“The dominant trend remains bearish as U.S. oil supply is up more than 10% this year, and…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye was quoted in CNBC on June 11, 2019. “You had a market that became very pessimistic and then all of a sudden we had the Fed’s dovish rhetoric and no Mexican tariffs, and that’s basically causing a squeeze…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P futures are down roughly 10 points as the recent melt-up rally continues to be digested ahead of key inflation data in the U.S. while trade headlines were negative overnight.
Trade sentiment deteriorated over the last 12 hours as expectations of a G20 deal are fading while protests in Hong Kong over an extradition bill pressured the Hang Seng to fall nearly 2%.
Economically, Chinese CPI and PPI met estimates overnight while Japanese Machine Orders rose 5.2% vs. (E) 0.5% helping the Nikkei outperform with a loss of just 0.35%.
Today’s focus will be on inflation data due out ahead of the bell: CPI (E: 0.1%). There are no other notable reports due to be released and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.
The digestive tone will likely continue as the blistering rally of the last week was overdone however the “pain trade” remains higher and if the CPI print is soft, we could see another run back to and potentially through 2900 in the S&P today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
It is a risk-on morning with U.S. stock futures tracking international equity markets higher after China announced a new wave of stimulus measures overnight.
The PBOC explained that the program would support infrastructure investment through special bond issuance which helped mainland China shares rally 2.6% on the session.
Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 105.0 vs. (E) 102.0. in May despite the elevated trade tensions, which helped S&P futures extend pre-market gains during the last hour.
Today, the calendar is relatively quiet although there is one inflation figure due out ahead of the open: PPI (E: 0.1%) and even though it is a lesser followed report, a “hot” print could still cause an uptick in volatility after the melt up we have seen over the last week.
There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today which will leave investors looking for any further updates on the trade war, but even though the market is near-term overbought, no news is good news as sentiment is very positive and momentum alone could help stocks continue higher today.
Tom Essaye interviewed with WPTV Channel 5 to talk about how millennials are not prepared for their retirement. Watch the full interview here.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher on the avoidance of Mexican tariffs, although trade news was more mixed than good this weekend.
On trade, positively the 5% tariff on Mexican exports to the U.S. was avoided. Negatively, and more importantly, there was no progress on U.S.-China trade at the G-20 Finance Ministers meeting and no U.S.-China trade talks are planned before the G-20 meeting later this month.
Economic data was also mixed as Chinese exports slightly beat estimates but imports badly missed, while British GDP and Industrial Production also underwhelmed. So, like the trade news from the weekend, there was a positive event, but on the whole the results were more mixed than good.
Today there are no material economic reports so focus will remain on the news wires and any trade related headlines. Anything that implies renewed talks between the U.S. and China will likely extend this rally and test resistance at 2900 in the S&P 500.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moving higher on dovish optimism following soft economic data overseas ahead of today’s jobs report but trade war developments were actually negative overnight.
German data disappointed overnight as Industrial Production fell -1.9% vs. (E) -0.5% while the trade surplus narrowed to 17.0B euros, a 9-month low.
The data is fueling hopes of a dovish policy shift from the ECB, however, after Draghi cited soft manufacturing trends as a concern earlier in the week which is helping EU shares outperform this morning.
Trade news was a net negative overnight as Mexican tariffs are still expected to be implemented on Monday (hopes of a delay pushed stocks higher yesterday afternoon) while there were no material developments on the China front.
Today, investors will be primarily focused on the Employment Situation Report due out at 8:30 a.m. ET (E: +180K job adds, 3.7% UR, 3.2% wage growth YoY).
Due to the huge dovish shift in Fed policy expectations over the last week, bad news will be good news for stocks as the odds of a summer rate cut will rise and the biggest risk for stocks is a “hot” print this morning, especially on wages.
“The unpredictability of the administration regarding tariffs/trade combined with a late cycle economy and a Fed seemingly on hold makes a 16x multiple…” says Tom Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
Markets are urging the Fed to cut interest rates. Will it listen? “That is a very clear message that the bond market believes interest rates are too high,” Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, told FOX Business. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P futures are extending this week’s “squeezy” rally in early trade as dovish optimism continues to dominate the tape ahead of this morning’s ECB announcement while economic data was better than feared overnight.
German Manufacturers’ Orders rose 0.3% vs. (E) -0.1% in April while Eurozone GDP was in –line at 0.4% in Q1. Importantly, neither report was inflationary which is allowing the global rally, driven by a notable dovish shift in sentiment, alive today.
Looking into today’s session, Europe will be in focus early as the ECB Announcement is due out at 7:45 a.m. ET and Draghi’s press conference is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. As long as there are no hawkish surprises out of the ECB, money flows are likely to remain “risk-on” as the U.S. session gets underway.
Domestic focus today will be on the few data points: International Trade (E: -$50.8B), Jobless Claims (E: 215K), and Productivity and Costs (E: 3.4%, -0.8%) as well as Fed speakers: Kaplan (8:40 a.m. ET) and Williams (1:00 p.m. ET).
Again, as long as there are no hawkish surprises today, the path of least resistance is still higher for stocks, although the market has gone from deeply oversold, to near term overbought in a hurry so some consolidation or a modest pullback should not come as a surprise ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report.