“This will be a unique earnings season,” Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded the “Sevens Report” newsletter, wrote in a note. “But it remains critically important because it’ll give us microeconomic insight into the question of ‘How bad is the damage?’…Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply higher thanks to a positive article on a Gilead drug effectively treating coronavirus.
GILD’s drug Remdesivir has been effective in reducing symptoms in a very small (125 people) study at a Chicago hospital, but the news is sending stocks higher. For those interested, a link to the article is here.
Economically, Chinese data was weaker than expected as Q1 GDP fell –6.8% vs. (E) -6.0%.
There are no notable economic reports today so focus will remain on any additional coronavirus information, along with earnings. Some reports we’re watching today include: PG ($1.11), SLB ($0.25), CFG ($1.61).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are cautiously higher this morning but international markets were mostly lower overnight as investors weigh the effectiveness of COVID-19 containment strategies against their longer term impact on the global economy.
Economically, Eurozone Industrial Production was the only release overnight (-0.1% vs. E: -0.1%) but it was a February number and therefor largely dismissed by the markets.
This morning, focus will be on what will likely be the most important economic release of the week: Jobless Claims (E: 5.50M) as a larger than expected number of claims will point to further deterioration in the labor market while a smaller number will suggest the government stimulus efforts are beginning to work in supporting the U.S. jobs market.
There are two other economic reports to watch: Housing Starts (E: 1.32M) and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: -29.5) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
Beyond economic data, investors will be sifting through more Q1 earnings releases including results from: BLK ($6.69), ABT ($0.58), TSM ($0.66), and BK ($0.90), as well as any new developments on the broader COVID-19 situation.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are decidedly lower with global markets this morning as optimism for a V-shaped economic recovery fades ahead of key economic data and more important earnings today.
Additionally, Trump cut funding to the WHO, raising tensions with China while WTI crude oil prices fell to fresh 18-year lows, below $20/barrel, overnight as a complete lack of demand continues to weigh on the broader energy markets right now.
Looking into today’s session, it is lining up to be a busy one from a potential catalyst standing.
First, there are several important economic reports due to be released including: Retail Sales (E: -7.0%), Empire State Manufacturing Survey (E: -35.0), Industrial Production (E: -4.2%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 60) while there is one Fed official schedule to speak: Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET).
Earnings will also be a major focus today with Q1 results due out from: BAC ($0.65), C ($1.83), GS ($2.83), PNC ($2.24), USB ($0.87), PGR ($1.44), and BBBY ($0.21).
Stocks have become near-term overbought over the last few weeks so any notably negative news flow regarding economic data, earnings, or the coronavirus pandemic could cause a potentially volatile wave of profit taking.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are higher with most overseas markets today as COVID-19 case growth continues to slow in the U.S., economic data was better than feared overnight and investor focus is shifting ahead to Q1 earnings season.
In March, Chinese exports fell -6.6% vs. (E) -15.0% and imports were down -0.9% vs. (E) -8.0% suggesting the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic may be less than initially feared.
Today, there is one lesser followed economic report: Import and Export Prices (E: 3.1%, -2.0%), and two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Bullard (11:05 a.m. ET) and Evans (12:30 p.m. ET).
But, the market’s main focus will be the start of Q1 earnings season, which is going to be extremely important as the corporate results and forecasts will provide much needed context on the outlook for 2020 EPS expectations in the coming weeks. Today, JPM ($2.49), WFC ($0.61), JNJ ($2.08), and FAST ($0.34) all report before the bell while JBHT ($2.22) will release results after the close.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower following a generally quiet weekend as markets digest last week’s big rally.
OPEC+ agreed to cut global oil output by 9.7 mln barrels/day, slightly below to 10 mln barrel/day estimate. That will improve the supply/demand imbalance, but it won’t spark a big rally in oil (it’ll take a sooner than expected reopening of the global economy to do that). For stocks, this is a mild positive as oil probably won’t make new lows going forward.
Coronavirus trends continued to improve over the weekend as it becomes more clear virus growth has peaked, although that’s already priced into stocks at these levels.
Today there are no economic reports or Fed speak, and most of Europe is closed, so any coronavirus updates will likely drive trading.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower following a generally quiet night as markets digest this weeks’ gains ahead of jobless claims and the Powell speech.
On the coronavirus front, news was again positive as Austria and Denmark became the first European countries to begin to lift coronavirus restrictions.
Economic data overnight was better than feared as German exports and British IP both beat estimates.
Today focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 5 MM) and the Powell speech (10:00 a.m. ET). For claims, it’d be a positive surprise if they declined from last week’s number and that’d add to the good news from this week, while a spike towards 10MM would be a modest negative vs. expectations.
For the Powell speech, markets just want reassurance that the Fed is committed to doing whatever it takes to ensure orderly operation of markets, which is what we should get.
There was a “follow through short-squeeze” in gold prices early Tuesday following Monday’s sharp gain, but that morning squeeze gave way to retracement “as gold became…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
International markets were mixed o/n and U.S. stock futures are little changed in choppy trade as investors continue to look for clarity on infection and death statistics related to COVID-19 while digesting a volatile start to the week.
Economically, Japanese Machine Orders rose 2.3% in Feb. vs. (E) -2.7, underscoring the resilience of the manufacturing sector as the coronavirus outbreak began to accelerate.
There are no economic reports due to be released today but the Treasury will hold a 30-Yr Bond Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and then the Minutes of the most recent FOMC Meeting will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET.
With investors still primarily focused on any developments regarding the coronavirus pandemic, it is unlikely that those two catalysts will move markets today however if there are any surprises, we could see a reaction as volatility remains elevated amid an uncertain macro backdrop.