There was a “follow through short-squeeze” in gold prices early Tuesday following Monday’s sharp gain, but that morning squeeze gave way to retracement “as gold became…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
International markets were mixed o/n and U.S. stock futures are little changed in choppy trade as investors continue to look for clarity on infection and death statistics related to COVID-19 while digesting a volatile start to the week.
Economically, Japanese Machine Orders rose 2.3% in Feb. vs. (E) -2.7, underscoring the resilience of the manufacturing sector as the coronavirus outbreak began to accelerate.
There are no economic reports due to be released today but the Treasury will hold a 30-Yr Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and then the Minutes of the most recent FOMC Meeting will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.
With investors still primarily focused on any developments regarding the coronavirus pandemic, it is unlikely that those two catalysts will move markets today however if there are any surprises, we could see a reaction as volatility remains elevated amid an uncertain macro backdrop.
Gold futures finished lower on Tuesday, easing back after briefly climbing above $1,700 an ounce for the first time since late 2012. There was a “follow through short-squeeze” in gold prices early Tuesday following…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly higher this morning, tracking overnight gains in most international equity markets amid optimism that global efforts to contain COVID-19 are working.
Coronavirus “hot spots” such as Italy and New York City are reporting early statistics that show “lock down” measures are working to contain the outbreak as the number of new cases is slowing while death rates are stabilizing.
German Industrial Production was the only notable economic report overnight and it was better than feared in February (0.3% vs. E: -0.8%), helping support the risk-on money flows today.
Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports due to be released today: JOLTS (E: 6.638M) in the morning and Consumer Credit (E: $14.2B) in the afternoon, however investor focus will remain almost exclusively on coronavirus headlines as hope that the outbreak is being contained is the primary reason for this week’s stock rally.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply higher on new hopes the coronavirus growth rate may be peaking in some of the world’s hardest hit countries.
New York, and the U.S. more broadly, saw signs of progress as coronavirus deaths in NY were down for the first time, as was total new coronavirus cases in the U.S.
Globally there was also progress, as Italy, Spain and Germany potentially have also seen their peak in the virus growth rate.
Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain on coronavirus headlines, and if we get another day of fewer deaths and fewer new cases, confidence will start to build that the worst is behind us. Fingers crossed.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower as markets digest Thursday’s rally ahead of today’s jobs report.
Economically, global service PMIs were worse than expected and the drops were historic. The EU service PMI plunged to 26.4 vs. (E) 28.4, down from 52.6 in Feb.
The Chinese service PMI rebounded strongly in March, rising to 43.0 from 26.5, confirming that their economy is seeing a strong bounce back in activity. This is mildly encouraging because the Chinese data implies that once the coronavirus pandemic has passed (against sooner than later) we should see a strong bounce back in the economy.
Today focus will be on the jobs report, and the estimate are as follows: Jobs: -150K, UE: 3.9%, Wages: 0.2%. But, the “worst case” estimate we saw was for -1.25 million jobs, so don’t be shocked if the number is much worse than the estimate. Also, we get the March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (E: 43.0). If that can beat that low estimate, that will be a small moral victory.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are seeing a moderate rally/bounce as the Fed acted, again, and oil bounced on comments from Trump.
The Fed said it will exclude Treasury holdings and deposits from certain leverage ratios (that essentially allows banks to lend more money which should help the economy).
On oil, Trump said he expected a Russia/Saudi oil deal within “days” but gave no specifics as to how that might happen (although it would be a positive if it does).
Today the key report is Jobless Claims (E: 3.350M), although we also get Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 14.3M) and International Trade (E: -$39.5B).
But, in reality, the real driver of markets right now is coronavirus headlines. They were more positive in tone last week, but have turned more negative this week and that’s why stocks dropped so hard yesterday. Any good news on 1) A pharma solution (vaccine/antibody treatment/trials) or 2) Slowing of the spread will help make this early bounce more sustainable.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are sharply lower with most global equities this morning after President Trump warned of “painful” weeks ahead in the fight against the coronavirus outbreak, stating that deaths could approach 250K in the U.S. alone.
Economically, manufacturing PMI data was mixed o/n with the Chinese numbers surprising to the upside while the EU data largely missed estimates which is contributing to the risk-off money flows this morning.
Today, the ADP Employment Report (E: -180K) kicks off jobs week before we will get two more economic releases after the open: ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 44.5) and Construction Spending (E: 0.6%). Additionally, Boston Fed President, Eric Rosengren, is scheduled to speak at 2:00 p.m. ET.
All of those catalysts have the potential to move markets as we begin a new quarter today however the coronavirus outbreak remains, by far, the single most important influence on stocks right now and investors will be watching any press briefings from the White House or developments regarding treatments or data on the growth rate of new cases themselves which, according to our Sevens Report U.S. Coronavirus Daily Growth Rate Tracker, is favorably continuing to slow towards a one-month low this week.
“With the global economy slowing to a standstill and consumer demand for refined products…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye interviewed with Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade. Click here to read the full article.
