New and Interesting ETFs for Your Watchlist

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New and Interesting ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are slightly lower following “not good enough” earnings and a lack of trade deal progress.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) was the big report overnight and it beat estimates, but the results weren’t as good as hoped for and the stock is down –6% pre-market.

On trade, a deal with India and the EU before the August 1st deadline is looking increasingly less likely.

Today there are no economic reports but there is a speech from Fed Chair Powell (8:30 a.m. ET) and markets will be look for any clues that he’s more open to a July rate cut (this is very unlikely and he’ll almost certainty stay in the “wait and see” mode, but if he were dovish it’d be a market positive).  We also hear from Governor Bowman today (1:00 p.m. ET).

On earnings, the week continues to ramp up and some reports we’re watching today include:  KO ($0.83), PM ($1.85) , GM ($2.45), TXN ($1.32).

 

 

Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold

The Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold has been met with extremely positive feedback as thought-provoking research.

As a reminder, this report is free for all Sevens Report subscribers and can be accessed on the “My Reports” section of www.sevensreport.com.   

Some subscribers have expressed interest in sharing this with clients, both as a Sevens Report branded publication and as a “White Labeled” version, and that option is available for purchase for a discounted price. 

To learn more about the white labeled version of the Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold Special Report, please click this link.   

 

Why Markets Continue to Ignore Macro Risks

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Markets Continue to Ignore Macro Risks
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Focus Turns to Earnings (Including Major Tech Names)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Flash PMIs Thursday is the Big Report This Week

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum following a generally quiet weekend of news.

There were no notable trade headlines over the weekend and markets are still awaiting any progress on trade deals with the EU, India and Japan.

Economically, there were no notable international reports overnight.

Today there is only one economic report, Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%), and it shouldn’t move markets.

Instead, focus today and this week will be on earnings and specifically the commentary from CEOs on the consumer and economy.  Some reports we’re watching today include: NXPI ($2.29), VZ ($1.18), DPZ ($3.93), CLF ($-0.67), CCK ($1.86).

 

Why Wednesday’s Bond Volatility Is Important (Trump vs. Powell)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Wednesday’s Bond Volatility Is Important (Trump vs. Powell)

Futures are slightly higher following more dovish commentary from a Fed member and generally “fine” earnings.

Fed Governor Waller called for a 25-bps cut at the July FOMC meeting in a speech overnight, although markets assume he’s now jockeying to be the next Fed Chair and a rate cut this month remains very unlikely.

Today the economic calendar is mostly quiet (there are only two reports, Housing Starts (1.300M) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 60.7) and neither should move markets) but there are some notable earnings to watch including, in order of importance:  AXP ($3.86), SCHW ($1.09), MMM ($2.01), SLB ($0.73), ALLY ($0.78), TFC ($0.92).  In particular, if customer spending and management commentary from AXP is positive, that will further underscore that the consumer remains resilient in this uncertain environment.

 

Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold

The Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold has been met with extremely positive feedback as thought-provoking research.

As a reminder, this report is free for all Sevens Report subscribers and can be accessed on the “My Reports” section of www.sevensreport.com.   

Some subscribers have expressed interest in sharing this with clients, both as a Sevens Report branded publication and as a “White Labeled” version, and that option is available for purchase for a discounted price. 

To learn more about the white labeled version of the Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold Special Report, please click this link.   

What Trump vs. Powell Means for Markets (Three Scenarios)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump vs. Powell Tensions Mean for Markets
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher after a mostly quiet newswires night of news as tech shares catch a bid on the back of solid earnings and optimistic guidance from global chip-making giant TSMC overnight.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% y/y on the headline while the core figure edged up to 2.3%, also as expected.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 233K), Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), the Philly Fed Surve (E: -0.4), Import and Export Prices (E: 0.2% m/m, -0.1% m/m), and the latest Housing Market Index (E: 33) all due to be released.

There are also multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Kugler (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (12:45 p.m. ET), and Cook (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with TSM ($2.37), GE ($1.43), PEP ($2.03), USB ($1.07), ABT ($1.25), NFLX ($7.07), and IBKR ($0.45) all scheduled to release quarterly reports today.

Bottom line, traders will want to see economic data that pushes back on the ideas of stagflation or a hard-landing (two economic worries of late) and hear a more dovish tone from Fed speakers amid more positive earnings news in order for stocks to extend the recent rally to new records.

A New Type of Research Offering

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

Stock futures rallied to fresh all-time highs overnight thanks to news the U.S. government will ease restrictions on chip sales to China, specifically some of NVDA’s more powerful AI-chips as CPI data and big bank earnings loom.

There are a slew of potential market catalysts this morning starting with inflation data as CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) data for June will be released ahead of the bell along with one of the first July economic reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0).

Investors will be looking for data that pushes back on stagflation or hard landing scenarios to keep the stock rally going.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (12:45 p.m. ET), Barkin 1:00 p.m. ET), and Collins (2:45 p.m. ET). The market will be looking for positive economic commentary and/or hints of a potential rate cut this month.

Finally, today also marks the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season with several big banks and other noteworthy U.S. companies reporting results including: JPM ($4.51), C ($1.61), BLK ($10.78), WFC ($1.41), BK ($1.74), STT ($2.36), JBHT ($1.34). The stronger the corporate results, the better as strong earnings growth is priced in for the year ahead with equities trading at current levels.

Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tariffs start to boost inflation this month?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Important inflation and growth updates this week.

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff threats over the weekend.

President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and non-USMCA goods from Mexico starting August 1st, although the modest decline in markets still implies investors think tariff rates will be negotiated lower ahead of the deadline.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Chinese exports, which beat expectations (5.8% vs. (E) 5.0%).

This week is an important one from an economic standpoint as we’ll get important updates on inflation (via CPI & PPI) and growth (via retail sales), but the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today.

On earnings, the Q2 reporting season begins to heat up this week via big bank earnings, although today the only notable report to watch is FAST ($0.28).

Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bitcoin/Crypto Monthly Update

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff increases and escalation in the tensions between the White House and Fed.

President Trump increased tariff rates on non-USMCA goods from Canada to 35% and threatened to increase the baseline tariff on all imports to 15% – 20% (from 10%).

Tensions between the White House and Fed rose on Thursday, as the Office of Management and Budget is now investigating the Federal Reserve building renovation.

Today there are no economic reports so trade headlines will be in focus, including the tariff rates on the EU and Taiwan.  Markets have been impressively resilient this week in the face of potentially dramatic tariff escalation, but if negative trade headlines continue throughout the day, don’t be surprised if this early selloff accelerates because tariff rates are possibly going much, much higher than previously expected.

Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest the latest tariff threats.

Tariff threats from the administration have intensified over the week including the 50% tariff on copper imports and 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, but markets continue to largely ignore them and view it all as a negotiation.

Today focus will be on economic data, trade headlines and earnings.  Starting with the data, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 238K) and markets will want to see continued stability to further support last Friday’s good jobs number (and push back on any slowdown fears).  There are also three Fed speakers today, Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET), Waller (1:15 p.m. ET and Daly (2:30 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

On trade, markets are still waiting for updates on the EU and Taiwan.  A “deal” with the EU would further reduce trade anxiety while a letter would likely (slightly) escalate trade anxiety.

Finally, the Q2 earnings season starts (effectively) today and some reports we’re watching include:  DAL ($2.01), CAG ($0.59), LEVI ($0.14), PSMT ($1.16), WDFC ($1.43).

 

It’s Not Too Late To Send Clients A Quarterly Letter!

If you are behind on your quarterly letter, please let us help!

You can have a quality quarterly letter ready to send to clients by the end of the day! 

Our Q2 ’25 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers last week, complete with compliance backup and citations. We continue to get feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with their clients in this headline driven market!

You can view our Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • July MMT Chart: New S&P 500 Targets to Watch

U.S. equity futures are mostly higher, albeit modestly so while global bond yields are steady as investors continue to digest this week’s latest tariff headlines and broader trade war developments.

Economically, Chinese CPI edged up +0.1% vs. (E) -0.1% y/y in June while PPI fell -3.6% vs. (E) -3.2% y/y last month.

Looking into today’s session, there is one lesser-followed economic report due to be released: Wholesale inventories (E: -0.3%) but the reports shouldn’t materially move markets.

Moving into the afternoon, there are two potential catalysts to watch: A 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (foreign demand for yesterday’s 3-Yr auction was light and more of the same today would put upward pressure on yields and likely weigh on stocks), and the release of the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) which could shed more light on the timeframe for the Fed’s next rate cut.

Bottom line, the economic calendar and Fed speaker circuit both remain light/thin today as has been the case all week which will leave investors primarily focused on very fluid tariff headlines and sentiment towards the broader global trade war. The more progress towards concrete deals, the better for risk assets while any further escalations are likely to further weigh on stocks in thin summer trade.