Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday (It Wasn’t CPI)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Yesterday (It Wasn’t CPI)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are enjoying a mild bounce following Wednesday’s losses as global yields are stable while U.S. bond markets are closed.

10 year Bund and GILT yields are little changed and that, combined with the bond market closure in the U.S., is allowing stocks to rebound.

Economically, British IP missed estimates (-0.4% vs. (E) 0.1%) while monthly GDP slightly beat (0.6% vs. (E) 0.5%).

Today is Veterans Day and as such, the bond markets are closed and there will be no economic reports and no Fed speakers.  So, GILT and Bund yields will partially dictate trading and as long as they don’t rise, stocks can continue this early rebound from yesterday’s losses.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

Stock futures are mildly lower and Treasury yields are rising with the dollar this morning after hotter than expected Chinese inflation data is prompting some hawkish money flows ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report.

Economically, Chinese CPI rose slightly more than forecast in October (1.5% vs. E: 1.4%) but PPI surged 13.5% vs. (E) 12.0% which was the highest reading since 1995.

Looking into today’s session there are a few potential catalysts to move markets with the October CPI release (E: 0.5%) being the primary focus but Jobless Claims data (E: 267K) will also warrant attention. Both reports are due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After those pre-market releases, the schedule is pretty clear with no Fed officials speaking over the course of the day but there is a 30-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and potentially stocks.

Finally, earnings season is already beginning to wind down however DIS ($0.50) will report quarterly results after the closing bell.

Bottom line, focus is on inflation data and if today’s CPI report runs hot, we could see taper expectations, as well as the market’s rate hike outlook, take a hawkish turn which would spur broad market volatility.

 

Market Multiple Table: November Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: November Update

Stock futures pulled back overnight following the release of the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, which noted stretched asset prices, but markets have since stabilized as new domestic inflation data comes into focus.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey was mixed (Current Conditions missed, Economic Sentiment beat) while the NFIB report was mildly underwhelming however neither report materially moved markets in pre-market trade.

Looking into today’s session, earnings season continues with a lot of smaller cap companies reporting however focus this morning will be on economic data with the October PPI report due before the bell (E: 0.6% M/M, 8.6% Y/Y).

Then the Fed speaker circuit also remains active today with Bullard (7:50 a.m. ET), Powell (9:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:30 p.m. ET) all speaking over the course of the session and the market will be looking for further confirmation that rate hikes will not commence before late 2022 otherwise we could see a hawkish reaction from markets.

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move bonds and subsequently trigger a reaction from stocks.

Near-Term Macro Calm (But Risks Building for 2022)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Near Term Macro Calm (But Risks Building for 2022)
  • Weekly Market Preview (Risks of An Accelerated Taper?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Key Inflation Data This Week)

Futures are little changed following a quiet weekend outside of the passage of the physical infrastructure bill.

On Friday the House passed the physical infrastructure bill but it’s only $550 billion of new spending over 10 years, and that’s not going to have a big impact on the economy.

The broader $1.75 trillion spending bill remains under debate as Democrat infighting continues, but a deal is expected by year-end.

Today there are no economic reports, but there are numerous Fed speakers and the market will be looking for insight into the possibility of an accelerated taper beyond December.  Powell (10:30 a.m.) is the headliner today but he’s only making opening remarks and shouldn’t offer any insights on policy.  Vice Chair Clarida (9:00 a.m.) will speak on policy, so his interview is probably the most important one to watch today.  Other Fed speakers include Montgomery (10:00 a.m.), Harker (12:00 p.m.) and Evans (1:50 p.m.) but they shouldn’t move markets.

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Why the Bank of England Surprise Matters to You
  • OPEC Decision and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and despite underwhelming European economic data.

German Industrial Production (-1.1% vs. (E) 0.9%) and EU Retail Sales (-0.3% vs. (E) 0.8%) both missed estimates but those reports aren’t moving markets.

House Democrats are expected to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill later today, while the larger $1.75 trillion stimulus bill remains in negotiations.

Today focus will be on the Jobs Report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds:  400K, UE Rate:   4.7%, Wages: 0.4%/4.8%.  Given the Fed didn’t commit to a $15 billion tapering beyond December, a “Too Hot” number (in either jobs adds or wages) could cause market volatility, but outside of that occurring the jobs report shouldn’t move markets too much.  We also get one Fed Speaker, George at 9:30 a.m. ET.

What Fed Tapering Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Fed Tapering Means for Markets (Short Term Positive, Medium Term Uncertainty)
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher following a generally quiet night of news as markets digest Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Economic data was sparse and the only notable report was German Manufacturers’ Orders which missed estimates, falling –1.8% vs. (E ) –1.3%.

There was no progress on the Democrat’s spending bill overnight as Manchin remains a holdout, but a deal is ultimately expected in the coming days or weeks.

Today focus will be on economic data and we get two notable reports:  Jobless Claims (E: 277K) and Productivity and Costs (E: -1.5%, 5.3%) and one Fed speaker, Quarles at 1:50 p.m. ET.  But, unless there’s a major surprise from the data, focus will turn back to Congress and the fate of the Democrat spending bill, and any headlines that imply quick passage without any material tax hikes will be a short-term tailwind on stocks.

Fed Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (Abbreviated Version)
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Decision
  • CME FedWatch Tool – Chart

Stock futures are little changed near record highs as a sense of Fed paralysis grips the markets ahead of the FOMC announcement today.

Economic data overnight was slightly better than expected (both the Chinese PMI Composite and Eurozone Unemployment rate beat) but the market reaction was limited with the Fed in focus.

This morning, there are several fairly important economic reports to watch as the ADP Employment Report (E: 400K) kicks off jobs week before the bell, and then we get both Factory Orders (E: 0.1%) and the ISM Services Index (E: 61.9) shortly after the open. Unless there are major surprises in any of the reports, however, the market impact should be limited with the Fed looming.

After the data is released, markets are likely to quiet down ahead of the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will be the session’s main events.

Finally, earnings will continue to roll out with CVS ($1.79), MAR ($0.97), and HUM ($4.61) releasing results before the open, and ROKU ($0.06), QCOM ($2.26), and MGM (-$0.04) reporting after the close.

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • ISM Manufacturing Index – Takeaways

U.S. futures are trading slightly lower along with most overseas markets following mostly inline economic data and a less-hawkish-than-feared RBA meeting outcome.

The RBA struck a slightly dovish tone in their latest meeting announcement, especially with regard to inflation, which is pressuring bond yields this morning.

Today is lining up to be a fairly slow day with just one economic data point due out: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 12.4M) while the focus will begin to shift to the November FOMC meeting which begins this morning.

There is a 52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and while it is not typically a widely followed auction, the results could shed new light on investor expectations for rate hikes next year, and therefore could impact markets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

Lastly, earnings season remains in full swing with several notable results due out today from: PFE ($1.08), UAA ($0.15), COP ($1.53), ZG ($0.16), TMUS ($0.54), LYFT (-$-0.04), PGR ( $1.09).

Tom Essaye Quoted in CNBC on October 28, 2021

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10-year Treasury yield moves higher despite disappointing GDP update

The last few weeks have seen the ‘hawkish’ global central banks making a lot of noise…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said in a note. Click here to read the full article.

 

Macro Clarity This Week?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can We Get Macro Clarity This Week?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  A Very Busy Week (Final Oct. PMIs, Fed Decision, Jobs Report)

Futures are modestly higher on tariff reduction and hopes Democrats will pass the spending bill early this week.

The US and EU eased steel tariffs this weekend and that is leading to hope that U.S./China tariffs could also be cut.

Democrats have coalesced around a $1.75 trillion spending bill with few tax increases that could be passed this week.

Economic data was mixed as the Oct. Chinese Manufacturing PMI missed estimates (49.2 vs. (E) 49.7) while the UK reading slightly beat (57.8 vs. (E) 57.7).

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 60.3) and markets will want to see stability in the data to show the recovery remains on solid ground.  Additionally, any further signals from Washington that the spending bill will be signed this week should be at least a mild tailwind on markets today.