“On a valuation basis this market has risen to reflect a macro environment that is materially more positive than the one we currently have, and as a fundamentals-driven analyst, that makes me nervous over…” says Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are modestly lower this morning after another mostly quiet night of news as investors look ahead to the remaining catalysts this week including US jobs data.
The only economic report overnight was Australian GDP which missed expectations (0.2% vs. E: 0.3%) and hit the Aussie dollar (-0.76%).
Oil prices are down over 1% this morning after the API reported a weekly build of +7.3M bbls late yesterday vs. (E) +1.6M bbls. A build of this size would largely offset last week’s bullish draw and could pressure the energy space (and drag risk assets lower too) if confirmed by this morning’s EIA report (10:30 a.m. ET).
Today, we get our first look at February jobs data with the ADP Employment Report (E: 180K) due out ahead of the bell. Then, International Trade figures will be released shortly thereafter (E: -$57.6B). Either release could move markets as growth concerns and the trade war remain two of the biggest influences on stocks right now.
Other than the weekly EIA report mid-morning, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak over the lunch hour: Mester (12:00 p.m. ET) and Williams (E: 12:10 p.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are up modestly while international markets were mixed in quiet trade overnight as investors eyed the benign start of China’s NPC where 2019 forecasts largely met expectations while economic data was mixed.
China’s General Services PMI fell from 53.6 to 51.1 in February while Composite PMI data in Europe was better than expected which is helping EU shares outperform this morning.
Today, there are two Fed officials speaking early: Rosengren (7:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (9:30 a.m. ET), before a few notable economic reports are due to be released shortly after the bell: New Home Sales (E: 590K) and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 57.2). Beyond those potential catalysts, focus will remain on U.S. – China trade.
Tom interviewed with The Ticker’s Jackie DeAngelis on Yahoo Finance to discuss the 7 ‘ifs’ that would have to happen for markets to…Click here to watch the entire clip or click on the video below.
Tom Essaye was quoted in Axios to share his take on U.S./China trade deal, the big picture and more. Read the full article here.
“Markets expect a deal by the end of March, but the key here will be whether the deal results in the removal of all tariffs,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher thanks to reports that the U.S. and China are extremely close to a new trade deal.
The WSJ reported the U.S. and China are aiming to sign a new trade deal on March 27th that will include the removal of all tariffs, although the article cautioned it’s not a done deal at this point.
Economically, data was weak again as British Construction PMI (50.6 vs. (E) 52.5) and EuroZone PPI (3.0% vs. (E) 3.2%) missed estimates.
There are no economic reports today so focus will remain on U.S./China trade and any official confirmation (from the U.S. or Chinese government) of the positive articles that hit overnight.
Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, said, “To be sure, there are arguments that industrials could keep up their current pace of growth, at least in the short term. Investor optimism toward a U.S.-China trade deal, as well as the belief that global growth will…” Read the full article here.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher thanks to strength in Asia and generally in-line economic data.
Chinese shares are up 1% because index firm MSCI announced it will increase the weighing for mainland Chinese stocks to 20% from the current 5%.
Economically, global Feb manufacturing PMIs largely met estimates as the EU number rose to 49.3 vs. (E) 49.2. while the British reading was in-line at 52.0.
Today focus will be on data as we get two important economic reports. First, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 1.9% y/y) is released, and that year over year number needs to stay around 2% to continue the “dovish Fed” narrative. Later, we get the Feb. ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 55.0) and it needs to meet expectations to help offset some of the poor data from February (retail sales, etc.).