Technical update, economic data recap, EIA analysis and oil update and more. Today, there is one important economic report to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.2%) and two Fed speakers: Clarida before the open (8:30 a.m. ET) and Evans just before lunch (11:30 a.m. ET), otherwise, focus will be on tech shares today as if the bad earnings from NVDA weigh on the sector more broadly, then stocks will have a hard time extending yesterday’s bounce.
Will Politics Add to the Volatility? Today there is a lot of important economic data to watch (in order of importance): Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 20.0), Philly Fed (E: 20.0) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K). There are also multiple Fed speakers today including Quarles (10:00 a.m. ET), Powell (11:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (3:00 p.m. ET) but I don’t expect any of them, including Powell, to reveal anything new.
Is Inflation Peaking Already? Futures are flat while overseas markets were mostly lower o/n after yesterday’s huge drop in oil weighed on risk sentiment, global data was mixed, and EU political tensions continued, today is the busiest day of the week as far as catalysts go and more.
Equity Risk Premium: A Disconcerting Statistic, futures are bouncing modestly after yesterday’s steep equity selloff, most of the more notable catalysts this week will come tomorrow (U.S. CPI, Chinese economic data, Powell speaks, earnings, etc.) but that doesn’t mean that downward momentum that began yesterday can’t continue so support in the S&P between 2705 and 2720 will be important to watch today and more.
Four Keys to a Market Bottom Updated, futures are slightly lower, today should be a generally quiet day given 1) the Veteran’s Day holiday (banks and bond markets are closed), and 2) There are no notable economic reports or earnings today, so, our focus today will be on the dollar, which is now at fresh 2018 highs. If it continues to grind higher that will likely pressure stocks today (a suddenly stronger dollar is not what this market needs right now) and more.
Why The October Sell Off Was Different, valuation Update (the market is fairly valued here), futures are moderately lower, today focus will be on inflation via PPI (E: 0.2%) and it needs to remain “Goldilocks” so as to not put more downward pressure on stocks. We also have several Fed speakers (Williams (8:30 a.m. ET), Harker (8:50 a.m. ET), Quarles (9:00 a.m. ET)) although the next big Fed event will be Fed Chair Powell speaking on Tuesday and more.
Election Takeaways (Short and Longer Term Implications), today focus will be on the FOMC Decision (2:00 p.m. EST, E: No Change to Rates) and the key will be whether the Fed mentions recent stock market volatility. If they do, that will be taken as a slightly dovish shift, and it likely will help extend today’s early rally, as was widely expected, Democrats gained a small majority in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate and more.
Today, trader focus is going to primarily be on the mid-term elections although results will not come in until after the close, a realtime trade-war indicator to watch, futures are slightly lower with EU markets this morning on renewed political tensions despite upbeat economic data o/n while US focus turns ahead to the mid-terms and more
“Growth Pillar” Remains Solid, but Volatility Not Necessarily Over, US stock futures are little changed this morning, on the charts, 2705 will be a key support level to watch in the S&P today, looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch in the US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 59.4) and there are two Fed speakers: Williams ahead of the bell (8:30 a.m. ET), and Kaplan later this evening (7:30 p.m. ET). and more.
Rebound Update, futures are decidedly higher this morning after Chinese shares led global equities higher overnight thanks to continued optimism about a US-China trade deal, once earnings and economic data are digested, focus will likely return to momentum, technicals, and any incremental news on trade and more.