Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term Says Tom Essaye

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Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term: Sevens Report Founder Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

US Stocks Extend Losing Run as Geopolitics Dampens Investor Mood

“There were already a lot of unknowns for investors to contend with and we’ve added another with the Israel/Iran conflict,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report newsletter. “Those unknowns will act as a weight on equities near term and make rallies a bit harder to manufacture, but these unknowns are not, by themselves, enough to cause a correction.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Unknowns Are Weighing on the Markets

Futures are modestly lower as markets still wait for a decision on direct U.S. involvement in the Israel/Iran conflict.

The White House said the President will make a decision on U.S. involvement within two weeks, leaving a potential diplomatic window open.

Economically, UK retail sales were weaker than expected, falling –2.7% vs. (E ) 1.3% while German PPI met expectations (1.2% y/y).

Today focus will be on economic data and the two notable reports are Philly Fed (E: -1.0) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  As has been the case, the stronger these readings, the better for stocks (it pushes back against the slowdown narrative).

Stocks Rebound as Middle East Risks Stay Contained, Says Sevens Report

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It’s unlikely to materially impact the markets: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Xinhua

U.S. stocks rebound as investors brush off Middle East tensions

GEOPOLITICAL FEARS FADE AS FUNDAMENTALS AND POSITIONING SUPPORT RISK

U.S. stocks bounced back Friday as investors looked past Middle East tensions, driven by historically low equity positioning and resilient fundamentals.

According to Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, markets are focused on geopolitical headlines, but remain stable as long as conflict stays limited.

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

So far, the restraint in global escalation is giving risk appetite a chance to reemerge—but markets remain sensitive to any broadening of the conflict.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on June 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Markets focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Gulfnews.com

Oil rises, US futures drop on Trump Tehran warning: Markets wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally

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The disconnect between scary headlines dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

4 Ways to Find Winners in a Rising Market

“The gap between what we (and investors and clients) are reading daily in the mainstream and financial media is wide and getting wider,” notes Sevens Report President Tom Essaye, citing the disconnect between “scary headlines” dominating the news cycle and markets’ ongoing rally.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Technical Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Technical Preview
  • Retail Sales Data Takeaways – Signs of Weakness in Consumer Spending

Futures are higher as investors continue to monitor the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and digest largely as expected European inflation data ahead of the Fed.

Economically, Eurozone HICP fell to 1.9% from 2.2%, as expected, while UK CPI edged down to 3.4% vs. (E) 3.5% which is supporting a bid in the global bond market with yields falling moderately in premarket trade.

Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 244K) which come a day early, and Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.360M, 1.430M). Another sharp rise in jobless claims could bolster concerns about the health of the labor market but a big reaction from markets is unlikely given the looming Fed decision.

Speaking of which, the primary focus of today’s session will be the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) as investors look for clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

There are two late season earnings releases to watch as well: ACB ($0.11) and KFY  ($1.25) but with the Fed in focus, neither should materially move markets today.

No signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict

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No signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye, Quoted in USA Today

US stocks close higher as oil dips on Iran’s openness to ceasefire, nuclear talks

“There are no signs it’s spiraling into a broader regional conflict and that’s keeping geo-political concerns anchored” and stock markets buoyed, said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Meeting Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are lower amid an elevated sense of market uncertainty after President Trump left the G-7 summit early as tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated.

Economically, Economic Sentiment within the latest German ZEW Survey rose from 25.2 to 47.5 vs. (E) 31.3, however European stocks are trading with a heavy tone amid the elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Today, there are several noteworthy economic reports to watch including: Retail Sales (E: -0.6%), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.3%, -0.1%),  Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), Business Inventories (E: 0.0%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 36).

Beyond the economic data, the June FOMC meeting gets underway today which should prompt a sense of “Fed paralysis” as investors await clarity on the future path of monetary policy.

Finally, there are two late-season earnings releases to watch: JBL ($2.15) and LZB ($0.93) but neither should move the broad markets as focus shifts to the Fed decision.

Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines

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Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines: Sevens Report Editor Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise on Reports Iran Wants to Restart Talks: Markets Wrap

“Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on June 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

 

Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines

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Why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines: Sevens Report President, Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Why markets are ignoring scary headlines about Iran, trade wars and U.S. debt

Strategist Tom Essaye explained why markets appear relatively immune to the negative headlines in the Sevens Report, his daily market-strategy note.

However, Iran’s military capabilities have been so degraded, Essaye wrote, that Tehran’s ability to respond to Israel’s missile strikes and to counter its overall military superiority is severely inhibited.

According to Essaye, tariff fatigue has caused complacency to set in. There are too many headlines and deadlines for the average investor to follow accurately, and markets now routinely dismiss Trump’s ultimatums as bluff and bluster, as evidenced by the recent coinage “TACO,” or “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

The next significant deadline is July 9, the end of the 90-day pause in the imposition of Trump’s tariffs, and at that time markets may well reassess their current phlegmatic approach. Right now, however, Essaye believes that “markets are so [convinced about] TACO that it’s going to take a sustained tariff increase to shake the belief.”

After recently piercing the 5% level, though, 30-year Treasury bonds have rallied, implying that investors are not yet sufficiently worried about the U.S. fiscal situation to sell off Treasury bonds aggressively, Essaye wrote.

“If the 10-year yield begins to creep towards and through 5.00%, that will be a signal that the global bond markets are starting to worry about the U.S. fiscal situation and at that point, markets will care about deficits and debt, a lot! (and we should expect stocks to be sharply lower),” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article, published on June 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.