Additionally, sentiment is positive as vaccinations in the U.S. and around the world continue. On Monday, the Dow closed with an over 374 point gain or 1.13%. Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, stated that “futures are modestly higher on momentum from…” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following mixed economic data that showed higher inflation and underwhelming growth.
Inflation stats could be set to rise as Chinese PPI surged 4.4% vs. (E) 1.7%, and this could be the first of several higher than expected global inflation readings.
Economically, German Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.6% vs. (E) 1.5%) but the reading isn’t moving markets.
Today the key number is the Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y). Markets are expecting an uptick in inflation metrics so a slightly hot number shouldn’t move markets too much, although a much stronger than expected PPI reading will likely send the 10 year yield higher and that would be a headwind on stocks. There is also one Fed speaker, Kaplan (10:00 & 12:00 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.
“Normally it’s very hard for homeless and transitional people to get a job. But now the pandemic has made it even worse because unemployment levels…” said Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Research president and financial expert. Click here to watch the full video.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher following some apparent progress in infrastructure negotiations.
President Biden signaled he is open to a 25% corporate tax (down from the desired 28%) and that reduction increases the chances infrastructure ultimately gets passed.
Economic data was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders and the UK Construction PMI both beat estimates.
Today the focus will be on economic data, specifically Jobless Claims (E: 680K) and on Fed speak. Broadly, markets will look for Fed officials to confirm what the minutes showed, that despite recent strong economic data, the Fed isn’t considering tapering yet. Fed speakers today include, in order or importance, Powell (12:00 p.m. ET), Bullard (11:00 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (2:00 p.m. ET).
Bottom line, if we get a solid jobless claims number and dovish commentary from Powell, expect a continued grind higher in stocks.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. equity futures are little change this morning while international markets were mixed in mostly quiet trade overnight.
Economically, the Eurozone’s Final PMI Composite Index came in at 53.2 vs. (E) 52.5 in March, the latest sign that economic growth is accelerating globally.
Looking into today’s U.S. session, there is just one economic report to watch: International Trade Balance (E: -$70.4B) ahead of the bell while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak over the course of the day: Evans (9:00 a.m. ET), Kaplan (11:00 a.m. ET), Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET), and Daly (1:00 p.m. ET).
The March FOMC Meeting Minutes will also be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and it will be important that both today’s Fed speakers, as well as the Minutes show the FOMC is acknowledging the recent rise in rates but remains ultra-accommodative. Any hawkish hints could cause yields to spike and stocks to give back some of the week-to-date gains.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are modestly lower this morning following a quiet night of news as yesterday’s strong rally in U.S. equities is digested while international markets were mostly higher overnight.
Economically, China’s PMI Composite Index rose 1.4 points to 53.1 in March while the Eurozone Unemployment Rate edged up to 8.3% vs. (E) 8.1% in February, however neither report is materially moving markets this morning.
Today, there is just one economic report to watch: February JOLTS (E: 6.850M) and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
With limited catalysts on the calendar today, traders are most likely to be focused on coronavirus case trends and lockdown measures (both of which have been quietly on the rise lately) as well as bond markets.
Negative COVID headlines could result in some profit taking following yesterday’s big gains and any signs of another disorderly rise in bond yields given the firming economic growth expectations could also weigh on stocks, namely tech shares.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Friday’s strong (but not too strong) jobs report.
Friday’s jobs report handily beat estimates (916k vs. (E) 660k) but the unemployment rate remained above 6% and wages were soft, so the number didn’t spike Treasury yields and futures rose Friday after the release.
There was no notable economic data or political news over the weekend and many foreign markets are closed for Easter Monday.
Today the key economic report is the ISM Services PMI (E: 58.6) and markets will want to see a strong number showing a continued rebound in the service sector. With many foreign markets closed, trading should be otherwise quiet but the 10 year yield is still key. It digested Friday’s strong jobs report well, but if we see a rally today towards 1.80%, that will be a headwind on stocks.
