Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Yahoo Finance on October 22, 2018
Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye quoted in Yahoo Finance on October 22, 2018. Watch the full video here.
Archive for month: October, 2018
Technical Update
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Market Technical Update (Three Support Levels for the S&P 500 and a Line in the Sand for the VIX)
Futures are slightly higher thanks to a rally in Asian markets following mixed Chinese economic data.
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (5.4% vs. (E) 5.3%) and Retail Sales (9.2% vs. (E) 9.1%) beat estimates, while GDP (6.5% vs. (E) 6.6%) and Industrial Production (5.8% vs. (E) 6.0%) missed. But, commentary from Chinese officials raised hopes of more economic stimulus and Chinese markets rallied more than 1%.
Today there is one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 5.30M) and two Fed speakers: Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET) and Kaplan (12:45 p.m. ET), but focus will remain on earnings (which were “ok” overnight and this morning as AXP, PYPL and HON beat) and Italy. If there’s further deterioration in the Italy/EU situation, stocks will come under pressure once again.
An Overlooked (But Important) Earnings Report
What’s in Today’s Report:
- An Overlooked (But Important) Earnings Report
- EIA Analysis & Oil Update
Futures are modestly lower thanks to disappointing economic data and ahead of a busy day of earnings.
Economically, Japanese exports missed estimates (-1.2% vs. (E) 2.0%) as did U.K. retail sales (-0.8% vs. (E) 0.3%).
There were no new political or geo-political events overnight.
Today will be a busy day as we get an important economic report, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: 20.0) and two Fed speakers (Bullard (9:00 a.m. ET), Quarles (12:15 p.m. ET)) who could add to the growing “hawkish” narrative.
But, the real key to trading today will be earnings as markets need more proof that overseas revenues aren’t at risk, and margins aren’t compressing. If that’s the case, then stocks can continue the rebound. Some reports we’ll be watching include: PM ($1.27), AXP ($1.78), BX ($0.73).
Buy the Dip or Fade the Bounce?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Buy the Dip or Fade the Bounce?
US stock futures are down roughly 10 points this morning as yesterday’s big rally and notable post-market gains thanks to strong NFLX earnings are digested and investors look ahead to the Fed Minutes today.
Economically, EU HICP (their CPI equivalent) was in-line with expectations at 2.1% yoy but the core figure was soft, slipping to 0.9% from 1.0% which is mildly dovish for ECB policy outlook.
Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report due out: Housing Starts (E: 1.221M) which will leave investors primarily focused on the FOMC Minutes due out at 2:00 p.m. ET. Earnings season takes a breather today as there are no major releases.
On that note, the huge beat by NFLX after the close yesterday should help tech shares continue to trade well this morning which could see this rebound extend higher into the Fed release this afternoon.
What’s Wrong With Bank Stocks?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- What’s Wrong With Bank Stocks?
- Monday’s Economic Data Analysis
- Natural Gas Fundamental Update
Futures are bouncing modestly this morning after international markets were mixed overnight as the recent volatility continues to be digested and focus turns to earnings.
Economically, Chinese inflation data met expectations overnight however the German ZEW Survey pretty badly missed expectations showing a sharp drop in confidence among financial professionals.
There is no shortage of potential catalysts today between economic data, earnings and politics/trade.
Economic releases to watch: Industrial Production (E: 0.2%), Housing Market Index (E: 67), and August JOLTS data (E: 6.905M) are all due out within 30 mins of the open.
Notable companies releasing earnings today include: GS ($5.42) and MS ($1.00) ahead of the open and later NFLX ($0.68) and IBM ($3.40) after the market close.
Lastly, traders and investors are showing more interest than normal in the US Treasury’s foreign exchange report as it may shed light on Chinese currency policies and if any manipulation violations were discovered which would again elevate tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Tom Essaye on The Wall Street Journal – His Take on U.S. Stocks Rebounding, October 12, 2018
U.S. Stocks Rebound After Two-Day Rout
“If next week’s data comes in firm and shows us that this economy isn’t losing momentum, then that will likely provide a big confidence boost to stocks, and could help support a rebound,” said Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report.
Read the full article here.
Updated Market Outlook Post Pullback
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Putting the Pullback In Context (We’ve Seen Something Similar Twice This Year)
- Weekly Market Preview (All About Earnings and Data)
- Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Market Needs a Confidence Boost)
Futures are moderately lower following a generally quiet weekend, as markets digest Friday’s bounce.
Nothing outright negative occurred over the weekend to cause the resumption of selling. But, there was no improvement in any macro headwinds either and as such markets are digesting Friday’s gains.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Today focus will turn towards economic data and we get two important reports: Retail Sales (E: 0.6%) and Oct. Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: 19.3). Strong readings will give the market a needed boost of confidence as they’ll remind investors the economic remains strong.
On the earnings front, activity picks up starting tomorrow but there are two notable reports today: BAC (E: $0.62), SCHW (E: $0.64).
Tyler Richey on Barrons, October 12, 2018
Winter Is Coming and Natural Gas Supplies Are Already Short
Supplies in storage “have fallen out of the five-year maximum-minimum range as stockpiles did not build as fast as most analysts had expected this summer,” says Tyler Richey, co-editor of commodity research provider of Sevens Report. “The last time inventories tested the lower end of that five-year range was at the beginning of the year, when futures spiked to a more than one-year high.”
Read the full article from Barrons here
Tyler Richey’s take on Natural Gas Supplies on MarketWatch, October 12, 2018
Natural-gas supplies may come up short this winter
Tyler Richey, co-editor of commodity research provider for Sevens Report on MarketWatch. His take on this topic, “Supplies in storage “have fallen out of the five-year maximum-minimum range as stockpiles did not build as fast as most analysts had expected this summer.”
Read the full article here.