Three Factors Supporting This Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Factors Supporting This Market
  • Weekly Economic Outlook – All Eyes on Inflation Data

Markets are trading with a tentative risk-on/”war-off” tone with U.S. equity futures modestly higher while oil prices are well off overnight highs thanks to hopes a last-minute ceasefire deal with be struck between the U.S. and Iran.

Geopolitically, President Trump reiterated threats to strike Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure if a ceasefire deal is not struck by an 8 p.m. ET deadline Tuesday.

However, Axios reported progress towards a 45-day ceasefire deal overnight which is bolstering hopes for a last-minute U.S.-Iran deal after military strikes persisted over the weekend with multiple U.S. aircraft notably being shot down by Iran.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight.

Today, geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus and any signs that a ceasefire deal is likely to be agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran has the potential to spark a continued relief rally, extending last week’s gains in equity markets.

There is however, one notable domestic economic report to watch, the ISM Services PMI (E: 55.4) and one Fed official scheduled to speak: Barr (9:10 a.m. ET) which traders will keep tabs on as they return to the desk after the long Easter weekend.

 

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Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are sharply lower on surging oil prices (up 7%) as President Trump pushed back on near term deescalation hopes in the U.S./Iran war during his prime time address.

President Trump reiterated a limited U.S. operation (lasting another few weeks) but warned of further near term escalation and gave no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing near term ceasefire hopes and sending oil higher.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics (anything that increases the chances of a U.S. ground assault will further boost oil and be incrementally negative for stocks) but we do get two important labor reports via Jobless Claims (E: 213K) and Challenger layoffs.  Given geo-political uncertainty, the stronger the labor market data, the better as it will push back on stagflation concerns (although the data won’t stop the selloff without positive geopolitical news).

There is also one Fed speaker today, Logan (10:15 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

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All the market cares about is ‘no more further escalation

The VIX Falls Below 30. Latest Iran Headlines Calm the Market’s Fear Gauge for Now.

“All the market cares about is ‘no more further escalation,'” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “As things are now, we can live with. The fear is it continues to escalate, and now we’ve got attacks all over the place in the Persian Gulf. And this appears to take the teeth out of that—although it is sort of impossible to figure out what the ‘truth’ is going to be in a few hours.”

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Why Stocks Surged Yesterday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Stocks Surge?
  • Housing Market Data Takeaways

Global equities surged overnight, tracking the big gains in U.S. stocks yesterday as both Trump and his Iranian counterpart signaled willingness to imminently end the war in the Middle East over the last 24 hours.

Economically, China’s Mfg PMI fell to 50.8 vs. (E) 52.5 while the Eurozone Mfg PMI firmed to 51.6 vs. (E) 51.4. Meanwhile, EU Unemployment rose to 6.2% vs. (E) 6.1%, however traders remain keenly focused on geopolitics and the data did not materially move markets overnight.

Today, the fresh geopolitical deescalation will remain the market’s primary focus, however there are several important U.S. economic reports due to be released including the ADP Employment Report (E: 40K), the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 52.3), and the (delayed) February Retail Sales data (E: 0.4%).

Investors will be looking for Goldilocks data pointing to ongoing resilience but not data that is so strong it deters the Fed from considering 2026 rate cuts.

Finally, the Treasury will hold a 4-M Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET, which will shed light on rate traders’ outlook for Fed policy rates through the summer, and there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak ahead of the bell: Musalem (9:05 a.m. ET) and Barr (9:10 a.m. ET).

Regarding the Treasury auction and “Fed speak” the more dovish the reaction in Treasuries (yields lower), the better for stocks today.

 

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