Technical Update (Important Levels to Watch)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Technical Update – Important Support and Resistance Levels To Watch
  • Have Stocks Fallen Too Far Too Fast?

Futures are enjoying a modest oversold bounce following a quiet night of news.

There was no new trade news or notable economic data overnight.

Sentiment has turned negative very quickly this week, despite the lack of any incremental bad news (so far) and this morning we’re seeing stocks attempt to bounce.

There are multiple economic reports today including (in order of importance):  Revised Q1 GDP (E: 3.0%), Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Pending Home Sales Index (E: 0.5%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$71.9B).

But, the most important event of the day will be a speech by Fed Vice Chair Clarida at 12:00 p.m. ET, and the key here will be whether he sounds more open to a preventative rate cut, or whether he reaffirms the Fed’s “transitory” view of low inflation.  The former will be positive for stocks, the later will be negative.

The Bond Market and the Fed

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Another Message from the Bond Market for the Fed
  • European Political Issues (Again)

Stock futures are trading solidly lower this morning as global bond yields continue to drop sharply amid ongoing trade war worries and increasing global growth concerns.

There were no major trade war developments o/n but China reiterated their threat of cutting rare earth exports to the U.S. which further dampened investor sentiment.

The only notable economic report overnight was the German Unemployment Rate which edged up to 5.0% vs. (E) 4.9%.

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports due to be released and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There is a 7-Yr. T-Note Auction at 1 p.m. ET however, and if demand is as strong as yesterday’s Treasury auctions, stocks could remain under pressure and the S&P would likely break key psychological support at 2,800.

Tom Essaye Quoted in ETF Trends on May 28, 2019

The Federal Reserve has been on cruise control thus far in 2019 with respect to interest rate policy, opting to keep the federal funds rate untouched. However, the bond markets are screaming for a rate cut, according to Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Lady with a Loud Speaker

Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on May 24, 2019

“There was a violent repricing of risk on Thursday after the rather disappointing global Flash PMIs discounted the argument that solid growth will continue to…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Oil Rig

Why Downside Risks Are Building in Stocks

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Downside Risks Are Building in Stocks
  • Weekly Market Preview
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Friday is an important day)

Futures are modestly lower following a generally quiet three day weekend, as investors digest last week’s deterioration in economic data and U.S.-China trade relations.

Economic data was sparse overnight and the only notable report was German GfK Consumer Climate, which slightly missed expectations (10.1 vs. (E ) 10.4).  There was no material economic data out Monday.

On trade, Trump’s trip to Japan was a general non-event and there were no new developments (positive or negative) on U.S.-China trade.

Today we have a few housing numbers including Cash-Shiller HPI (E: 2.5% y/y) and FHFA HPI (E: 0.3% m/m) as well as Consumer Confidence (E: 129.8), but none of those should move markets materially.

Instead, focus will be on the news wires for any updates on U.S. – China trade and on support in the S&P 500 at 2800, which is becoming an increasingly important level.

The Bond Market Is Screaming For a Rate Cut

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why The Bond Market Is Screaming For a Rate Cut

Futures are bouncing modestly following some hopeful comments by President Trump on U.S.-China trade.

Late yesterday President Trump made comments expressing optimism about an eventual U.S.-China trade deal that includes a solution for Huawei.  No specifics or new details were provided, however.

Brexit entered a new phase as PM May announced she will resign on June 7th.  But, until a “No Deal” becomes more likely, the global markets will continue ignore Brexit.

Today focus will be on Durable Goods Orders (E: -2.0%) and support at 2800 in the S&P 500.  Yesterday that support level held and that’s a key number to watch going forward, as a violation of 2800 could open up an “air pocket” in stocks.

Regarding Durable Goods, it’d be nice if the data was solid, but it’s an April number so it won’t reflect activity following the flare up of U.S.-China trade tensions, and the headline is likely to be negatively skewed by cancellations for the 737, which started last month.

Tom Essaye Appeared on TD Ameritrade on May 23, 2019

Tom Essaye interviewed with Ben Lichtenstein with TD Ameritrade on what is driving the market right now and who is it affecting the most: Banks, crude, energy…& more importantly what will it take to turn the market around? Click here to watch the full video.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on May 21, 2019

Tom Essaye quoted in Barron’s on May 21, 2019. “Today’s news was a positive development, but by no means a game-changer for the broader Huawei situation…” Click here to read the full article.

Cannon ball

A U.S.-China Tech War Too?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Trade War is Becoming a Tech War (And That’s Bad)
  • Brexit Update – Is a “No Deal” Brexit A Possibility (Yes)
  • EIA and Oil Update – Bearish Supply News

It’s an ugly morning as futures are down about one percent as markets digest disappointment from the week’s two big events, the FOMC Minutes and the global flash PMIs.

EU flash PMIs missed estimates at 51.6 vs. (E) 51.7 but EU and German manufacturing PMIs were especially weak (47.7 & 44.3) and that’s negative for global growth.

Yesterday’s FOMC Minutes were slightly hawkish and confirmed the Fed isn’t close to a rate cut right now.

Given the soft foreign data, the key report today is the flash Composite PMI (E: 52.4).  If that number is soft, it’ll further stoke worries about global growth and will be a negative for stocks.  Other reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and New Home Sales (E: 680K).

Bottom line, this market is facing several headwinds and support at 2800 is now important, but should likely hold unless hopes for a Trump/Xi meeting at the G-20 meeting are dashed, or U.S. growth begins to roll over.

Economic Breaker Panel Update

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel: May Update

U.S. stock futures are flat as investors look ahead to today’s release of the FOMC Minutes while most overseas markets bounced o/n in sympathy with the U.S. rally yesterday, although trade tensions remain elevated.

A NYT article released late yesterday revealed a modest escalation in the “tech war” as the U.S. will likely add several Chinese surveillance companies to the same “blacklist” that Huawei is on. This is an incremental negative as the odds of the broader “trade war” being resolved in the near-term continue to fall amid escalations in the U.S.-China “tech war.”

There are no major economic reports today but the calendar is relatively busy with the EIA Petroleum Status Report  due out at 10:30 a.m. ET (oil has traded with a sluggish tone this week and a selloff could drag stocks lower), while the main focus of the session will be on the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed speakers on the calendar: Williams (10:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (10:10 a.m. ET), and Kaplan (10:15 a.m. ET), however it is unlikely any of them move markets ahead of the Minutes.