Bullish Argument

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did the Fed Just Weaken the Bullish Argument?

Futures are slightly lower following a busy night of news, as major tech earnings were mixed while the Trump/Xi summit met widely held expectations.

On earnings, META, MSFT and GOOGL posted mixed results.  GOOGL beat earnings and the stock is up 8% pre-market while META and MSFT slightly underwhelmed.

Geopolitically, the Trump/Xi summit resulted in expected tariff reduction, soybean purchases and rare earth exports but didn’t contain any surprisingly positive breakthroughs.

Today focus will be on earnings with the last of the major tech firms reporting, including AAPL ($1.73), AMZN ($1.58) and, on the consumer spending front, MA ($4.31).

 

Fed Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated FOMC Preview
  • Housing Data Takeaways

Futures are trading at all-time highs ahead of the Fed decision and multiple Mag-7 earnings releases due out after the close as President Trump made optimistic remarks about his three-hour meeting with President Xi tomorrow.

Economically, Australian CPI jumped to 3.2% vs. (E) 3.0%, up 1.1% from Q2’s reading of 2.1%.

Today, there are a few “second-tiered” economic reports due to be released including International Trade in Goods (E: $-90.0B), Wholesale inventories (E: -0.2%), and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%) but their market impact should be limited given the looming Fed decision.

It’s Fed Day with the FOMC Meeting Announcement due to hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Aside from the Fed decision, which could have a material impact on markets today despite the looming Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow, we are getting into peak earnings season with quarterly results due from major U.S. companies including VZ ($1.19), BA (-$2.46), CVS ($1.36), CAT ($4.52), META ($6.61), MSFT ($3.65), GOOGL ($2.26), and CMG ($0.28).

 

FOMC Preview: Is a Dovish Surprise Looming?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – Is a Dovish Surprise Looming?
  • Chart: An End to QT Means More Liquidity, More Stimulus

Futures are flat while most international markets are modestly lower as traders digest the sizeable two-day rally in stocks ahead of the October Fed meeting decision and several Mag-7 earnings releases.

Today, there are a handful of private-sector economic releases to watch including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.9%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -14), and Consumer Confidence (E: 93.4).

With the October FOMC meeting getting underway, expect a growing sense of Fed paralysis in equity markets to begin to take hold, however there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and shake up stocks on an intraday basis.

Earnings season continues to peak this week with notable reports today including SOFI ($0.09), UNH ($2.80), PYPL ($1.19), UPS ($1.31), V ($2.97), BKNG ($96.10), and RCL ($5.67).

Bottom line, positive earnings and upbeat economic data would offer equity market tailwinds today with a Fed rate cut all but a certainty tomorrow, however, the trade war situation remains a “wildcard” risk that could spark risk-off money flows into tomorrows FOMC decision.

 

Why the Crypto ETF Floodgates May Open Soon

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Crypto ETF Floodgates May Open Soon
  • Weekly Market Preview: Fed Decision and the Most Important Week of Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does Data Stay Goldilocks?

Futures are moderately higher on trade optimism following positive comments on U.S./China trade negotiations.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said U.S./China trade talks went “very well” this weekend, reducing fears of additional tariffs and raising hopes for tariff relief.

Economically, German IFO Businesses Expectations were better than estimates (91.6 vs. (E) 89.4).

Today we do get two economic reports, Durable Goods (E: 0.01%) and New Home Sales (E: 710k) and markets will want to see in-line numbers to keep the Goldilocks data trend in place.

Beyond today, this is a potentially important week that contains a Fed decision (possibility of a dovish surprise) but, more importantly, key Tech/AI earnings and markets need to see a dovish Fed and strong AI earnings to keep the rally going.

Some earnings we’re watching today include: KDP ($0.54), CAR ($8.11), and WHR ($1.41).

An Interesting Chart to Show Clients

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Chart to Show Clients

Futures are little changed despite an underwhelming night of earnings and higher oil prices.

Earning overnight were disappointing, as TSLA, IBM and SAP all missed earnings or cut guidance.

Geo-politically, the U.S. sanctioned Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, causing a 5% spike in oil prices.

Today we do get some economic data via the Chicago Fed (E: -0.12) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.06 million).  Neither report is normally a market mover, but given the lack of other data, the reports have the potential to move markets.  Solid readings (so in line with expectations) that show stable growth will be the best case for stocks.

Earnings season continues and after a very strong start last week, results this week have been much more mixed.  Reports we’re watching today include:  INTC ($-0.12), AAL ($-0.27), FCX ($0.41), HON ($2.56),  NEM ($1.29), F ($0.38),and  TMUS ($2.42).

Are Rare Earth Materials the New AI?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Rare Earth Materials the New AI?
  • Precious Metals Update – Is the Gold Rally Over?

Futures are steady this morning amid a mostly quiet macroeconomic backdrop with tech shares lagging after NFLX (-6.5%) and TXN (-7.7%) missed on earnings after the close yesterday.

Economically, U.K. CPI was unchanged at 3.8% vs. (E) 4.0% y/y in September, further easing global inflation worries.

There are no economic reports today and just one Fed official scheduled to speak later in the day: Barr (4:00 p.m. ET).

The Treasury will hold auctions for 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 20-Yr Bonds (1:00 p.m. ET) which could impact fixed income markets and subsequently move equities amid an otherwise mostly quiet day today.

Finally, on the earnings front, we will get quarterly results from GEV ($1.78), T ($0.55), TMO ($5.50), TSLA ($0.41), IBM ($2.43), KMI ($0.28), and CME ($2.63) today with TSLA being in the spotlight as the first Mag-7 member to release earnings this season.

 

Are Negative Trade War Headlines a Risk to the Rally?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Negative Trade Headlines a Risk to the Rally

Futures are modestly lower amid light profit taking after a mostly quiet night of news as traders await more important earnings releases due out this week.

There were no notable economic reports overnight and no material developments on either the U.S.-China trade front or the government shutdown negotiations.

There are no economic reports today, however the Treasury will hold 4-Week, 6-Week, 8-Week, and 4-Month T-Bill auctions between 11:00 and 11:30 a.m. ET. Bill auctions typically do not warrant much attention, but yesterday’s strong short-term Treasury auctions did coincide with a slowdown in the S&P 500’s intraday advance as economic angst seems to be building in the absence of major data recently.

There is one Fed speaker to watch today with next week’s October FOMC meeting coming into view: Waller (9:00 a.m. & 3:30 p.m.) and anything less than the dovish-leaning tone of recent could weigh on stocks.

Finally, earnings season continues with: KO ($0.78), GE ($1.46), LMT ($6.33), MMM ($2.10), NFLX ($6.89), ISRG ($1.99), and COF ($4.20) all due to report today, and investors will want to continue to see net positive surprises on both the top and bottom line to support optimism surrounding strong and resilient corporate financials in H2’25.

 

Should We Really Be Worried About Banks/Credit?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Should We Really Be Worried About Banks/Credit?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Focus Shifts to Earnings (And Tech Earnings Need to Be Strong)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Flash PMIs on Friday the Key Report

Futures are modestly higher on China optimism and as investors look ahead to an important week of earnings.

Chinese GDP beat estimates (1.1% vs. (E) 0.8%) implying that global growth is stable, while a meeting between Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier Lifeng on Friday could lower U.S./China trade tensions.

Politically, there was no substantive progress towards ending the shutdown over the weekend.

Today there is only one economic reading, Leading Indicators (E: 0.01%) but it shouldn’t move markets.

Turning to earnings, there are two notable reports today, CLF ($-0.48) and CCK ($1.98), but the key reports come later this week (NLFX, TSLA and INTC all report this week among other notables).

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are moderately lower mostly on continued concerns about loan quality for U.S. banks, although nothing new happened overnight to specifically pressure stocks.

Economically, the only notable report was EU HICP (their CPI) and it was a bit hot, as Core HICP rose 0.2% vs. (E) 0.1% m/m and 2.4% vs. (E) 2.3% y/y.

Today there are some economic reports, including Housing Starts (1.315M), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.2% m/m, 0.0% m/m) and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).    There is also one Fed speaker, Musalem (12:15 p.m. ET).

However, they are unlikely to move markets.  Instead, focus on credit and loan quality at banks will be the main market driver and any headlines that imply TriColor and First Brands are isolated incidents (which they likely are) will help stocks rebound.

Finally, earnings season rolls on and some reports to watch today include:  SLB ($0.67), AXP ($3.96), STT ($2.62).

 

Are Tri-Color and First Brands “Cockroaches?”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Tricolor and First Brands “Cockroaches?”

Futures are solidly higher following better than expected Taiwan Semiconductor earnings (TSM).

TSM beat earnings and raised guidance, as chip demand is still very strong while the AI cap-ex boom remains in force.

Today there are two notable economic reports, Philly Fed (E: 7.5) and the Housing Market Index (E: 33) along with numerous Fed speakers.  From a data standpoint, given the lack of economic reports lately, solid readings from both reports will be welcomed by investors as it will help reinforce that growth is stable.

Turning to the lineup of Fed speakers today, Waller at 8:00 a.m. ET is likely the only potential market mover because he’s in the running to be the next Fed chair.  Other Fed speakers today include Barkin (8:00 a.m., 12:45 p.m. & 4:30 p.m. ET), Miran (9:00 a.m. & 4:15 p.m. ET), Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (6:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to gain momentum and some reports we’ll be watching today include:  TSM ($2.59), SCHW ($1.23), BK ($1.76), USB ($1.11), TRV ($5.88), IBKR ($0.50), CSX (0.42).