Buy the Dip or Fade the Bounce?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Buy the Dip or Fade the Bounce?

US stock futures are down roughly 10 points this morning as yesterday’s big rally and notable post-market gains thanks to strong NFLX earnings are digested and investors look ahead to the Fed Minutes today.

Economically, EU HICP (their CPI equivalent) was in-line with expectations at 2.1% yoy but the core figure was soft, slipping to 0.9% from 1.0% which is mildly dovish for ECB policy outlook.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report due out: Housing Starts (E: 1.221M) which will leave investors primarily focused on the FOMC Minutes due out at 2:00 p.m. ET. Earnings season takes a breather today as there are no major releases.

On that note, the huge beat by NFLX after the close yesterday should help tech shares continue to trade well this morning which could see this rebound extend higher into the Fed release this afternoon.

What’s Wrong With Bank Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Wrong With Bank Stocks?
  • Monday’s Economic Data Analysis
  • Natural Gas Fundamental Update

Futures are bouncing modestly this morning after international markets were mixed overnight as the recent volatility continues to be digested and focus turns to earnings.

Economically, Chinese inflation data met expectations overnight however the German ZEW Survey pretty badly missed expectations showing a sharp drop in confidence among financial professionals.

There is no shortage of potential catalysts today between economic data, earnings and politics/trade.

Economic releases to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.2%), Housing Market Index (E: 67), and August JOLTS data (E: 6.905M) are all due out within 30 mins of the open.

Notable companies releasing earnings today include: GS ($5.42) and MS ($1.00) ahead of the open and later NFLX ($0.68) and IBM ($3.40) after the market close.

Lastly, traders and investors are showing more interest than normal in the US Treasury’s foreign exchange report as it may shed light on Chinese currency policies and if any manipulation violations were discovered which would again elevate tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

Tom Essaye on The Wall Street Journal – His Take on U.S. Stocks Rebounding, October 12, 2018

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U.S. Stocks Rebound After Two-Day Rout

“If next week’s data comes in firm and shows us that this economy isn’t losing momentum, then that will likely provide a big confidence boost to stocks, and could help support a rebound,” said Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.

Read the full article here.

Updated Market Outlook Post Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting the Pullback In Context (We’ve Seen Something Similar Twice This Year)
  • Weekly Market Preview (All About Earnings and Data)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Market Needs a Confidence Boost)

Futures are moderately lower following a generally quiet weekend, as markets digest Friday’s bounce.

Nothing outright negative occurred over the weekend to cause the resumption of selling. But, there was no improvement in any macro headwinds either and as such markets are digesting Friday’s gains.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will turn towards economic data and we get two important reports: Retail Sales (E: 0.6%) and Oct. Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 19.3).  Strong readings will give the market a needed boost of confidence as they’ll remind investors the economic remains strong.

On the earnings front, activity picks up starting tomorrow but there are two notable reports today:  BAC (E: $0.62), SCHW (E: $0.64).

Tyler Richey on Barrons, October 12, 2018

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Winter Is Coming and Natural Gas Supplies Are Already Short

Supplies in storage “have fallen out of the five-year maximum-minimum range as stockpiles did not build as fast as most analysts had expected this summer,” says Tyler Richey, co-editor of commodity research provider of Sevens Report. “The last time inventories tested the lower end of that five-year range was at the beginning of the year, when futures spiked to a more than one-year high.”

Read the full article from Barrons here

Tyler Richey’s take on Natural Gas Supplies on MarketWatch, October 12, 2018

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Natural-gas supplies may come up short this winter

Tyler Richey, co-editor of commodity research provider for Sevens Report on MarketWatch. His take on this topic, “Supplies in storage “have fallen out of the five-year maximum-minimum range as stockpiles did not build as fast as most analysts had expected this summer.”

Read the full article here.

Is This the Fed’s Fault?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Selloff Update (Some Positive News Yesterday)
  • If This The Fed’s Fault?
  • Two Economic Canaries in the Coal Mine

Futures are rebounding as global markets bounce following solid economic data and confirmation of the Trump/Xi meeting at the G-20.

Economic data was solid overnight as Chinese exports beat estimates, rising 14.5% vs. (E) 8.2%, while Eurozone Industrial Production rose 1% vs. (E) 0.5%.  Both numbers are helping to improve sentiment.

Today we get bank earnings and JPM already released results and beat estimates, while we wait for WFC (E: $1.17) at 8:00 a.m.    Economically we get Consumer Sentiment (E: 99.5) and there are two Fed speakers, Evans (9:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET) but none of that should move markets.

Instead, we can expect markets to continued to digest the recent pullback.  The tech sector showed some hints of stabilization yesterday but it’ll need to rally if we’re going to get a material bounce in stocks today.  Bigger picture, strong earnings from industrial and multi-nationals (which won’t be possible till next week at the earliest) remains the “fix” to this market pullback.

Tom Essaye on Bloomberg Radio – October 10, 2018

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Get Used to More Volatility

Tom Essaye, Founder of The Sevens Report, joined Bryan Curtis and David Ingles on Daybreak Asia, reacting to today’s U.S. equity sell off. To listen to the entire clip go here

 

Sell Off: Why It Happened and What’s Next

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sell Off Takeaways: Why We Don’t View It as a Bearish Gamechanger (Yet).
  • Technical Update:  Key Support Levels to Watch
  • Why Didn’t Bond Rally Yesterday? (Important)

Futures are sharply lower as global markets dropped following the Wednesday rout in U.S. stocks.

Nothing new occurred overnight to cause the additional selling this morning and this is all momentum driven.

There was no notable economic data or geo-political news out overnight and the sell-off itself was the focus of most of the financial media.

Today the key event is the Core CPI report (E : 0.2% m/m, 2.3% y/y) out this morning.  This release is even more important than before because if it prints “hot” (core CPI above .4% m/m) that will add to the concern that the Fed is going to get more hawkish and that will add another source of pressure on stocks, which we obviously don’t need right now.  Conversely, if this number is inline of a little light, that could provide a catalyst for markets to try and stabilize.

Another Breaker Tripped

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sevens Report Economic Breaker Panel – October Update: A Macro Breaker Flipped

US stock futures are slightly lower this morning as EU shares are declining on renewed concerns about Italy’s budget despite mostly good economic data overnight.

The Italian Parliamentary Budget Office raised doubts about the government’s growth forecast of 1.5% in 2019 which would ultimately mean a larger budget deficit than previously expected, and that has triggered risk-off money flows this morning.

Economically speaking however, Industrial Production data across Europe was generally better than expected and revisions were mostly positive. While that is currently being overshadowed by the Italian budget drama, it is a positive for the medium term outlook for EU markets.

Today, we get our first of two notable inflation figures this week: PPI (E: 0.2%) as well as Wholesale Trade (E: 0.8%) and there are two Fed speakers to watch: Evans over the lunch hour (12:15 p.m. ET) and Bostic after the close (6:00 p.m. ET).

Otherwise, focus will remain on bond yields and tech shares. For stocks to continue to stabilize or turn higher this week, we will need to see the former hold steady or even pullback slightly and the latter once again outperform.