Trump/Xi Meeting Takeaways (Good, But Not That Good)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Trump/XI Meeting Takeaways & Updated Market Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Lots of important data this week despite the holiday)

Futures are surging after Trump and Xi did what was widely expected at the G20 and reached a trade “truce.”  On balance, the meeting was a mild positive, but not to the extent futures are implying this morning (more on that inside the Report).

Economic data, meanwhile, was universally disappointing overnight.    Every manufacturing PMI missed expectations this morning including those from China, Germany, the EU and Great Britain.  All of those PMIs are now below 50, signaling widespread contraction in manufacturing activity.

OPEC, meanwhile, extended current production caps for six to nine months at their meeting this week, longer than was expected, and oil is rallying 2% as a result.

Today will be spent digesting the G20 “truce” and seeing if markets can hold these early gains once more details emerge.  On the economic front, the key number today is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.2) and it needs to be “Goldilocks” to support this rally.

Trump/XI Meeting Day (Finally)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Caused The Late Week Rally (Don’t Forget It’s Quarter End Too)
  • A Positive Sign in Housing
  • Trump and Xi meet at 10:30 p.m. ET tonight so look for I’ll be looking for headlines starting around 11:30 p.m.

Futures are modestly positive again this morning on more U.S.—China trade optimism.

President Trump said he thought talks with President Xi would be “productive” and that’s boosting futures.

Economic data largely met expectation although Japanese IP (2.3% vs. (E) 0.3%) and EU HICP (their CPI) slightly beat estimates (1.1% vs. 1.0% yoy).

Focus will clearly be on the looming Trump/Xi meeting but there’s an important economic data point to watch today:  Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 1.5% y/y).  If that shows inflation that’s stronger than estimates, it’ll reduce the chances of a rate cut (bad for stocks), while a soft number will result in a “bad is good” reaction in markets.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on June 27, 2019

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“For now what the bond market is doing is signaling the chances of a recession are more likely than the chances of a renewal of the expansion,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Traders on stock exchange floor

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on June 27, 2019

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“We’ve consistently repeated that the rally in stocks to essentially new highs has been driven by hopes of Fed rate cuts and a U.S.-China trade truce…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Trump

G-20 Preview (What It Will Mean for Stocks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • G-20 Preview (What’s Expected, Bullish If, Bearish If, and Market Reactions)
  • Oil Update – A Bullish Inventory Number (And a Major Gasoline Supply Disruption)

Futures are marginally higher again and this morning is largely a repeat of Wednesday morning as a news article that is positive on U.S.—China trade in tone, yet offers no new information, is causing a mild rally.

The South China Morning Post (a government media source) posted an article stating the U.S. and China will reach a temporary trade “truce” at the G-20.

Economic data was sparse and is not moving markets.

Today we do get some notable economic reports, including Final Q1 GDP (E: 3.1%), Jobless Claims (E: 218K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.6%).

The GDP report will get the most attention but the claims data is the most important release today, but that said none of these reports should move markets.  Instead, we will continue to be glued to the scrolling ticker for any reports or updates on what’s expected at the G-20, as that event continues to hover like a cloud over all markets this week.

Tyler Richey Quoted in Yahoo Finance on June 25, 2019

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“Oil squeezed higher last week on tensions in the Middle East, but with so much uncertainty regarding the trade war and global economy, the demand…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Man at Oil Rig

Digging Deeper into the Yield Curve

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Digging Deeper into the Yield Curve

S&P futures are rebounding solidly this morning after Secretary Mnuchin reiterated that a U.S.-China trade deal is 90% complete while oil prices surge ahead of weekly data.

WTI crude oil futures are up nearly 2% after the API reported a weekly supply draw of over 7M bbls late on Tuesday which nearly tripled expectations (-2.6M bbls).

Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate headline fell to 9.8 vs. (E) 10.0 in July, underscoring investor concerns about the EU economy.

After Mnuchin’s comments this morning, market focus has returned to the trade war and investors will be looking for any additional commentary out of Washington regarding the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi or any other details on trade.

There are no Fed speakers today but there are two economic reports to watch that could potentially move markets, especially given the less dovish Fed speak yesterday: Durable Goods Orders (E: -0.1%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$71.5B).

Sevens Report – Dow Theory Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Dow Theory Update: The Transports Continue to Lag
  • Gold Update

Futures are down slightly as the recent run to new highs in the S&P 500 is digested after a quiet start to the week.

Trade optimism faded modestly overnight amid several less encouraging news articles while there were no notable economic data releases overseas.

Today is lining up to be a busy day as there are a lot of potential market catalysts to watch ahead of the G20 this weekend.

On the economic data front, there are several housing numbers due out: Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.2%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%) and New Home Sales (E: 680K) as well as Consumer Confidence (E: 132.0).

There are also multiple Fed speakers: Williams (8:45 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Powell (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bullard (6:30 p.m. ET). Powell will clearly be the most important to watch, however it remains very unlikely that his tone changes much (or at all) from last week’s FOMC press conference.

There is also a 2 Year T-Note Auction (1:00 p.m. ET) and if demand is soft (so yields rise) that could pressure stocks as it would show the market is dialing back expectations for a very dovish Fed in the back half of 2019.

Lastly there are a few companies reporting earnings today, but the FDX report after the close will be the key to watch as the release could offer insight (positive or negative) into the latest influence that U.S.-China trade tensions have had on global trade.

 

It’s G-20 Week (Trump/XI Meeting Friday)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Weekly Market Preview:  G-20 Looms But There Are Important Events Before That This Week
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  All About Inflation (It Needs to Stay Low)

Futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet weekend as markets look ahead to the Trump/Xi meeting at the G-20 later this week.

News from the weekend focused on geo-political tensions between the U.S. and Iran but for now that situation isn’t impacting markets outside of oil (which is higher again).

The only notable economic report was German Ifo Business Expectations and it slightly missed estimates (94.2 vs. (E) 94.6).

There are no economic reports today nor are there any Fed speakers, so markets will be driven by any headlines on U.S./China trade (leaks about the upcoming Trump/Xi meeting) or Iran/U.S. tensions (the U.S. is anticipated to announce major new sanctions against Iran).

Mind the Fed Funds Gap

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Mind the Fed Funds Gap

S&P futures are slightly lower as this week’s dovish rally to new all-time highs is digested amid further escalations between the U.S. and Iran while economic data was mixed.

The U.S. reportedly called off a retaliatory strike against Iran “at the last minute” overnight which is weighing on investor sentiment but supporting oil prices (Brent +1.60%).

Flash PMIs were mixed o/n with Asian data slightly underwhelming while European data slightly beat expectations. But none of the releases were too far from estimates so the data is not materially affecting markets this morning as investors remain focused on this week’s dovish shift in central bank policies and look ahead to the G20.

Today, there are two economic releases to watch: Flash Composite PMI (E: 50.9) and Existing Home Sales (E: 5.28M). It will be important for the former to remain soft to keep the “Fed Put” alive, but not so bad that the data stokes fears that the Fed is “too far behind the curve.”

Speaking of the Fed, Brainard and Mester speak on a panel together at 12:00 p.m. ET and Daly is scheduled to speak at 12:30 p.m. ET. Given the market’s significant dovish shift in policy expectations this week, investors will be watching closely for any further clues as to when the Fed plans to cut (July?) or by how much (25 or 50 bp?).