Has Healthcare Finally Broken Out?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Has Healthcare Finally Broken Out?

U.S. stock futures are trading higher and most overseas markets rallied overnight thanks to another wave of optimism for a “phase one” trade deal as traders look ahead to a busy morning of domestic economic releases.

This time it was President Trump who said the U.S. and China were in the “final throes of a very important deal” late yesterday, stoking more risk-on money flows overnight.

Today, attendance will noticeably thin out ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday and volumes are expected to be light.

But, there are several important economic reports due out today: Durable Goods Orders (E: -0.7%), GDP (1.9%), Jobless Claims (E: 219K), and Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2%).

A rebounding economy is largely priced into stocks at these lofty levels so any significant disappointments out of this morning’s data could trigger some profit taking into the Thanksgiving holiday.

Aside from the economic data, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today which will leave investors focused on any new chatter on the trade war as it remains the single biggest influence on markets right now.

Tom Essaye Quoted in MSN.com on November 25, 2019

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“The market still expects a phase one deal that (most importantly) removes the threat of any further escalation in the trade war. But unless there is a material positive surprise, phase one is not going to include material existing tariff reductions…” said Tom Essaye, the founder of The Sevens Report, in a note.  Click here to read the full article.

New York Stock Exchange

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Channel 12 on November 25, 2019

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Tom Essaye from Sevens Report Research in Palm Beach Gardens spoke to CBS12 News at 9 on how to stay out of money trouble during the holiday season. Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye Interview with Channel 12

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on November 25, 2019

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“The market still expects a phase one deal that (most importantly) removes the threat of any further escalation in the trade war. But unless there is a material positive surprise, phase one is not going to include material existing tariff reductions…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

New York Stock Exchange Traders

Yield Curve Update: Negative Trend Break

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line: Did Something Good Happy Yesterday?
  • Yield Curve Update: Negative Trend Break

Stock futures are little changed this morning as investors digest new Fed chatter and more trade war jawboning.

Fed Chair Powell said he saw the “glass as much more than half full” regarding the current expansion and reiterated that rates will remain unchanged until inflation rises materially.

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators spoke on the phone overnight to discuss “core issues” and reported that they have reached a “common understanding on resolving relevant problems” but no concrete progress was made and the status of phase-one remains unknown.

There are a few potential catalysts to watch today including economic releases: International Trade in Goods (E: -$70.0B), S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), New Home Sales (E: 707K), and Consumer Confidence (E: 126.8) as well as one Fed speaker: Brainard (1:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, there is a 5-Year Treasury note auction today at 1:00 p.m. ET and with the yield curve coming back into focus, any wild swings in the belly of the curve could move stocks (remember we want to see the 10s-2s steepen due to a rising 10-year yield).

Aside from those scheduled events, speakers and reports, the market will clearly remain very sensitive to anything regarding the relationship between the U.S. and China as the trade war remains the single most important influence on this market right now.

Tom Essaye Quoted in CCN on November 22, 2019

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Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research told CNBC that a sizeable crash could be coming for the stock market if talks devolve: If there’s not a China trade deal, you are going to see the S&P 500 go down 10% in a heartbeat. It’s going to fall fast. If the talks collapse this time…Click here to read the full article.

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Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on November 22, 2019

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“People are looking at the stock market that’s going straight up and it’s making them greedy. We’ve had a six-week rally where literally every piece of bad news is completely ignored and…” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said in an interview. Click here to read the full article.

New York Stock Exchange Trader

Why Markets Are Still So Resilient

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Markets Remain So Resilient
  • Weekly Market Preview (Still All About U.S./China Trade)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Wednesday is the Key Day This Week)

Futures are modestly higher on more positive U.S./China trade chatter.

China increased the penalties for Intellectual Property (IP) theft, addressing part of a key U.S. trade demand, while the Global Times (a state-run Chinese paper) said the sides were “very close” to a deal.

Economically, data was mixed but better than October.  German IFO Business Expectations rose to 92.1 vs. (E) 92.5, while British Distributive Trades rose to –3 vs. (E) –10.

Today there are no notable economic reports so the focus will remain on U.S./China trade.  Any incremental positive chatter will be a tailwind for stocks, although the Hong Kong democracy bill remains a wildcard.  If Trump signs it (which he’s expected to do), that could temporarily hit U.S./China trade sentiment, although it’s not a material negative.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 7:00 p.m. ET but he’s not expected to say anything too incremental.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Interviewed with TD Ameritrade Network on November 21, 2019

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Sevens Report co-editor Tyler Richey was interviewed by Ben Lichtenstein from TD Ameritrade Network, discussing oil, energy trade war, commodities and more…Click here to watch the full interview.

TD Ameritrade Interview

Tom Essaye Was Quoted in Axios on November 20, 2019

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“The sooner … phase one is signed (regardless of the details) the better, because both sides want a deal, so the longer it’s delayed, the more the market will begin to…” Tom Essaye, founder of market research firm Sevens Report Research, wrote in a note to clients. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Headshot