For investors, the wage number will be the key point in this report, said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded the “Sevens Report” newsletter. Assuming annual pay gains hold around 3.1% and hiring is strong, stocks should rally: “The market will love it because…” he said. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher following a quiet weekend and ahead of two important events this week: Phase one signing ceremony (Wed) and the start of earnings season. Futures are essentially recouping Friday’s losses.
U.S./China trade optimism is helping stocks rally as the U.S. and China will resume semi-annual meetings, something that was done in the Bush/Obama administrations. This doesn’t impact trade directly, but just like in 2019, any generically positive U.S./China headline will result in at least a mild rally.
Economic data was soft as British GDP (-0.3% vs. (E) 0.0%) and manufacturing (-1.7% vs. (E) -0.3%) both missed estimates, although the soft data is only weighing on the Pound.
Today there are no notable economic reports and just two Fed speakers, Rosengren (10:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:40 a.m. ET), and they won’t move markets. So, investors will be looking for any hints as to what will be released at the U.S./China phase one signing ceremony on Wednesday, and the more specifics, the better.
“The geopolitical fear bid supporting the gains in the energy markets in the front half of the week vanished much quicker than most analysts anticipated…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“The geopolitical fear bid supporting the gains in the energy markets in the front half of the week vanished much quicker than most analysts anticipated…” says Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
For investors, the wage number will be the key point in this report, said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded the “Sevens Report” newsletter. Assuming annual pay gains hold around 3.1% and hiring is strong, stocks should rally: “The market will love it because…” he said. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly higher again following another quiet night as momentum continues to push the market to fresh highs, ahead of the jobs report.
There was no new geopolitical news overnight and international focus has now turned to whether the Ukrainian flight was hit by an Iranian missile. That shift in focus is helping tensions to recede further.
Economic data was sparse as Japanese Household Spending missed estimates while Aussie Retail Sales beat expectations, but neither number is moving markets.
Today the key number is the Jobs Report, and expectations are as follows: Jobs 158K, UE Rate 3.5%, Wages 0.3%/3.1%. The key number is the wage data, but unless we see wages spike close to, or above 3.5% y/y, then the jobs report shouldn’t derail the rally.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher as U.S./Iran tensions continue to recede.
There was no new geopolitical news overnight, and the rockets that hit the “Green Zone” in Iraq into the closing bell on Wednesday were a small, isolated event. As such, futures are essentially recouping that late-day dip.
Economic data was again mixed as German IP was better than expected, while German exports missed estimates.
Today there is one notable economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 219K), and markets will want to see a continued decline that effectively reverses the Thanksgiving spike.
There are also numerous Fed speakers today including, in order of importance, Clarida (8:00 a.m. ET), Williams (11:30 a.m. ET), Kashkari (9:30 a.m. ET), Barkin (12:45 p.m. ET), Evans (1:20 p.m. ET). Broadly, markets expect a continued reiteration of the message that the Fed isn’t raising rates until inflation is sustainably higher.
Tom Essaye interviewed with WPTV Channel 5 to discuss getting rid of your credit card debt in 2020. Click here to watch the full video.
The U.S. military action that killed Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani last week “served as a reminder that the Trump administration is both unconventional and unpredictable, and that helped reintroduce the geopolitical fear bid that carried the oil market to multi-month highs this week,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research told MarketWatch on Tuesday. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Global stocks plunged overnight on reports of an Iranian missile strike against U.S. military bases in Iraq. Risk assets have since recovered however as there were no U.S. casualties reported and Iran said the attacks “concluded” Tehran’s retaliation for the assassination of General Soleimani.
In Europe, German Manufacturers’ Orders were –1.3% vs. (E) 0.2% but the easing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are supporting modest gains in EU markets.
Looking into today’s session, geopolitics will likely dominate trading but as long as tensions continue to ease between the U.S. and Iran, stocks will likely be able to trade with an upside bias.
As far as other catalysts go, there is one economic report to watch: ADP Employment Report (E: 157K), one Fed official scheduled to speak: Brainard (10:00 a.m. ET) and a 10-Yr T-Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.