Money Supply and Stocks: Is There a Disconnect?

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Money Supply and Stocks: Is There a Disconnect? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Money Supply and Stocks: Is There a Disconnect?
  • ISM Services Index Takeaways (Slightly Dovish)

Futures are rebounding with global shares amid positive stimulus news out of China and mostly better-than-feared economic data overseas ahead of several important catalysts today.

Overnight, China’s State Planner and the head of the PBOC both reiterated their commitment to achieving 5% growth in 2024 which is supporting a rebound in risk assets as investors gain confidence in the prospects of a stabilizing Chinese economy.

Eurozone Retail Sales fell -1.0% vs. (E) -1.4% helping ease concerns of a sharp slowdown in the EU economy which is adding to the risk-on money flows this morning.

Looking into the U.S. session, focus will be on economic data early today starting with the: ADP Employment Report (E: +150K job adds) followed by the JOLTS release (E: 8.9 million job openings).

From there attention will turn to Capitol Hill where Fed Chair Powell will begin his semi-annual testimony at 10:00 a.m. ET. The Fed’s Daly (12:00 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (4:15 p.m. ET) will also speak today but Powell will be firmly in the spotlight as investors look for clues as to whether the FOMC plans to begin rate cuts in the second quarter (market positive) or wait until H2’24 (market negative).

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Why the Tech Sector Is Like a Modern Day Gold Rush

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Tech Sector Is Like a Modern Day Gold Rush
  • Chart: Rising Market-Based Inflation Expectations Bolster Gold Prices

U.S. futures are modestly lower this morning as Chinese economic concerns are offsetting a cool EU inflation print.

A sizeable new wave of Chinese stimulus actions failed to soothe investor worries about the economy overnight, underwhelming investors as China’s Service PMI unexpectedly fell to 52.5 vs. (E) 52.9 in February.

In Europe, financial news flow was better as the EU Composite PMI rose to 49.2 vs. (E) 48.9 while PPI fell a steep -0.9% vs. (E) -0.1% helping to ease some recent worries about a resurgence in price pressures.

Looking into today’s session there are three domestic economic reports to watch: Composite PMI (E: 51.4), Factory Orders (E: -3.0%), and the ISM Services Index (E: 53.0). The ISM print will be the most important as investors will be looking for continued strength in consumer spending but steady or easing price indices to underscore disinflation has not stalled/reversed.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and with Powell’s testimony looming tomorrow a slow churn in markets or modest continuation lower could play out today as short term traders book profits from the most recent run to record highs.

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Is This A Teflon Market? (No. Here’s Why)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This A Teflon Market? (No. Here’s Why)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Data and Fed Speak Extend the Rally?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  All About Employment (Jobs Report Friday among others).

Futures are slightly lower following quiet weekend of news as markets digest Friday’s rally.

Geopolitically, hope is growing for a six-week ceasefire in Gaza that could be announced in the coming days and that’s modestly weighing on oil prices.

The S&P 500 will become even more “AI” sensitive as SMCI  (Super Microcomputer) will in added to the S&P 500, incrementally increasing tech exposure to the index.

This will be a potentially busy week of catalysts but it starts slowly today as there are no economic reports and just one Fed speaker, Harker at 11:00 a.m. ET.  So, absent any surprises, expect yields to drive stocks.  If the 10-year Treasury yield drifts lower, don’t be surprised if stocks recoup these early losses.

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What Number Would Make Core PCE Negative for Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Number Would Make Core PCE Negative for Stocks?
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are modestly lower as EU inflation data disappointed overnight while tech earnings underwhelmed.

Economically, French and Spanish CPIs showed on going disinflation but it was slower than expected (mirroring what we’ve seen recently in the U.S.).

On earnings, CRM and SNOW posted underwhelming earnings and that’s modestly weighting on tech shares.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 2.8% y/y) as that’s the most important report of the week.  Risk/reward into this number is skewed slightly positive as inflation concerns are already elevated and partially priced in, so it should take a solidly hot number to weigh on markets, while just an “in-line” reading would be welcomed.

Other data notable data today includes Jobless Claims (E: 210K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.8%) and we have three Fed speakers, Bostic (10:50 a.m.), Goolsbee (11:00 a.m.) and Mester (1:15 p.m. ET) although barring a major surprise from those reports/speakers, they shouldn’t move markets.

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Hard vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard: More Signs of Slowing Growth

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing vs. Soft Landing Scoreboard: Still a Soft Landing But More Signs of Slowing Growth
  • Chart: Consumer Confidence Data Points to Slowing Growth

Futures are lower as traders continue to reposition following last week’s sprint to record highs while focus shifts ahead to tomorrow’s critical inflation data.

Economically, the headline of the Eurozone Economic Sentiment report fell to 95.4 vs. (E) 96.7 which didn’t help risk assets in pre-market trade.

Today, traders will be watching the release of Q4 GDP (E: 3.3%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$88.1B) ahead of the bell. Any data that is not Goldilocks (or “Platinumlocks”) will likely keep stocks under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s PCE Price Index report.

Later in the day, there are several Fed speakers: Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Collins (12:15 p.m. ET), and Williams (12:45 p.m. ET). Bostic and Williams are on the FOMC, so their comments have the potential to move markets with tomorrow’s inflation data coming into view.

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Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Government Shutdown Update
  • Which Sectors Benefit From Trump’s Policies
  • “Short-Volatility Trade” Update: Chart

Futures are little changed this morning as investors digest a hotter than expected inflation print out of Japan and still cautious gauge of consumer sentiment in Europe ahead of a busy day of economic data in the U.S.

Overnight, Japanese Core CPI fell to 3.5% vs. (E) 3.3% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up by a modest 0.7 points to -29.0 vs. (E) -29.6. Neither release was particularly positive for markets but futures are stable ahead of today’s domestic data.

Looking into today’s session, there are four economic reports to watch this morning: Durable Goods Orders (E: -4.5%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.2%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 115.0). Markets will want to see stability in the housing market data and easing but not collapsing growth and sentiment numbers in order for stocks to hold near the recently established record highs.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s 2-Yr and 5-Yr Note auctions were weak, putting upward pressure on yields and if today’s 7-Yr auction is weak as well, expect the benchmark 10-Yr yield to test the critical 4.30% level which could weigh on equity markets.

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What’s Changed Since October (And Is It Worth A 25% Rally?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Changed Since October (And Is It Worth A 25% Rally?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Can Data and News Stay Platinumlocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  An Important Week for Inflation.

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet weekend of news.

Geopolitically, news was mixed over the weekend.  Positively, progress was made in negotiating a Israel/Hamas cease fire and there is hope an agreement can be reached this week.  Negatively, chances of a U.S. government shutdown on March 1st (this Friday) are rising.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

This will be a busy week of important economic data, earnings and political news (possible government shutdown on Friday) but it starts slowly as the only notable economic report today is New Home Sales (E: 685k) and there is just one Fed speaker, Schmid at 7:40 p.m. ET.  So, focus will remain on the political headlines today and if shutdown chances increase, look for mild pressure on stocks.

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What Blowout NVDA Earnings Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Blowout NVDA Earnings Mean for Markets

Futures are sharply higher thanks to stronger than expected NVDA earnings (stock up 14% pre-market) as Nasdaq futures surge by more than 2%.

NVDA results beat on revenue, earnings and guidance and global markets are higher on renewed AI enthusiasm.

Economically, EU and UK flash PMIs were very slightly better than expected but aren’t moving markets.

Today focus will shift back to economic data and the notable reports today are Jobless Claims (E: 216K), February Flash PMIs (E: 51.4) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.98 M).  The more Goldilocks the data, the better for markets and the key remains Treasury yields.  If yields rise in response to the data, look for a headwind on stocks to push back on the NVDA led rally.

There are also multiple Fed speakers today including Jefferson, Harker, Kashkari, Cook & Waller but barring a major surprise, they shouldn’t move markets (Fed messaging has been very consistent lately:  Inflation is receding, but they need more proof before cutting rates which means a June cut is most likely at this point).

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How the Magnificent Seven and the Kansas City Chiefs Are Similar

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How the Magnificent Seven and the Kansas City Chiefs Are Similar (Bubble Watch)
  • Chart: Visualizing Historical P/E Ratios for the Magnificent Seven

Futures are mildly lower as traders look ahead to the Fed minutes release this afternoon and NVDA earnings after the close.

Overseas, Chinese stocks rallied to turn positive YTD after authorities expanded measures aimed at stabilizing the markets while Australian wage growth rose 4.2.% vs. 4.1% y/y prompting some modestly hawkish money flows.

There are no notable economic reports today, but the January Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and that could move Treasury yields and ultimately impact stocks.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers today: Bostic (8:00 a.m. ET) and Bowman (1:00 p.m. ET), as well as a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction (1:00 p.m. ET). Any of those events could also move yields and influence equity trading intraday, but the main event today is NVDA earnings (E: $4.55/share) and markets will likely maintain a positioning tone into the quarterly report after the bell.

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Why Didn’t Hot Inflation Data Cause a Bigger Drop?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Didn’t the Hot Inflation Data Cause a Bigger Drop?
  • Economic Takeaways – Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

Stock futures are lower to start the week as a rate cut by China’s central bank failed to bolster investors’ appetite for risk overseas while domestic focus shifts to NVDA earnings.

The PBOC slashed the 5-Yr Loan Prime Rate by a record 25 bp overnight (E: -5 bp) but the rate cut failed to ease lingering concerns about the health of the property market and markets are trading with a moderate risk-off tone this morning.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: Leading Economic Indicators (E: -0.1%) which has been flashing a recession signal for months, and Canadian CPI (E: 0.4%) which could further stoke inflation worries if the number comes in hot.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 52-Week Bill action at 1:00 p.m. ET. Based on the market’s increased sensitivity to rising bond yields in recent weeks, signs of weak demand in the auction could send yields to new highs which would act as a strengthening headwind on risk assets as we start the week.

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