benefit of the doubt on a lack of policy specifics.  So, this morning’s dip aside, don’t expect lack of policy clarity alone to cause a pullback near term (it’ll take something additional like Chinese currency volatility, bad economic data, etc.).

But, beyond the short term (and I mean the next 2-4 weeks) the biggest risk to stocks is the gap between market expectations of tax cuts and pro-growth policies, and the potential political reality.  And, yesterday’s press conference did nothing to reduce that risk.

As I said in the Trump Press Conference Preview, if the market does not get some evidence that corporate tax cuts are progressing and forthcoming by the middle of Q1, that will begin to weigh on stocks.

In the mean time, the benefit of the doubt remains with the bulls but the S&P 500 is still at a valuation ceiling at 18X forward earnings, and it’s going to take evidence of looming pro-growth policies to help stocks punch materially through recent highs.

Thoughts on Healthcare

Trump’s surprise comments on bidding for drug prices caught markets by surprise and hit healthcare and biotech stocks yesterday, but at this point that general rhetoric isn’t enough to make me abandon my long position.

That may change once we get some actual policy specifics but for now that comments seemed more like populist rhetoric than anything actually concrete, and I imagine the complicated Obamacare repeal will likely dominate any healthcare related policy in the first half of 2017.  Put another way, they will have enough to worry about ensuring that coverage continues for Obamacare recipients, never mind changing national drug pricing structures to the detriment of biotech firms.

 

 

Chart of the Day: Trump Trips the Dollar

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The dollar index traded down to a one-month low yesterday as the markets grew cautious after Trump failed to divulge details of his administrations’ plans after inauguration, most notably corporate tax reform.

 

Stock Market Update: January 10th, 2017

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Stock Market Update excerpt from the Sevens Report: Stocks gave back most of Friday’s gains on Monday thanks mostly to digestion of last week’s rally ahead of some important catalysts later this week (Trump’s speech Wednesday specifically). A sharp drop in oil also weighed on the averages. The S&P 500 fell 0.35%.

Stocks started Monday mostly flat following a quiet weekend. There were actually macro positives yesterday, primary of which was the Chinese currency reserve data. But economic numbers from Germany were also strong Monday morning.

Then a drop in oil offset those positives, and as a result stocks opened lower and fell basically to the lows of the day within the first 30 minutes of trade, again thanks almost entirely to oil.

From those lows, stocks basically traded sideways for the remainder of the session. There were potential catalysts including Fed speakers and the Consumer Credit number at 3:00 p.m. yesterday, but none of it provided any material surprises, and nothing changed the general outlook for markets. Stocks chopped sideways in the afternoon before closing near the lows of the day.

Stock Market Update: Trading Color

Healthcare and super cap internet stocks were again the positive story yesterday, and five trading days into 2017 they are the clear surprise winners so far.

Healthcare was the lone positive SPDR yesterday, rising 0.42% again mainly on biotech strength. Meanwhile, super cap internet stocks (think FANG—FB/AMZN/NFLX/GOOG) rallied again yesterday and FDN, our preferred super cap internet ETF, rose 0.25%.

Away from healthcare and internet names, selling was broad yesterday as eight of the nine SPDRs we track declined. Energy was an obvious laggard due to the drop in oil, as XLE fell 1.45%. Oddly, utilities also fell sharply (down 1.3%) despite the decline in bond yields.

Financials, industrials and consumer staples all relatively lagged the S&P 500, but didn’t fall by more than 1% while tech was again another relative outperformer, with XLK down fractionally.

Single stock news was virtually non-existent yesterday,  and trading from an activity and volume standpoint was very quiet. General digestion remains the best way to describe yesterday’s price action.

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Stock Market Update: January 6, 2017

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Stock Market Update from The Sevens Report: Stocks declined for the first time in 2017, but the losses were small, as disappointing retailer earnings offset more decent economic data ahead of the first big catalyst of the year… the December jobs report. The S&P 500 declined 0.08%.

Stocks were flat at the start of Thursday trade, as very poor results from KSS and M offset more decent global economic data. US data yesterday was mixed, but generally “fine,” as jobless claims dropped sharply (ADP missed estimates, but not terribly so) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slightly beat estimates. In total, none of the data points altered the narrative around the economy or Fed expectations, and stocks opened flat and chopped sideways with small gains until the oil inventory number.

stock market updateThe weekly oil inventory report was taken initially as bearish, and that caused a pullback in stocks as the drops in oil at 10:30 and 11:00 led the break lower in the major averages, as oil remains a shorter-term influence over the stock market. But both oil and stocks bottomed for the day right around 11:30, and both began rallies that lasted until oil’s close at 2:30. With no other notable news (and an important jobs report this morning) stocks chopped sideways before closing slightly lower.

Stock Market Update: Trading Color

From a sector standpoint it was quiet outside of financials and retailers (more on those in a second). No SPDR we track moved more than 0.50% yesterday, and trading was mixed excluding financials. Three of the SPDRs we track traded higher (led by healthcare (XLV +0.45%) while five SPDRs were lower (led by industrials, XLI -0.30%). There was no notable news that caused the moves in these sectors, and most of it was just general positioning.

The same cannot be said for financials and retailers, as banks dropped 1.7% and financials fell 1.2% on the drop in bond yields, as the 30-year Treasury yield hit a one-month low.

Retail, meanwhile, got hammered courtesy of KSS and M, which plunged 19% and 14%, respectively. That dragged down XRT, the retail ETF (-2.4%). Notably, though, the broad consumer discretionary SPDR, XLY, declined only 0.11%, and that reinforces what I said earlier Wednesday that the KSS and M prints are a retail business model problem (i.e. too much brick and mortar, not enough online) not a consumer spending problem (and that’s a positive for the economy broadly). The traditional retail sector continues to face stiff structural headwinds, and I’m not interested in buying dips.

Finally, looking at tech, semiconductors continued to fall but they held support at 900 in the SOX. A break of that makes me short-term nervous on stocks. Meanwhile, our old friends the FANGs (FB/AMZN/NFLX/GOOGL) all traded well and FDN rose 1.1%. While not as powerful as they were in 2015, owning super-cap internet stocks continues to make sense for longer-term investors, as those companies continue to be on the edge of innovation in tech.

Looking ahead to today, the risk here is for a soft jobs report due to ADP and if the report but unless the S&P 500 breaks support at 2239 the short term trend remains higher.

 

Why Chinese Yuan Volatility Matters to You

One of the more important, but underfollowed, stories in the financial media this week has been the surge higher in the Chinese yuan. That move caused the dollar drop yesterday, and it’s an uncomfortable reminder of yuan-inspired stock volatility in January 2016.

Understanding yuan trading dynamics is about as exciting as reading stereo instructions (and in some cases just as complicated), so I’m not going to bore you with the details.  But, it is important you understand 1) What’s happening with the yuan, 2) Why it’s a risk to stocks and 3) How to hedge against a yuan-inspired decline in stocks.


What Happened: Since the election, the yuan weakened relentlessly vs. the dollar. And as we started 2017, it was in danger of breaking the psychologically important $7.00 level. A break of that level is a problem for two reasons. First, it would provide fodder for China hardliners in the Trump administration to get tough on trade, because the currency would be so weak. Second, it would put stress on China’s ability to control the yuan, as a break of the level would invite more selling of the yuan.

So, to support the yuan, Chinese authorities intervened in the markets starting on Wednesday, and continued on Thursday, and the results were significant—the yuan surged nearly 2% in two days, the biggest two-day move since 2010.

Why It Matters: There have been two periods in the last two years where we’ve seen this level of yuan volatility: Aug/Sept ’15 and Jan ’16.  Both periods saw deep, sharp and scary stock market pullbacks, because the yuan gyrations caused a loss of confidence in the Chinese economy/authorities. Fearing a Chinese “hard landing,” global investors sold first and asked questions later.

Today, the causes of yuan volatility are different, and I don’t think we’re on the precipice of a yuan-inspired pullback in stocks just yet. But, the chances are rising.

The reason why is the yuan declines aren’t over. That’s because the decline in the yuan is a product of 1) Fears of trade disputes with a Trump administration hurting the Chinese economy and 2) A relentlessly rallying dollar, which will force the yuan lower and risk a recession in China.

Everyone knows both these longer-term trends (higher dollar/weaker yuan), which is why Chinese citizens are trying to exchange yuan for dollars or other currencies. And it’s why the Chinese government has imposed capital controls preventing citizens and companies from doing just that!

Near term, Chinese authorities can support the yuan and continue to defend the $7.00 level by selling foreign currencies from their massive forex reserves (when you sell a currency against the yuan, the yuan goes up). But that can’t last forever, and if their forex reserves drop below $3 trillion, markets will start to get nervous about China’s ability to keep the yuan stable. This is particularly important, as over the weekend China will release its currency reserves for December. That number better be above $3 trillion, or Monday could be a down open.

How We Position for It:  Again, I’m not saying this yuan volatility will cause a pullback, but the chances of a one-time, large yuan devaluation are rising, and that could cause global macro volatility in Q1. From a positioning standpoint, the best way to hedge against a China-inspired pullback in stocks is EUM, the inverse emerging market ETF. That ETF protected portfolios in Sept/Aug ’15 and Jan ’16, and I’m confident it will do so again if China/yuan volatility causes a pullback in stocks.

Bottom line: The yuan volatility is not a problem for stocks yet, but I do want everyone to understand the context in case we do see a big, one time devaluation of the yuan in Q1 2017, as that might cause a knee-jerk, “risk off” trade of lower stocks/lower commodities/lower dollar/higher Treasuries.

Going forward, the two key numbers to watch are $7.00 yuan/dollar (a break above that level is bad) and $3 trillion Chinese Foreign Cash Reserves (a break below that number would be bad). If either occur, chances of another China-inspired pullback in stocks will rise.

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Stock Market Update: 01/04/2017

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Stock Market Update excerpt from The Sevens Report.  Stocks surged to start the new year as a resumption of the Q4 “Trump/Reflation” trade, along with strong economic data sent stocks moderately higher to start the year. The S&P 500 rose 0.85%.

Stocks were higher from the outset Tuesday in part because they needed to play catch up to foreign markets, which rose on Monday while the US was closed. But, even without the foreign tailwind, US stocks would have  been higher Tuesday as there was a clear resumption of what outperformed in Q4. Cyclical stocks, the dollar and oil were higher while bonds were lower. That “reflation” trade accelerated following the open after strong December ISM Manufacturing data.

Stock Market UpdateMarkets lost a bit of momentum midday as politics interjected into yesterday’s trade (a theme we should all get used to in 2017). Trump’s tweet about GM (he mentioned border taxes) helped stoke some worries about trade issues for 2017 (although the announcement that Ford was keeping a plant in the US was met positively).  The Stock Market drifted lower on general digestion, and hit the lows for the day up just 7 points in the S&P 500. However, stocks bounced off intraday support at 2245 and rallied during the final 30 minutes to finish with solid gains.

Trading Color

Volumes and activity still muted yesterday, and while certain sectors did mimic Q4 performance (cyclicals did outperform), it wasn’t overall compelling outperformance. The major indices all finished with similar gains (there was no Russell 2000 or Nasdaq outperformance).

From a sector standpoint, there was cyclical outperformance as financials (XLF) and energy (XLE) both rallied more than 1% while utilities dipped 0.25%. However, it wasn’t a true out-of-safety, into-cyclicals rotation, as consumer staples had a decent day, up 0.40%, and REITs rose 1.33%. Finally, healthcare traded well to start the year, with XLV up 1.3%. The sector remains one of my contrarian ideas for 2016 due to negative sentiment and overblown political fears.

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S&P 500 Chart

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Stocks spent virtually all of Thursday near unchanged in quiet holiday-like trade, as markets ignored economic data and geopolitical news (Russian sanctions). The S&P 500 dipped a slight 0.03%.

The S&P 500 pulled back for a second day yesterday but importantly held our initial support level at 2246 mentioned on pg. 5 of the Sevens Report.

As was to be expected, trading was very quiet yesterday as the S&P 500 moved in just a 10-point range peak to trough. There were multiple economic reports out yesterday morning and they were mixed, but markets aren’t worried about economic data this week, and stocks opened slightly higher initially on a bounce back from Wednesday’s weakness. That initial rally lasted only 60 minutes, and shortly after 10:30 a.m. stocks were negative once again.  View the S&P Chart below.

s&p-500-chart

S&P Chart

There was no real catalyst for the selling, and instead it was just a continuation of the profit taking we saw on Wednesday. Stocks continued to drift lower in quiet trade trough lunch time, and the S&P 500 did make fresh two-week intraday lows.

Unlike Wednesday, the selling dissipated below 2245 and stocks traded sideways for the remainder of the afternoon.

News of the Russian sanctions was the only notable headline in the afternoon, but those were more targeted at individuals and won’t have any real economic implications, so the markets largely ignored them.  As mentioned, given the looming administration change, we don’t see poor Russian/US relations as a major macro influence in 2017 as they will likely improve in early Q1 ‘17.  Stocks closed quietly with slight losses.

Trading Color

On Thursday, there was clear profit taking in the “out of safety/into cyclicals” trade that’s outperformed since the election, as cyclical sectors badly underperformed safety and higher-yielding sectors.

Of the nine SPDRs we track only three were down yesterday: Financials/XLF (-0.75%), energy/XLE (-0.37%), and consumer discretionary/XLY (-0.13%). Banks also were down more than 1%.

Conversely, of the six SPDRS that were up, utilities/XLU outperformed, rising 1.4% while consumer staples/XLP rose 0.5%.  Most of the other sectors were little changed.

Given the sector laggards yesterday were the best performers since the election, and the outperformers were the sectors that have fared the worst since the election, it’s not hard to determine we’re seeing some profit taking in that trade.

Given how elevated expectations are for growth in early 2017, continuation of a short-term reversal in the out of safety/into cyclicals trade may well continue in early 2017, although longer term the outlook for bond proxy sectors like utilities and REITs is still challenging. Meanwhile, the outlook for cyclicals/value stocks is more attractive. Point being, the longer-term trend is still towards cyclical outperformance over income-oriented sectors like utilities and REITs.

Finally, continuing the week-long trend, gold and gold stocks surged yesterday with GDX rallying more than 6% mostly on short covering, but also on gold strength. If we see a short-term pullback in the dollar to start 2017, gold and gold stocks will benefit the most and may be of interest for those with a trading bent.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day: Natural Gas Continues to Climb

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Natural gas futures continued to climb yesterday as weather reports are forecasting colder than average temperatures well into 2017 which is raising prospects for more larger than average supply draws.

 

Stock Market Update: 12/28/16

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stock market update

Here is an excerpt Stock Market Update from The Sevens Report.  Stocks rallied in quiet trade to start the final week of the year yesterday, as the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high. The S&P 500 gained 0.22% on the day.

Futures were flat early yesterday, but once the bell rang stocks jumped higher out of the gate thanks to economic data that showed an increase in home prices and a spike in consumer confidence.

But with attendance so low between Christmas and New Year’s holidays, and as Hanukah continues, the rally failed to gain any traction and the benchmark averages began to slip from early highs into the lunch hour.

News flow remained extremely quiet, volumes were down and attendance was thin, which allowed stocks to continue to bleed lower into the afternoon until they closed basically in the middle of the day’s trading range.

Technically speaking, the Nasdaq composite hit new highs; however, Dow 20,000 remained elusive for another day despite a run to within 20 points of the psychologically significant level.

Trading Color

Yesterday was slow from both a macro and micro standpoint, as both index and sector movements could best be characterized as drifts. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq both outperformed the S&P 500, but only slightly, up 0.5% to the S&P 500’s 0.22%.

Internally, the rally was broad as all nine SPDRs we track finished higher, although none came close to rising more than 1%. Basic materials and tech were the two outperformers, up 0.5% and 0.45%, respectively. Materials

were up on the general lift in the commodity complex, while tech rose thanks to preliminary indications of strong holiday sales. AMZN in particular rallied more than 1.5% on reports of strong Amazon branded product sales (Alexa in particular). NFLX also was nearly 2% higher on news of strong holiday subscription sales.

More broadly, there was slight cyclical outperformance yesterday as consumer staples and utilities finished basically unchanged on the day while the aforementioned materials and tech sectors outperformed. But again, the moves were minimal and can be chalked up to random trading noise.

Bottom line, Tuesday was a quiet day in the markets, and with a barren calendar looming for the remainder of the week we can expect more of the same going forward.

Bottom Line: 4 Events To Watch in Q1 2017

In Monday’s issue, I pointed out four policy errors that could adversely affect markets in 2017. With that in mind, I wanted to point out specific events and dates that will give us color on those potential policy errors.

To a point, this is a preliminary catalyst list for Q1 2017, although obviously we will be adding to it as the weeks go by. As we start 2017, though, these are four key dates/events to watch.

1) Trump’s Policies – Will They Meet Very Lofty Expectations (Jan. 20)? Don’t be surprised if we see a “Buy the president-elect, sell the president” market reaction in 2017, as investors could book profits once Trump assumes office. That’s because the single biggest question for markets is whether the actual policies put forward by the new government will meet the very lofty market expectations, and there is serious risk of a disappointment.

We’ll be focused on leading indicators that will tell us whether these policies look likely, because if they don’t, stocks could drop sharply after the inauguration.

2) Fed Meeting (Jan. 31). It’s not a coincidence the hawkish December Fed meeting basically arrested the post-election rally. By the time the January Fed meeting occurs, we’ll have a lot more information on inflation and growth, and it’s entirely possible that the Fed signals another rate hike is coming. If that happens, the 10-year Treasury yield could surge to 3%, and that will hit stocks, regardless of what Trump is doing.

3) Semi-Annual Currency Report (March/April). What if Trump starts a trade war with China? I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but the market is so enamored with potential pro-growth policies that it’s largely ignoring the fact that Trump wants to take a hardline stance on trade. Last week, Trump appointed Peter Navarro, author of the book Death by China, to head a new trade council.

If the Treasury Department labels China a currency manipulator in this Currency Report, automatic tariffs are imposed and a trade conflict could easily ensue.

4) Fed Meeting, (March 15). At this point, we’ll know a lot more about the policies coming out of Washington, and if we’re going to see a lot more fiscal stimulus, then Yellen herself has said the Fed will react with higher rates to prevent inflation.

This March Fed meeting is the first of 2017 with an updated “dot plot,” so if the Fed wants to communicate more hikes in 2017, this is the first opportunity to do so. That will send the dollar and bond yields sharply higher, which will be a headwind on stocks.

 

 

Chart of the Day: NASDAQ Powers to New Highs

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While the 20,000 mark remained elusive in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied to fresh all-time highs yesterday.

 

Chart of the Day: Nat Gas Surges Ahead of EIA Report

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Natural gas surged nearly 10% yesterday thanks to speculation that colder temperatures across the country will boost heating demand and in turn, draw down elevated inventories.