Was the Fed Decision Negative for the Market?
What’s in Today’s Report:
- Was Yesterday’s FOMC Decision A Negative for the Market?
- Why Did Stocks Fall After the Fed?
- Oil Market Update and Outlook (Back above $40/bbl).
Futures are moderately lower on momentum from Wednesday’s post-Fed fade in stocks.
Economically, EU HICP (their CPI) was the only notable release, and it met expectations (core HICP rose 0.2% y/y).
On the stimulus front, “chatter” is turning a bit more positive as Trump and Pelosi both made slightly positive comments on the process yesterday, but a stimulus bill before the election remains very unlikely.
Today the key number is Jobless Claims (E: 850K) and markets will want to see a solid number near the expectation of 850k. If claims tick back towards 1MM, that should add downside pressure to stocks as worries will begin to rise about another “Pause” in the economic recovery. We also get Housing Starts (E: 1.486M) and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 15.5), although they’d have to be big misses to move markets.