What Market Bulls Are Assuming

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Market Bulls Are Assuming
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Are Jobless Claims About to Rise Again?)

Futures are sharply higher thanks mostly to momentum from a big rally in Chinese stocks.

The Shanghai Composite surged nearly 6% on Monday, despite the lack of a discernable, positive catalyst.  Growing confidence in the economic recovery combined with a flood of retail investment fueled the stock gains.

In the U.S., coronavirus cases continued to rise over the weekend, although there was no material acceleration from the pace of the past several days.

Today the key economic report is the June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.0), and if that can break above 50 that will be further confirmation that the economic recovery is happening faster than most thought possible (and it should be a tailwind on stocks).  Additionally, the White House has teased an announcement today of positive developments in treatment of the coronavirus, although the exact timing of this announcement, and what exactly it entails, is unclear.

Tom Essaye Quoted in International Business Times on June 30, 2020

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“A combination of stimulus, positive trends in the virus, economic reopenings and hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in [the second quarter],” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “As we begin [the third quarter], only one of those tailwinds is currently in place: Stimulus. That doesn’t mean we’ll see a correction…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Unseen Opportunity on June 30, 2020

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According to Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, stocks could be missing a few “key ingredients” necessary for an even more extended rally. “A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2…” Essaye wrote. Click here to read the full article.

Jerome Powell

Tom Essaye Quoted in MSN Money on June 30, 2020

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“A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2…” wrote Tom Essaye, the founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

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Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on June 30, 2020

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Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Research Founder, joins Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre to discuss the latest market action. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on June 30, 2020

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“A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “As we begin Q3, only one of those tailwinds is currently in place: Stimulus. That doesn’t mean we’ll see a correction, but be suspect of market rallies until we can add more forces supporting stocks, because…” Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Yahoo Finance on June 30, 2020

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Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joined Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre to discuss how the markets are faring amid volatile news about the coronavirus. Click here to watch the full video.

Tom Essaye Interview

Sevens Report Co-editor Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on June 30, 2020

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“The second quarter will not soon be forgotten by energy traders given that WTI crude oil futures plunged into negative territory for the first time in history, and decidedly so, in the month of April…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. That was “due to logistics issues in the physical supply chain, most notably a critical lack of available storage for freshly lifted crude barrels in the U.S.” On April 20, WTI oil futures fell 306% to settle at negative $37.63. Click here to read the full article.

Has There Been A Positive Change?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Has There Been A Positive Change in Markets?
  • Jobs Day

Futures are solidly higher thanks mostly to continued momentum following Wednesday’s rally.

Economic data was sparse overnight, as the only notable report was the Eurozone Unemployment Rate, which slightly beat estimates (7.4% vs. (E) 7.7%).

Coronavirus cases continued to rise in the U.S. and hit a new daily record above 50k.

Today the focus will be on the Employment Situation Report, and the expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 3.000M, UE Rate: 12.4%, Wages: -0.8%).  As long as the number isn’t a major disappointment (say below 2.5MM) it likely won’t interrupt this week’s lift in markets.

We also get Jobless Claims (E: 1.400M) this morning, and while it’ll be overshadowed by the monthly jobs report, claims are actually more important, and if they can continue to decline towards 1MM (and beat expectations) that will be an additional tailwind on stocks.  Conversely, if claims start to move higher, that could offset even a better than expected monthly jobs report.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • A Historic Quarter for the Energy Markets

Stock futures are trading modestly lower this morning after the S&P 500 registered its best quarterly gain in over 20 years in Q2 while economic data was mostly better than expected overnight.

Economically, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI firmed to 51.2 in June from 50.7 in May while the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.4 from 39.4 in May pointing to a continued rebound in economic activity last month.

Today, we will get our first look at June jobs data with the ADP Employment Report (E: 3.500M) due out ahead of the bell while the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.0) and Construction Spending (E: 0.8%) will both be released shortly after the open.

Later in the day, the only real catalyst to watch for is the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes at  2:30 p.m. ET as traders will be looking for any additional insight into the Fed’s future stimulus plans or view of the state of the economy.