“A combination of 1) Stimulus, 2) Positive trends in the virus, 3) Economic reopenings and 4) Hopes for a vaccine drove stocks higher in Q2,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. “As we begin Q3, only one of those tailwinds is currently in place: Stimulus. That doesn’t mean we’ll see a correction, but be suspect of market rallies until we can add more forces supporting stocks, because…” Click here to read the full article.
Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joined Yahoo Finance’s Brian Sozzi and Jared Blikre to discuss how the markets are faring amid volatile news about the coronavirus. Click here to watch the full video.
“The second quarter will not soon be forgotten by energy traders given that WTI crude oil futures plunged into negative territory for the first time in history, and decidedly so, in the month of April…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. That was “due to logistics issues in the physical supply chain, most notably a critical lack of available storage for freshly lifted crude barrels in the U.S.” On April 20, WTI oil futures fell 306% to settle at negative $37.63. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly higher thanks mostly to continued momentum following Wednesday’s rally.
Economic data was sparse overnight, as the only notable report was the Eurozone Unemployment Rate, which slightly beat estimates (7.4% vs. (E) 7.7%).
Coronavirus cases continued to rise in the U.S. and hit a new daily record above 50k.
Today the focus will be on the Employment Situation Report, and the expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 3.000M, UE Rate: 12.4%, Wages: -0.8%). As long as the number isn’t a major disappointment (say below 2.5MM) it likely won’t interrupt this week’s lift in markets.
We also get Jobless Claims (E: 1.400M) this morning, and while it’ll be overshadowed by the monthly jobs report, claims are actually more important, and if they can continue to decline towards 1MM (and beat expectations) that will be an additional tailwind on stocks. Conversely, if claims start to move higher, that could offset even a better than expected monthly jobs report.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are trading modestly lower this morning after the S&P 500 registered its best quarterly gain in over 20 years in Q2 while economic data was mostly better than expected overnight.
Economically, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI firmed to 51.2 in June from 50.7 in May while the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.4 from 39.4 in May pointing to a continued rebound in economic activity last month.
Today, we will get our first look at June jobs data with the ADP Employment Report (E: 3.500M) due out ahead of the bell while the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.0) and Construction Spending (E: 0.8%) will both be released shortly after the open.
Later in the day, the only real catalyst to watch for is the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:30 p.m. ET as traders will be looking for any additional insight into the Fed’s future stimulus plans or view of the state of the economy.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as investors weigh a continued rise in coronavirus cases and escalating geopolitical tensions against positive economic data.
China’s CFLP Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 vs. (E) 50.5 in June indicating an acceleration in the economic recovery.
China’s parliament passed a new national security law for Hong Kong o/n but specific details have yet to be released.
Today, there are two economic reports to watch: S&P Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.5%) and Consumer Confidence (E: 90.0) as well as a slew of Fed speak to monitor: Williams (7:00 & 11:00 a.m. ET), Powell (12:30 p.m. ET), Bostic (2:00 p.m. ET), and Kashkari (2:00 p.m. ET).
Powell’s testimony before Congress, alongside Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, will be the “main event” today and as long as they reiterate their plans for stimulus measures to continue for the foreseeable future, stocks should be able to end the second quarter in a relatively quiet manner this afternoon.
“Coronavirus cases are spiking and reopenings are being delayed, which at a minimum will impact earnings. The resurgence in coronavirus cases is raising concerns that the rebound may be short-lived as voluntary…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
“Coronavirus cases are spiking and reopenings are being delayed, which at a minimum will impact earnings. The resurgence in coronavirus cases is raising concerns that the rebound may be short-lived as voluntary or potentially more…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, clarified the specific impact that new lockdown measures could have on the market. “Coronavirus cases are spiking and reopenings are being delayed, which at a minimum will impact earnings…” Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.
“Coronavirus cases are spiking and reopenings are being delayed, which at a minimum will impact earnings. The resurgence in coronavirus cases is raising concerns that the rebound may be short-lived as…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the article
