With the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged and rates seemingly to remain low for now, fixed-income market watchers are reviewing their outlooks on the best places to invest now. Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, says in a research note that the Fed’s decision to consider “global developments and muted inflation pressures,” along with the U.S. economic…Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower on rising general concerns about the geo-political fallout from the Soleimani killing.
Geo-political headlines over the weekend were incrementally negative, but none of them were specific or material enough to imply a material drop in stocks is more likely, and the dip in futures is driven by just general concerns (more on that inside the Report).
Economic data, meanwhile, was positive as Dec. German Retail Sales, EU Services PMI (52.8 vs. (E) 52.4, and UK Services PMI (50.0 vs. (E ) 49.0) all beat estimates.
Today geo-political headlines will continue to dominate trading, and any implication of further deterioration in the U.S./Iran situation will weigh on futures. Economically, the key number to watch it the December Markit Services PMI (E: 52.2) and, as remains the case, the stronger the number, the better.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply lower following a spike in geopolitical tensions after a U.S. military strike killed a high ranking Iranian general.
A U.S. missile strike killed Iranian general Suleimani, who was the head of the Iranian military and arguably the second (and definitely the third) most important man in Iran. Iran has vowed a response and oil spiked 4% on the news.
Today focus will be on any Iranian military response, and obviously a further escalation in tensions will be negative for markets.
Away from geopolitics, we also get an important economic report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.1) and several Fed speakers including Barkin (11:05 a.m. ET), Brainard & Evans (1:15 p.m. ET), Kaplan (3:30 p.m. ET) and the FOMC Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET).
“The whole infrastructure of the market is changing, for all of us, especially traders, dealing with this extreme short-term volatility is something we all have to get more used to. And, we have to somehow assimilate that into our trading plans and figure out how…” said veteran trader and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye on Yahoo Finance’s “The First Trade.” Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye interviewed with Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre from Yahoo Finance. Click here to watch the full interview.
“The market was very overbought at the end of last week. Nothing really new has occurred to push the market up in…” said Sevens Report‘s Tom Essaye.
“The best-performing Q4 sectors are leading to the downside today, and that implies some short-term selling and people positioning before year-end. The market was very overbought at the end of last week. Nothing really…” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher yet again following another quiet night of news as the melt-up continues into year-end.
Chinese Industrial Profits rose 5.4% in November, the first gain in three months, and this headline is mostly responsible for the gain in futures this morning.
Other economic data was mixed, as Japanese Industrial Production (-0.9% vs. (E) -1.4%) and Unemployment (2.2% vs. (E) 2.4%) beat estimates, while Retail Sales slightly missed (-2.1% vs. (E) -1.7%).
Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers, and if should be a generally quiet day.
“Stocks are grinding relentlessly higher into year-end on continued momentum from the positive resolution of four key events: A phase one trade deal…” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said Monday. Click here to read the full article.
“Stocks are grinding relentlessly higher into year-end on continued momentum from the positive resolution of four key events: A phase one trade deal, a dovish Fed…” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said Monday. Click here to read the full article.