Yield Curve Update (Getting Closer to a Danger Zone)
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Yield Curve Update (Getting Closer to a Danger Zone)
- Jobs Day
Futures are modestly higher as the Senate moved forward on stimulus, so the positive market narrative of more stimulus and more vaccine continued overnight.
The Senate voted 51-50 (VP Harris breaking the tie) to move forward with the reconciliation process on a stimulus bill, meaning a $1.5T-$1.9T bill should pass in mid-March.
On the vaccine front, the FDA scheduled a Feb. 26th hearing to approve the JNJ single dose vaccine, so by March 1st there will be three COVID vaccines in the market.
Looking forward to today, the key number is the Jobs Report and estimates are for Job Adds of 50K and Unemployment Rate of 6.7%. Unless the number is very good (so over 400k jobs adds, UE rate sharply lower) or absolutely horrible (-100k job losses or more) it shouldn’t interrupt this week’s rally.