Jobs Day (A Critical Day for Markets)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)
  • December Retail Sales Takeaways – Consumer Spending Sputtered into Yearend

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher with focus on the delayed release of today’s January jobs report following a quiet night of news.

Economically, Chinese CPI cooled to 0.2% Y/Y vs. (E) 0.4% in January, down from 0.8% Y/Y in December, a favorably “cool” inflation print but one that is not materially impacting markets ahead of the BLS report today.

This morning, traders will be keenly focused on the tardy release of the January BLS Employment Situation Report: (E: +67K Job Adds, 4.4% UE Rate, +3.6% Wage Growth). After a swath of soft labor market reports last week, markets will want to see a solid/”Goldilocks” dataset today to ease worries about a sudden downturn in the labor market while a “too-hot” release could spark hawkish money flows and subsequent volatility in equity markets.

Looking beyond the jobs report, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that will offer a good read on the bond market’s interpretation of the latest BLS report. Solid demand will shore up expectations for an accommodative Fed stance in 2026 and support risk assets today.

On the Fed front, there are three officials speaking today: Schmid (10:10 a.m. ET), Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET), and Hammack (4:00 p.m. ET), and markets will be looking for clues as to when the FOMC will cut rates next amid the fresh context of today’s jobs numbers.

Finally, earnings season continues with SHOP ($0.41), MCD ($3.04), TMUS ($2.03), APP ($2.89), CSCO ($0.82), and ALB ($-0.40) all due to report Q4 results today.

 

Sevens Report: U.S.-Iran Talks Leave Geopolitical Risks Elevated

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Tyler Richey says stalled negotiations keep markets on edge despite open channels.

Oil markets are on edge over elevated risks of a U.S. military strike against Iran this weekend

Geopolitical risks remain largely unchanged following the latest U.S.-Iran discussions, according to Sevens Report Research. Co-editor Tyler Richey said the talks failed to deliver progress on the core issues facing both sides, leaving tensions at roughly the same level as before the meetings.

Richey noted that while the lack of breakthroughs is disappointing, the fact that negotiations did not collapse entirely still matters for markets. Open communication channels reduce the odds of an immediate escalation, but they do not eliminate near-term risks.

With tensions still elevated, Richey said the possibility of military action cannot be dismissed, particularly over a short time horizon. That uncertainty helps explain why many traders are reluctant to hold short positions heading into the weekend, when headline risk is highest.

He added that newly announced sanctions are best viewed as incremental pressure designed to accelerate negotiations rather than a signal of imminent conflict. For now, Sevens Report believes geopolitical uncertainty will remain a background risk factor rather than a dominant market driver unless energy supplies are directly threatened.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on February 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report: 10-Year Yield Remains ‘Neutral’ for Stocks

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Tom Essaye says the 4.20% range keeps markets stable — for now.

10-Treasury yield rises, but remains in range seen as ‘neutral’ for stocks

Treasury yields were rising Monday morning, with the rate on the 10-year note reversing its decline from last week but still trading in a range that Sevens Report Research called “neutral” for the stock market.

“The 10-year Treasury yield has been well behaved through this recent stock market volatility and in the 4.20% range it remains neutral for markets generally speaking,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a note Monday. “That needs to continue, because a sudden plunge below 4.00% would signal growth concerns, while a jump above 4.50% would imply rising inflation risks and both would add incremental headwinds on stocks (and possibly bonds).”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on February 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview: Why Markets Need a Solid Number

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview: Why Markets Need a Solid Number

U.S. stock futures are little changed as the ~2.5% rally off last week’s lows is digested ahead of key economic data.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dipped -0.2 points to 99.3 vs. (E) 99.8 in January.

Focus today will turn back to economic data via Retail Sales (E: 0.4%).  Put simply, consumer spending is the engine of growth for the U.S. economy and a solid retail sales number will reinforce the currently stock-positive Goldilocks economy.

In addition to data, we do get two Fed speakers today, Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET) and Logan (1:00 p.m. ET) but they are unlikely to move markets.

Finally, earnings season rolls on and some notable reports today include: KO ($0.56), SPOT ($2.95), CVS ($0.99), HOOD ($0.63), F ($0.17), LYFT ($0.13).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In Barron’s – A Problem For The Nasdaq and S&P 500

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If AI blows up large market sectors, that won’t be good for the S&P 500

Review & Preview: Utilities Are the New Bitcoin

“If AI begins to make entire, large sectors of tech no longer needed, that is a problem for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 and that loss of earnings could offset AI efficiency gains in the short and medium term,” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report. “If AI blows up large market sectors, that won’t be good for the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on February 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted In Bloomberg

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Economic data has been almost perfectly Goldilocks

S&P 500 Closes Near Record as Tech Keeps Rallying: Markets Wrap

“Economic data has been almost perfectly Goldilocks since the government re-opened in late November and that needs to continue to help stocks weather rising AI skepticism,” according to Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on February 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Can the Market Hold Up Despite Tech Weakness?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Market Hold Up Despite Tech Weakness?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Tech (and especially software) stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: An Important Week for Growth and Inflation

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest Friday’s big rally following a generally quiet weekend of news.

Politically, Japan’s LDP party won a landslide victory, increasing stimulus expectations. But, positively, the yen and Japanese government bonds are stable as the results largely met expectations.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

This week is a busy and important one from an economic data standpoint but it starts quietly, as there are no notable economic reports today.

So, focus will be on the tech sector and if it can extend Friday’s rebound (the SaaS names like WDAY, CRM, NOW, remain the key to tech stabilizing in the near term).

On the Fed front, there are two speakers today, Bostic (10:50 a.m. ET) and Waller (3:15 p.m. ET) and some earnings (CLF ($-0.62), APO ($1.91), ON ($0.62)) but barring any surprises, they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Making Sense of Liquidity, Volatility and the S&P 500

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Making Sense of Liquidity, Volatility and the S&P 500

Futures are moderately higher as markets try to bounce following a decent night of earnings.

AMZN (down –7% pre-market) earnings underwhelmed but most of the other reports overnight were solid, prompting traders to buy the dip overnight.

Economically, German Industrial Production missed estimates, falling –1.9% vs. (E) -0.3%.

The jobs report scheduled today has been delayed till Wednesday thanks to the government shutdown, so the economic calendar today only contains Consumer Sentiment (E: 55.5), Consumer Credit (E: $8.4B) and one Fed speaker, Jefferson (12:00 p.m. ET).  Barring any major surprises, none of those events should move markets.

So, the performance of tech is likely to determine if this early bounce in the broader market can hold.  If tech stocks (especially software stocks) can hold early gains and add to them, then we could see a solid bounce across markets.  However, if they roll over shortly after the open, brace for another potentially ugly day.

 

Why Tech Declined Again

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Tech Declined Again
  • New and Notable ETFs

Futures are little changed despite more mixed tech earnings.

GOOGL reported solid results but slightly underwhelming guidance while QCOM outright disappointed and both stocks are lower as tech sentiment remains uncertain.

Today the calendar is busy with a Bank of England Rate Decision (E: No Change) and ECB Rate Decision (E: No Change) before the open.

Economically, we have two labor reports via Jobless Claims (E: 212K) and JOLTS (E: 7.25M) and they key here is stability (meaning no substantial deterioration).  There is also one Fed speaker, Bostic (10:50 a.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues and the key report today is AMZN ($1.98) and the market could really use a strong report this afternoon.  Other notable reports include: COP ($1.08), BMY ($1.15), CMI ($5.20), CI ($7.87),   RBLX ($-0.49).

 

Tom Essaye Discusses SpaceX and xAI Merger With Yahoo Finance

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Tom Essaye Discusses SpaceX and xAI Merger With Yahoo Finance

Why a SpaceX, xAI deal ‘makes sense’

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk is in talks to combine SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) with xAI (XAAI.PVT), according to reports. Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré weighs in on the reporting, while Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye explains why he thinks a deal “makes sense.”

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on February 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.