What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Is the Fed Put in Play?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Updates on Growth (The Stronger the Data, the Better)

Futures are modestly lower mostly on digestion of Friday’s big rally and following a relatively quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there were no new tariff headlines, threats or social media postings over the weekend and if that lasts it would be a near-term positive for markets.

Economically, the only notable number was the Italian HICP (their CPI) which met expectations, rising 1.7% y/y.

Focus will remain on trade headlines but outside of the tariff drama this is an important week of economic data.  Today focus will be on two reports, Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and Empire Manufacturing Index (-1.9).  If both numbers are better than expected they will push back on the idea policy chaos is slowing the actual economy (and help stocks).  However, if they’re weaker then expected, look for economic anxiety to grow (and stocks to drop).

The Numbers Inside This Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Numbers Inside This Pullback
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on positive trade headlines and decreased shutdown risks.

On trade, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said a meeting with Commerce Secretray Lutnick was “positive” and “productive,” creating some tentative trade optimism.

Elsewhere politically, Democrat minority leader Schumer signaled he’d support funding the government, reducing shutdown chances.

Today focus will stay on trade headlines (of course) while the key economic report today is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 63.1).  Stability in that report will be encouraging for investors.  Markets will also be focused on the One-Year Inflation Expectations, which spiked to 4.3% on tariff fears.  Any decline in that number back towards 3.0% (where it was before tariffs) will be a positive.

Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as investors look ahead to trade meetings and data.

Economically, the only notable report was Euro Zone Industrial Production and it slightly missed expectations (0.8% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Politically, focus will be on two events today, the USMCA renegotiation talks between U.S. and Canadian officials and progress on avoiding a government shutdown on Friday.

Outside of trade and politics, today there are two important economic reports:  Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y).  Because of rising stagflation worries, investors will want to see better than expected numbers from both reports, while a jump in jobless claims would increase growth concerns and hotter than expected PPI would raise fears tariffs are boosting inflation (tariff price pressures will show up in PPI before CPI).

MMT Chart: S&P Targets Lowered Amid Ominous Technical Divergence

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March MMT Chart Update: Fundamental Price Targets Lowered
  • An Increasingly Ominous Technical Divergence Has Emerged in the S&P 500

Futures are trading with tentative gains and bonds are little changed after another mostly quiet night of macroeconomic news as investors look ahead to today’s CPI report.

Economically, Japanese PPI fell from 4.2% to 4.0% y/y in February, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3.9% but the release did not meaningfully move markets ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report.

This morning, traders will be keenly focused on inflation data with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) data due to be released ahead of the bell. A “cool” print is the best case scenario for stocks to mount a relief rally after recent losses.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and investors will be watching demand metrics to gauge bond traders reaction to the CPI data in afternoon trade (a healthy, but not too-strong auction outcome would be favorable for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues with ADBE ($4.97) and AEO ($0.50) reporting after the close.

March Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table (March Update)
  • NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations Takeaways

Futures are trading with tentative gains as markets attempt to stabilize from the S&P 500’s ~6% early-March pullback after a mostly quiet night of macroeconomic and geopolitical news.

Economic data was mostly disappointing overnight as Japanese Household Spending fell -4.5% vs. (E) -1.5% m/m in January while the February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell from 102.8 to 100.7 vs. (E) of 101.0, but neither data point is materially moving markets.

Today, we will get one economic report on the labor market: JOLTS (E: 7.5 million), but it is a lagging data point and therefor will only move markets if there is a meaningful deviation from expectations.

Moving into the afternoon, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and if demand is weak (yields move higher) then stocks could come for sale amid hawkish money flows.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy retailer earnings releases due out today that could shed light on consumer spending trends, including: KSS ($0.72), DKS ( $3.49). The better the corporate commentary, the better the prospects of a relief rally taking shape.

What’s Really Pressuring Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Really Pressuring Stocks
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does Policy Chaos Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Focus on Inflation This Week (CPI Wednesday is the Key Report)

Futures are sharply lower following a quiet weekend of actual news, although political commentary did nothing to ease investor concerns about ongoing policy chaos.

President Trump, in a Fox News interview, doubled down on the current policy path and acknowledged the chance of a slowdown and that’s weighing on sentiment.

Economically, German Industrial Production slightly beat estimates but isn’t moving markets (2.0 y/y vs. (E) 1.6%).

Today focus will remain on political headlines but there is one notable economic report, New York Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%), and if they are much higher than expected that will fuel stagflation concerns (and weigh on stocks and possibly bonds).

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Is Europe Finally Ready to Grow?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)

Futures are modestly higher following Thursday’s declines on solid tech earnings and as markets look ahead to today’s jobs report.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 11% pre-market and that’s helping tech bounce.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders badly missed expectations, falling –7.0% vs. (E) -0.9%.

Today the two big scheduled events are the jobs report and Powell’s speech.  For the jobs report expectations are 160K Job-Adds, 4.0% UE Rate, 4.1% Wages y/y.  In-line data will push back hard on stagflation fears and likely fuel a bounce in stocks (as long as there are no negative tariff headlines).

For the Fed, Powell (12:30 p.m. ET) is the most important speaker but we also hear from Williams & Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET) and Kugler (1:00 p.m. ET).  As long as those officials (especially Powell) reinforce that they expect rate cuts, it should help support markets.

Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

Futures are sharply lower on a combination of ongoing trade anxiety and disappointing earnings.

On tariffs, there was no news overnight but despite the one-month exemption of autos, trade uncertainty and volatility remains a major headwind on stocks.

On earnings, MRVL results underwhelmed and tech is getting hit as a result (MRVL is down –15% pre-market).

Focus today will, of course, stay on tariffs and trade and there are some reports suggesting agricultural products could also be exempted from tariffs (if so, that’d be another incremental positive but it won’t cure the policy/trade chaos currently impacting markets).

Economically, there are two notable reports today:  Jobless Claims (E: 244K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.0%) and better than expected numbers in both will help to support stocks.  Finally, there are several Fed speakers today but with so much policy volatility, Fed speak has been rendered relatively unimportant for the time being (the Fed can’t do anything about tariffs).  Speakers today include: Harker (8:45 a.m. ET), Waller (3:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:00 p.m. ET).

 

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Where Do We Stand With Tariffs (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs? (Updated 3/5/25)

Futures are higher amid risk-on global money flows after U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be scaled back as soon as today while the Ukraine-U.S. minerals deal is also seeing progress which is easing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI met estimates at 50.2 while EU PPI jumped up to 1.8% vs. (E) 1.4% in January, rekindling still simmering inflation worries.

This morning is lining up to be a busy one as there are several noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic reports due to be released beginning with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 162K). Then, shortly after the open, both Factory Orders (E: 1.4%), and the February ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0) will be released.

There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and demand for the short-duration securities could shed light on the latest shifts in Fed policy expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable reports due to be released from ANF ($3.48), MRVL ($0.59), and VSCO ($2.30).

Where Is the Trump Put?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Is the Trump Put?
  • Chart – NVDA Violates Support
  • Chart – Atlanta FED GDPNow Collapses to Negative Territory
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest the latest developments in the emerging global trade war.

The Trump administration confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into effect overnight while tariffs on China were increased from 10% to 20%, prompting retaliatory trade policy actions from those nations which added to trade-war uncertainties.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate fell to 6.2% vs. (E) 6.3% which saw global yields rise modestly.

Looking into today’s session, there is one second-tiered economic report to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.9 million) and one Fed speaker in the afternoon: Williams (2:20 p.m. ET).

Additionally, we will get quarterly earnings from more big-name retailers today which could shed further light on consumer spending trends including: TGT ($2.25), BBY ($2.40), JWN ($0.90), and ROST ($1.65).