“The not-too distant memory of negative oil prices still stings traders across the space as the threat of another supply chain crunch would rise exponentially with…” analysts wrote in the latest newsletter from Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“The combination of no stimulus, fading economic momentum, and the threat of rising coronavirus cases…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, in a note to clients. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply lower as surging coronavirus cases in Europe are sparking fears of another self-imposed economic slowdown.
New lockdowns were announced across Europe, with some of the toughest measures coming in London and Paris.
Today there are several important economic reports, including Jobless Claims (E: 833K), Empire State Manufacturing (E: 14.5) and Philly Fed (E: 14.5). Markets will want to see jobless claims get below 800k to show the labor market is improving, while Empire and Philly provide the first look at October economic data and markets will want to see stability. With futures down sharply, any disappointment in the economic data could exacerbate the losses.
We also get multiple Fed speakers today, Bostic (9:00 a.m. ET), Kaplan (11:00 a.m. ET), Quarles (11:00 a.m. ET) plus some notable earnings, TSM ($0.92), WBA ($0.96), MS ($1.26), but I don’t think any of that will move markets unless there’s a big surprise lurking.
Tom Essaye, founder and president at Sevens Report Research, interviewed with BNN Bloomberg on October 10, 2020. He says the velocity with which the U.S. stock market has been…Click here to watch the full interview.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures pulled back overnight on news that JNJ halted a phase 3 trial for a COVID-19 vaccine due to an adverse reaction in one of the volunteers, however, futures have since stabilized and are only modestly lower this morning.
Economically, Chinese trade data showed that exports continued to rise in September, up from 9.5% to 9.9% pointing to an ongoing recovery in the Chinese economy.
Today, there is one economic release due ahead of the bell: CPI (E: 0.2%) and one Fed speaker late this evening: Daly (8:00 p.m. ET) but neither is expected to materially move markets given the other market influences on the calendar today.
The first of which is the start of Q3 earnings season with several big names scheduled to release results including: JPM ($2.35), C ($1.01), DAL (-$3.10), JNJ ($1.99), FAST ($0.37), FRB ($1.38), and BLK ($7.46).
Additionally, today is Amazon’s “Prime Day” so online shopping activity will be significantly elevated but if initial reports suggest a weaker than anticipated consumer turnout, the disappointment could weigh on stocks.
Apple is also set to unveil the latest iPhone models at a product launch and given the weight the stock carries in the major indexes, a good event will be good for markets while an underwhelming event could see a good portion of yesterday’s gains given back.
Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye said in August he saw five similarities between today’s market and the 2000 dot-com bubble.
The sideways trend of the yield curve and the stage being set for inflation were two of the reasons…Click here to read the full article.
On Thursday, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye said the market isn’t ignoring the headlines. It’s simply assuming everything will work out for the best in the coming months…Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher thanks to strength in Asian markets combined with still positive momentum from last week’s rally. Broadly speaking, it was a quiet weekend of news.
Chinese markets rallied more than 2% on strong “Golden Week” sales, confirming the strong economic recovery.
Politically, there was no notable news on stimulus over the weekend and a deal is still not expected before the election.
Today is Columbus Day so bond markets will be closed and there is no economic data and just one Fed speaker, Kashkari at 9:00 a.m. ET. Given the quiet calendar, stimulus headlines will continue to move stocks, but at this point it’s very unlikely a deal gets done before November 3rd, and the markets are becoming immune to the endless commentary about “positive” negotiations that yield no actual progress.
“The personal saving rate has gone way up and what are people doing with their money. They’re renovating their homes…” said Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Research founder and president to WPTV’s Arthur Mondale Click here to watch the full video.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher again on momentum from the previous day’s rally, as it was another quiet night of news.
Economic data overnight was disappointing, as the Chinese Composite PMI missed estimates (54.5 vs. (E) 55.0), as did Japanese Household Spending and UK IP.
Politically, nothing changed overnight, as no stimulus is expected until after the election.
Today there are no notable economic reports and only one Fed speaker, Barkin at 9:00 a.m. ET, so stimulus headlines will likely drive trading, as they have all week.