Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on May 13, 2019
Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on May 13, 2019. “Volatility surged to multi-month highs last week as US-China trade war drama unexpectedly escalated…” Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye quoted in CNBC on May 13, 2019. “Volatility surged to multi-month highs last week as US-China trade war drama unexpectedly escalated…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly weaker following disappointing Chinese economic data. Nothing new happened over night with U.S./China trade.
Chinese Retail Sales (7.2% vs. (E) 8.6%), Fixed Asset Investment (6.1% vs. (E) 6.4%) and Industrial Production (5.4% vs. (E) 6.3%) all missed estimates, implying the Chinese economic recovery might not be as solid as thought.
Today focus will shift back to economic data. The Chinese data was underwhelming and that will put more pressure on today’s U.S. data to reassure markets about growth.
The key reports today (in order of importance) are: Retail Sales (E: 0.2%), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (E: 9.0), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%), Housing Market Index (E: 64). Again, “bad” numbers from these reports that makes the Fed more dovish may cause a temporary bounce in stocks, but that’s not good for stocks in the medium/longer term.
Finally, there are two Fed Speakers, Quarles (9:30 a.m. ET) and Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) but neither should move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are bouncing with EU shares this morning as the outlook on trade improved modestly overnight.
China’s retaliatory tariff deadline of June 1st and Trump’s indecision on the next round of tariffs were received as incremental positives, helping risk assets rise this morning.
The German ZEW Survey, EU Industrial Production, and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index did not offer any surprises and are largely being shrugged off by investors so far this morning.
Trade is obviously going to continue to dominate the headlines amid the recent resurgence of volatility but there is one economic report to watch today: Import & Export Prices (E: 0.7%, 0.6%) and one Fed speaker: George (12:45 p.m. ET).
Tom Essaye interviewed with Yahoo Finance. A very timely chat on tariffs, fear within the market, what to expect with this market volatility and more…Watch the full interview here.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are down more than 1% as markets digest the U.S./China trade situation.
Nothing specifically bad happened over the weekend on U.S./China trade, but Friday’s talks ended without a clear next step and that’s weighing on markets.
Additionally, Friday’s afternoon rally came despite any concrete, positive catalyst, so we are seeing those gains reversed and then some.
There are no economic reports today and just two Fed speakers, Rosengren (9:05 a.m. ET) and Clarida (9;10 a.m. ET), and neither should reveal anything new.
So, focus will be on the trade headlines and tea leaves. Anything that points to a specific next step (a date or event) in the U.S./China trade negotiation should help stocks rebound, while a continued lack of a concrete next step will increase market anxiety the longer it goes on.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are marginally weaker as the U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports, as expected.
Positively, the trade talks will continue today, and the consensus market outlook remains that a deal does get done, likely in the next few weeks.
Away from trade, economic data was solid. Japanese Household Spending, British GDP and UK Industrial Production all beat estimates.
Today most of us will spend the day watching for any trade related headlines, and there are likely to be plenty. But, barring a total breakdown in negotiations, trade shouldn’t be too big of a negative on markets today.
Away from trade, we also get the most important economic data point of the week: CPI (E: 0.4%). PPI was more firm than it seemed, and if CPI is also firm then that will reduce the possibility of a preventative Fed rate cut, which will be another headwind on stocks. Finally, there are multiple Fed speakers today: Brainard (8:30 a.m. ET), Bostic (9:05 a.m. ET), Williams (10:00 a.m. ET) but none should move markets.
Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on May 9, 2019. “Small caps are most sensitive to overall economic growth. I think small caps are declining because…” Click here to read the full CNBC article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are decidedly weaker this morning following more hawkish trade rhetoric from President Trump overnight.
At a rally in Florida Trump said China “broke” the deal and reiterated his tariff threats. Importantly though, nothing changed as far as actual negotiations and the Chinese trade delegation still arrives today.
Economically Chinese CPI generally met expectations at 2.5% yoy vs. (E) 2.6%.
Today the market will be held hostage again by trade headlines, but beyond the trade headlines there are two notable economic reports.
First, Jobless Claims (E: 215K) have risen lately and we’ll want to see that roll back over soon, otherwise it could be a negative signal on the jobs market. Second, PPI (E: 0.3%), while not as important as tomorrow’s CPI, could still move markets given inflation’s new-found importance. Finally, there are three Fed speakers, Powell (8:30 a.m. ET), Bostic (10:45 a.m. ET) and Evans (1:15 p.m. ET), but none of them (including Powell) are expected to move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are decidedly in the red again this morning tracking Chinese shares lower as trade tensions continue to dominate global markets.
There were however, no notable trade developments overnight.
Economically, Chinese Imports rose 4.0% vs. (E) -0.4% while German Industrial Production rose 0.5% vs. (E) -0.5%, both of which were incremental, macro positives.
Today, there are no economic reports due to be released but the Fed’s Brainard speaks at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the EIA will release weekly inventory data at 10:30 a.m. ET which could move energy markets and, in turn, influence stocks.
Additionally, there is a 10 Yr. T-Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and if high demand pressures yields to new lows for the week, expect that to become another headwind on stocks.
Tom Essaye joined Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman and Heidi Chung to discuss how Trump’s tariff threat could influence global markets. Click here or the video below to watch the full interview.
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