September Bitcoin Update and Outlook
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Archive for month: September, 2025
How ORCL Earnings Explain the Opportunities and Risks in AI
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- How ORCL Earnings Explain the Opportunities and Risks in AI
Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet night of news as investors digested the better than expected PPI report and looked ahead to today’s all-important CPI.
Economically, the only notable number was Japanese PPI which was better than expected, rising 2.7% y/y vs. (E ) 2.8% y/y. Japanese stocks rallied 1% in response.
Today brings the highlight of the week, CPI, and expectations are as follows: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y. A better-than-expected headline will solidify rate cut expectations and push back on stagflation concerns and that should be a solid market positive. A “hot” number, however, will put three rate cuts before year-end in doubt and almost certainly pressure stocks.
Other events today include an ECB Rate Decision (E: No Changed), Jobless Claims (E: 234K) and some notable earnings reports: KR ($1.00), ADBE ($4.21), RH ($3.20).
Understanding Where the “Bubble” Is in AI
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Understanding Where the “Bubble” Is in AI
- Weekly Market Preview: Does the Fed Start a New Rate Cutting Cycle?
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed is Key, but There’s Important Growth Data This Week, Too
Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend and despite negative tech news and economic data from China.
China declared that NVDA had broken anti-monopoly news, escalating existing tech tensions between China and the U.S. (although this move isn’t a total surprise).
Economically, Chinese data underwhelmed as Retail Sales rose 3.4% vs. (E) 3.8% while Industrial Production gained 5.2% vs. (E) 5.6%.
Focus today will be on the first economic reading of September, the Empire Manufacturing Index (4.3) and markets will want to see stability to further push back on slowdown concerns.
Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- MMT Levels S&P 500 Chart – September Update
Futures are solidly higher this morning thanks to strong tech earnings as traders await key U.S. inflation data.
ORCL shares are surging 30%+ in the pre-market as a measure of future revenue jumped $455B or 359% Y/Y in Q2 thanks to new AI-related cloud contracts.
Economically, Chinese CPI fell -0.4% vs. (E) -0.2% which is helping ease worries about a global resurgence in price pressures due to the trade war.
Today, trader focus will be on inflation data early with the August PPI report due out ahead of the bell (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y).
After the open, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will want to see ongoing signs of strong demand for Treasuries to shore up increasingly dovish Fed expectations.
Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there is one notable company reporting quarterly results today: CHWY ($0.14).
Sevens Report: U.S. Labor Market Stable, But Cracks Emerging
/in Investing, Media/by Customer ServiceThresholds in claims and unemployment could trigger sharp equity declines
What does a soft jobs market mean for markets?
Sevens Report said U.S. labor conditions remain broadly stable despite recent weak data, citing jobless claims below 250,000, continued positive payrolls, and JOLTS near 7 million.
The firm warned, however, that momentum is fading: hiring is slowing even as layoffs remain limited. Key thresholds include jobless claims above 260,000, a four-week average above 300,000, unemployment over 4.5%, and JOLTS falling under 6.5 million. Each would signal real deterioration.
On market impact, Sevens cautioned that a sharp labor downturn could drive a 15%–30% equity drop, with the S&P 500 potentially sliding 500–700 points initially. Defensive sectors such as staples, utilities, and healthcare would likely outperform, alongside lower-volatility ETFs and mega-cap tech if the AI trade holds.
“Bottom line, the labor market is not bad; however, it is losing momentum and this is something we need to watch carefully,” the report said.
Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on September 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.
If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.
To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.
Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.
September Market Multiple Table Update
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Multiple Table Update – What’s Changed Since August?
Futures are slightly higher while overseas equity markets were mixed overnight amid quiet newswires as the global bond rally stalls and investor focus turns to inflation data due later in the week.
Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8 vs. (E) 100.5 in August.
There are no additional economic reports in the U.S. today, and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
The Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and both have the potential to impact fixed income markets which could reverberate through equity markets (the stronger the demand, the better).
Finally some late season earnings to watch include: SAIL ($0.04), ORCL ($1.15), GME ($0.19), SNPS ($2.76), AVAV ($0.34), however, with the PPI and CPI reports due out tomorrow and Thursday, respectively, markets will more than likely remain quiet today.
What Does A Bad Labor Market Look Like and What Does It Mean for Markets?
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- What Does A Bad Labor Market Look Like and What Does It Mean for Markets?
- Weekly Market Preview: Do Stagflation Fears Rise Further?
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: CPI on Wednesday the Key Report This Week
Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s post-jobs report declines, as investors look ahead to key inflation data this week.
Economically, data was mixed as Chinese and German exports (4.4% vs. (E) 5.5% and –0.6% vs. (E) 0.1% respectively) missed estimates, but German Industrial Production beat expectations (1.3% vs. (E ) 1.0%).
Geopolitically, Japanese stocks rallied hard (more than 1%) as PM Ishiba resigned (although it wasn’t a surprise).
This will be another important week because the PPI and CPI reports (Tuesday and Wednesday respectively) will either increase stagflation concerns (negative for stocks/bonds) or further pushback on them (positive for stocks and bonds). But, today should be mostly quiet as there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers.
Tom Essaye: Jobs Report Needs Stronger Beat to Derail Fed Rate-Cut Hopes
/in Investing, Media/by Customer ServiceDifferent payroll scenarios could spark sharp swings in stocks and yields
It will take a doozy of a jobs report to derail investor expectations for a September rate cut
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said it would take a much stronger payrolls beat to derail rate-cut expectations and pressure equities.
He outlined several scenarios:
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Best case: Payrolls rise around 150,000 with steady unemployment and tame wage growth. This would ease growth worries while keeping a September cut in play.
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Hot surprise: Payrolls of 250,000+ and unemployment at 4% or below could spark a 1%+ S&P 500 drop and a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields.
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Weak reading: Payrolls below 25,000 with unemployment at 4.4% could trigger a short-term rally on “bad-is-good” rate-cut optimism, but Essaye warned it would ultimately weigh on stocks as growth fears mount.
“A bounce in the S&P 500 initially shouldn’t be a total surprise, but beyond the short term this outcome would not be positive,” Essaye wrote.
Also, click here to view the full Market Watch article published in Morningstar on September 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.
If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.
To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.
Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.
Jobs Day
/in Daily Report, Investing/by Tom EssayeWhat’s in Today’s Report:
- Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview
Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and following solid tech earnings overnight.
Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) beat estimates and offered bullish guidance and the stock is up 9% pre-market and that’s helping to lift futures.
Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates, felling –2.9% vs. (E) 0.5%.
Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: E: 77K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate, 3.8% Wage Growth. Any job adds number in the mid to low 100k range would be ideal for stocks as it would keep rate cut expectations high but also signal a stable labor market. Conversely, if job adds drop close to zero (or even go negative even with revisions) it’ll increase concerns the labor market is cooling, boost slowdown fears and likely hit stocks.
Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey: AI Stock Stumble Signals Bearish Exhaustion
/in Investing, Media/by Customer ServiceMega-cap tech weakness poses broader risks to equity markets
AI stock boom starts to stumble as investors increase bets against sector
A recent stumble in AI-related stocks “highlights some degree of bearish exhaustion in the underlying AI narrative,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.
“There are signs the market is turning on AI stocks,” Richey warned, adding that a meaningful and lasting rethinking by investors could pose significant risks for the broader equity market. The concern stems from the heavy concentration of mega-cap tech stocks such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta within the S&P 500 and other major indexes.
“This could be extremely detrimental to even the most vanilla index strategies,” Richey said. With a record amount of U.S. personal wealth tied to equities, a major AI-driven drawdown could create a negative wealth effect, fueling a bear market in stocks and risk assets while pushing investors toward safe havens amid a weakening economy.
Also, click here to view the full article published in S&P Global on September 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.
If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.
To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.
Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.