Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Set Rate-Cut Expectations

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye: Fed chair’s comments may shape September policy outlook

Target is probably still missing the mark: Opening Bid top takeaway

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations or he could simply not discuss policy much at all. From a market standpoint, any hint of promise of a rate cut will be welcomed, and push back on rate-cut expectations will likely cause a market decline,” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Aol.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention
  • Housing Starts Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower but off session lows as the recent tech-led stock market pullback is being digested as the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium comes into focus.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% on the headline and 2.3% on the core figure which is easing recently elevated concerns about a broad-based resurgence in global inflation pressures, subsequently helping equities bounce off the lows.

There are no economic reports today, however the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and investors will be scouring the details for any new insights on Fed policy plans for H2’25.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (3:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investor growth/inflation expectations (and therefore could most stocks).

Finally, retailers continue to dominate earnings news this week with multiple notable major corporations reporting quarterly results today including: TGT ($2.09), EL ($0.08), TJX ($1.01), LOW ($4.23), BIDU ($1.32), and COTY ($0.01). Evidence of ongoing consumer resilience would be a positive for risk assets and likely help stocks stabilize from the early week pullback today.

 

Tom Essaye: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Could Sway Markets

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Investors eye rate-cut signals ahead of Fed meeting and retail earnings

Market-Moving Events Await Including Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting and Retail Earnings

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said Monday that Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole could have significant market impact.

“Powell could pave the road for a 25 basis point cut in September, he could push back on those expectations, or he could simply not discuss policy much at all,” Essaye noted.

He added that markets would welcome any hint of a cut, while firm resistance from Powell would likely weigh on stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article on news.ssbcrack.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Market’s Perspective on Peace Efforts in Ukraine
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are slightly lower amid a “sell-the-news” reaction to the lack of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine after President Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky.

There were no notable economic reports overnight leaving investors focused on geopolitics and retailer earnings.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.290M), and following yesterday’s soft Housing Market Index release, a soft number could weigh further on currently fragile, albeit still resilient, investor sentiment towards the economy.

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on conviction for a September Fed rate cut (the stronger the demand for the Bills, the better) while one Fed official is scheduled to speak in the afternoon: Bowman (2:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are some important retailer/consumer earnings this week with notables reporting today to include: HD ($4.71), MDT ($1.23), TOL ($3.59), SQM ($0.52). It will be important for earnings to continue to show consumer spending trends remain resilient, otherwise economic worries could weigh on markets this week.

 

Tom Essaye in Barron’s: Hot PPI Report Threatens Stock Rally Momentum

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Surging producer prices raise stagflation concerns for equity markets

Stocks’ Rally Could Stall After Hot PPI Report

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Friday that July’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index poses a serious threat to the stock-market rally.

The headline PPI jumped by the most since March 2022, rising more than four times the consensus estimate. Essaye warned that the upside surprise introduces risks that had not been on investors’ radar.

Rising producer prices, he explained, could pressure corporate earnings while increasing the likelihood the Fed faces a “mandate dilemma” if inflation rises just as labor-market data weakens. That would be the “textbook definition of stagflation.”

“If stagflation emerges in the second half of 2025, equities are well over their skis,” Essaye noted, pointing to the S&P 500’s 22-times multiple on what may be overly optimistic 2026 earnings forecasts.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Tom Essaye: Hot PPI Data Undermines Stock-Market Rally Pillars

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Surging producer prices raise doubts on inflation, Fed cuts, and profits

Thursday’s hot PPI challenges three pillars of stock-market rally

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI report has chipped away at three key supports of the 2025 stock-market rally.

The first is confidence that inflation is on track to the Fed’s 2% target. The second is the assumption that a September rate cut is locked in. Essaye warned that if PPI flows into CPI, the Fed could face a “mandate dilemma” between curbing inflation and supporting growth.

The third is optimism for continued corporate profit growth in 2026. Rising producer costs, Essaye cautioned, could compress margins and leave investors disappointed.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

SPX: Hot PPI Threatens Key Pillars of Stock Market Rally Says Sevens Report

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Sevens Report president Tom Essaye warns inflation surprise clouds rate-cut hopes

SPX: PPI Shook the Pillars of the Stock Market Rally

Stocks rebounded from modest losses after Thursday’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) release, but the data rattled investors. Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report, cautioned that the July PPI “shook the pillars” of the S&P 500’s rally, which has leaned heavily on renewed rate-cut expectations.

“The headline surge was more than four times consensus and the strongest since March 2022,” Essaye said, noting that traders “sold first and asked questions later” as hopes for a September cut dimmed. Rising inflation pressures, he explained, are a direct threat to the macro drivers currently propping up equities.

Technically, Essaye sees the S&P 500 trend as “cautiously bullish” after the index hit new record highs. He flagged key resistance at 6,395, 6,427, and 6,500, while noting important support at 6,340, 6,238, and 6,104.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on August 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Fading AI Enthusiasm Could Threaten Market Rally Despite Strong Economy

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Sevens Report warns that slowing momentum in AI stocks may weigh on equities even if growth remains resilient

10 AI Stocks Making Headlines This Week

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye cautioned that a cooling wave of enthusiasm for AI stocks could spell trouble for the broader market. The note highlighted steep drops in C3.ai and CoreWeave following soft guidance and disappointing results.

“Those moves put a question in my head… What happens to this market if AI loses momentum?” Essaye wrote. While investors remain focused on tariffs, economic data, and Fed policy, the report warned that equities could falter even in a stable macro environment if AI names fail to deliver.

Five stocks — Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom, and Palantir — have powered 56% of the S&P 500’s 10.8% year-to-date gain, according to Sevens. Essaye stressed that execution will be critical as the AI trade matures. “If AI enthusiasm begins to fade, this market will face a headwind regardless of whether the economy is stable,” the report said.

Also, click here to view the full article on Insidermonkey.com published on August 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bitcoin Slides After Inflation Data; Essaye Sees Long-Term Bullish Shift

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Sevens Report founder notes policy support and strategic reserve chatter

Bitcoin sinks following hotter-than-expected inflation print, Bessent comments on strategic reserve

Bitcoin dropped following hotter-than-expected inflation, with strategists highlighting both macro headwinds and the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance. “The administration is pushing crypto. They are pushing Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the lead dog in the crypto market,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Yahoo Finance interview.

While Essaye acknowledged near-term froth, he stressed that structural changes—such as policy support and discussions of a strategic reserve—could underpin longer-term strength in the asset class.

Also, click here to view the full article on Yahoo Finance published on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Events That Could Actually Cause a Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Events That Could Actually Cause A Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About the Fed (Does Powell Signal A September Cut on Friday?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Updates This Week (Do They Push Back on Stagflation Worries?)

Futures are slightly lower as the Trump/Putin summit produced no substantial changes in the war amidst an otherwise quiet weekend (market focus is on Powell’s speech Friday and whether he hints at a Sept rate cut, or not)

The Trump/Putin summit resulted in neither a ceasefire nor the threat of oil sanctions and as such, the market is largely ignoring the event.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Focus today will be on geo-politics with President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders at the White House to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.  From a market standpoint, its focus remains on oil prices.  If the cease fire efforts fail and Trump again threatens oil sanctions on China and other countries buying Russian crude, that will push oil prices higher and put a headwind on stocks.

Outside of geopolitics, there is one economic report today, NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 34) and an important earnings report after the close (Palo Alto Networks, PANW ($0.50).  Given last week’s underwhelming tech reports, markets will want to see a solid result.