On balance, the supply data Wednesday were “bullish for energy as oil stockpiles and production fell while…” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Thursday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, also sees plenty of upside despite unclear vote totals.
“News of a contested election could cause a sharp drop in stocks in the very short term, …” he said. Click here to read the full article.
“Ultimately, the markets want clarity, and the main threat this week is the emergence of a contested…” Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report and a stock market analyst, wrote in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply higher again thanks to momentum from Wednesday’s rally, combined with more than expected QE from the Bank of England.
The Bank of England will increase its QE program by 150 billion Pounds, larger than the expected 100 billion, underscoring that global central banks are become more active in supporting their economies.
Politically, markets expect Biden to reach 270 electoral votes today with the official call of Nevada (which would put him exactly at 270). The market is viewing the election as largely decided despite what will be a myriad of legal challenges.
Today the big event is the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET). I’d expect the Fed will keep a lower than normal profile given the election uncertainty, but the market’s focus will be any commentary that implies it’s open to more QE (if they don’t mention it, we could see mild disappointment like we saw in September).
Beyond the Fed and election headline watching, we also get weekly Jobless Claims (E: 745K) and markets will want to see that number continue to decline.
It’s been a very late night and a very early morning and much of this analysis has been changing by the hour, and as such hasn’t been edited. Please forgive any excessive typos.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures have gyrated wildly throughout the night on the shifting election outlook but as of this writing they are marginally higher.
In the Presidential election numerous (seven) states remain undecided and the Presidential race is very close.
Republicans have outperformed in Senate races and are now favored to hold the majority, likely yielding a divided government.
Today focus will remain on the election and specifically when the remaining six states (NC/GA/PA/MI/WI/NV) are called.
Outside of the election, we also get the ADP Employment Report (E: 600K) and the ISM Services Index (E: 57.6), but while important reports, they’ll be overshadowed by the election headlines, and we need to be prepared for a lot of “noise” and intra-day volatility.
“If the race is decided by the verdict in a single state … and the margin is close (less than 1%), then both the Biden and Trump campaigns will send lawyers…” wrote Tom Essaye, president of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
“Ultimately, the markets want clarity, and the main threat to risk assets this week is the emergence of a contested election, so if races are tight enough for campaigns…” Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, wrote in a note. Click here to read the full article.
“Ultimately, the markets want clarity, and the main threat to risk assets this week is the emergence of a contested election, so if races are tight enough for…” Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, wrote in a note. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye of Sevens Report thinks a Biden win could bring major benefits for all cruise stocks, including Royal Caribbean, according to a report by Benzinga. Essaye sees the possibility of cruise lines cashing in on a possible $5 trillion Biden stimulus package in the short term, and that in the longer term, “re-opening travel to Cuba would be another positive…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are rising with global shares this morning as the U.S. election comes into focus after a mostly quiet night of news.
There were no notable economic reports or market-moving COVID-19 developments overnight leaving investors focus almost exclusively on today’s election.
There are two economic reports today: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.5M) and Factory Orders (E: 0.6%) but neither should move markets and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.
There are a few notable earnings releases to watch today that could influence sector trading: MCK ($3.87), HUM ($2.86), SYY ($0.20), and PRU ($2.69) but none of the quarterly reports are likely to have a significant impact on the broader market.
Today, the election will clearly be in the forefront of investor focus, specifically how close the races in key swing states turn out to be. Ultimately, the markets want clarity, and the main threat to risk assets this week is the emergence of a contested election, so if races are tight enough for campaigns to sue to halt or extend recounts, expect a reversal of this morning’s rally and potentially significant risk-off money flows in the sessions ahead.