Entries by Tom Essaye

Election Takeaways & FOMC Preview

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Election Takeaways (Short and Longer Term Implications), today focus will be on the FOMC Decision (2:00 p.m. EST, E: No Change to Rates) and the key will be whether the Fed mentions recent stock market volatility.  If they do, that will be taken as a slightly dovish shift, and it likely will help extend today’s early rally, as was widely expected, Democrats gained a small majority in the House of Representatives, while the Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate and more.

Trade War Indicator

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Today, trader focus is going to primarily be on the mid-term elections although results will not come in until after the close, a realtime trade-war indicator to watch, futures are slightly lower with EU markets this morning on renewed political tensions despite upbeat economic data o/n while US focus turns ahead to the mid-terms and more

Growth and Volatility

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“Growth Pillar” Remains Solid, but Volatility Not Necessarily Over, US stock futures are little changed this morning, on the charts, 2705 will be a key support level to watch in the S&P today, looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch in the US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 59.4) and there are two Fed speakers: Williams ahead of the bell (8:30 a.m. ET), and Kaplan later this evening (7:30 p.m. ET). and more.

Rebound Update

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Rebound Update, futures are decidedly higher this morning after Chinese shares led global equities higher overnight thanks to continued optimism about a US-China trade deal, once earnings and economic data are digested, focus will likely return to momentum, technicals, and any incremental news on trade and more.

Jobs Report Preview

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Jobs Report Preview, futures are modestly higher on continued momentum from the Wednesday rally, AAPL reports today but after the bell, so the focus of the regular session today will be on economic data and more.

Was Yesterday an “All Clear?”

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Dusting Off An Old Leading Indicator for Recessions. Today focus will remain on earnings. GM ($1.26) is the highlight but if the broad number of results are “ok” that should continue to help sentiment, Futures are extending Tuesday’s rally thanks to decent overnight earnings and despite universally disappointing economic data and more.

Valuation Update: Good, Bad, and Ugly

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Valuation Update: Good/Bad/Ugly Scenario Analysis, futures are slightly higher this morning and Asian stocks traded relatively well overnight, for the S&P to gain material upside momentum, we will need to see a strong run to and through 2700 and then for that area to hold, otherwise an early gain followed by a pullback (like yesterday) will be more likely and the path of least resistance still lower for the very near term and more.

Updated Market Outlook (Fundamental & Technical)

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Futures are enjoying a modest oversold bounce following Friday’s drop, the weekend was generally quiet although sentiment towards Italy is a bit better after S&P did not downgrade the country’s credit rating, there are no notable earnings reports today so focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 1.9% y/y) which is contained in the Personal Income and Outlays Report. This market does not need suddenly “hot” inflation numbers that will make the Fed more hawkish. and more.

Bounce or Bottom? Updated Market Technicals

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Bounce or Bottom? Futures and global markets are sharply lower and have given back most of Thursday’s gains, AMZN and GOOGL both posted disappointing earnings, markets look like they are going to open sharply lower and more.

What If It Is Peak Earnings? (Market Outlook)

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What If It Is Peak Earnings? (It Hasn’t Been That Bad in the Past), today there are actually multiple macro events including an ECB Decision (No Change is expected to rates or QE but we’ll be watching to see if Draghi notes equity market volatility), Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.0%) plus there are two Fed speakers: Clarida (12:15 p.m. ET), Mester (7:00 p.m. ET).